Rayo Vallecano 1-0 Alaves – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Rayo Vallecano at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Rayo Vallecano vs Alaves fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Alaves make the trip to Estadio de Vallecas to face Rayo Vallecano in La Liga, Regular Season - 11. The match kicks off on Saturday 26 October 2024 at 15:15 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Rayo Vallecano have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 La Liga outings this season: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: D D D W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Rayo Vallecano, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Rayo Vallecano's home record at Estadio de Vallecas: 4W 3D 3L from 10 La Liga appearances (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Alaves's overall La Liga record this term: 3W 1D 6L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: W L L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Alaves, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Alaves have gone 2W 1D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.30 for Rayo Vallecano, 1.00 for Alaves — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Rayo Vallecano lead 2W to 2W over the last 4 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 4 previous contests averaged 1.5 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 10 Mar 2024, ended 0–1 with Alaves winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Rayo Vallecano — key trading statistics (48 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
Alaves — key trading statistics (48 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Rayo Vallecano 42% versus Alaves 42%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Rayo Vallecano 40% | Alaves 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rayo Vallecano 1.76 xG and Alaves 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rayo Vallecano attack 0.975 / defence 0.999 | Alaves attack 1.053 / defence 1.238. League average goals — home 1.458 / away 1.109. Alaves bring a strong defensive rating of 1.238 — this is suppressing Rayo Vallecano's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 48 Rayo Vallecano games / 48 Alaves games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Rayo Vallecano 49% | Draw 28% | Alaves 23%. Fair-value odds: Rayo Vallecano 2.04 | Draw 3.57 | Alaves 4.35. Rayo Vallecano hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.93. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.93 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Rayo Vallecano are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Rayo Vallecano if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.93 combined xG gives a 56% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 1.5 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 59%. Form rates corroborate: Rayo Vallecano 60% | Alaves 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rayo Vallecano vs Alaves | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Estadio de Vallecas • Kick-off: Saturday 26 Oct 2024, 15:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rayo Vallecano 49% | Draw 28% | Alaves 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 59% | xG Rayo Vallecano 1.76 / Alaves 1.17 • Poisson strength factors: Rayo Vallecano attack 0.975 / def 0.999 | Alaves attack 1.053 / def 1.238 | league avg home 1.458 / away 1.109 • Poisson stance: Rayo Vallecano (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.76
Rayo Vallecano xG
Expected Goals
1.17
Alaves xG
59%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Rayo Vallecano vs Alaves kick off?
Rayo Vallecano vs Alaves kicked off at 15:15 on Saturday 26 October 2024 at Estadio de Vallecas.
What was the final score in Rayo Vallecano vs Alaves?
Rayo Vallecano 1 - 0 Alaves.
Where is Rayo Vallecano vs Alaves being played?
The match is being played at Estadio de Vallecas.
What competition is Rayo Vallecano vs Alaves part of?
Rayo Vallecano vs Alaves is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Rayo Vallecano vs Alaves?
Our statistical model gives Rayo Vallecano a 49% chance of winning, Alaves a 23% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Rayo Vallecano the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rayo Vallecano vs Alaves?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Rayo Vallecano and Alaves will score (BTTS).
Will Rayo Vallecano vs Alaves have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Rayo Vallecano and Alaves?
Record (4 meetings): Rayo Vallecano 2W | Draws 0 | Alaves 2W.
What form are Rayo Vallecano and Alaves in?
Rayo Vallecano (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-D-D-W-L. Alaves (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Rayo Vallecano's attack rating (0.97) and Alaves's defence rating (1.24), the model arrives at 1.76 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Alaves's attack (1.05x) against Rayo Vallecano's defence (1.00x) — and the away total comes out at 1.17.
These ratings are built from 48/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Rayo Vallecano Win
49%
2.04
28%
3.57
23%
4.35
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
1 – 0
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.76
Rayo Vallecano xG
Total xG
2.93
1.17
Alaves xG
2.04
49%
Home win
3.57
28%
Draw
4.35
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.69
41%
BTTS No
2.45
Clean Sheet
31%
3.21
17%
5.81
Win to Nil
15%
6.55
4%
25.28
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 6.3 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.4 | 11.0 | 6.4 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 9.7 | 5.6 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.9 | 5.7 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Rayo Vallecano vs Alaves?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are Rayo Vallecano and Alaves expected to score?
The model projects 1.76 expected goals for Rayo Vallecano and 1.17 for Alaves, a combined total of 2.93.
How confident is the prediction model for Rayo Vallecano vs Alaves?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Rayo Vallecano come into this having played 48 games, going 11W 18D 19L for 1.06 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-D-W-L. The sample for Rayo Vallecano is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Alaves sit at 1.17 PPG from 48 outings (15W 11D 22L), a run that reads W-L-L-L-L across their last five. The sample for Alaves is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.06 PPG for Rayo Vallecano against 1.17 for Alaves. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Rayo Vallecano's home form reads 5W 10D 8L across 23 games on their own ground, a 1.09 PPG return.
Away from home, Alaves have taken 0.78 points per game from 23 outings (4W 6D 13L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Rayo Vallecano are averaging 0.83 goals scored and 1.21 conceded per game recently; Alaves are on 1.02 scored and 1.33 conceded.
Last 48 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rayo Vallecano
Blended
Alaves
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Rayo Vallecano and Alaves in coming into this match?
Rayo Vallecano have gone 11W 18D 19L in their last 48 games (1.06 PPG), while Alaves have gone 15W 11D 22L in their last 48 (1.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rayo Vallecano at home or Alaves away?
Rayo Vallecano's home record (1.09 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rayo Vallecano at home: 1.09 PPG; Alaves away: 0.78 PPG.
Have Rayo Vallecano or Alaves been keeping clean sheets recently?
Rayo Vallecano have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Alaves in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 9 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. The two were last together as recently as 20 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Rayo Vallecano have gone 4W 1D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Alaves — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
6
Rayo Vallecano
1
Draws
2
Alaves
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Rayo Vallecano and Alaves?
From 9 meetings on record, Rayo Vallecano have won 6, Alaves have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Rayo Vallecano and Alaves last play each other?
They last met on 20 August 2026, when Rayo Vallecano 1-1 Alaves.
Who has won more matches between Rayo Vallecano and Alaves?
Rayo Vallecano have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Rayo Vallecano are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Alaves are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Rayo Vallecano 61%, Alaves 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 39% (Rayo Vallecano) and 44% (Alaves).
On the defensive side: Rayo Vallecano have failed to score in 30% of games; Alaves in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rayo Vallecano home games / Alaves away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Rayo Vallecano play Alaves?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 61% of Rayo Vallecano's recent matches and 48% of Alaves's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Rayo Vallecano vs Alaves usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 39% of Rayo Vallecano's recent games and 44% of Alaves's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Rayo Vallecano and Alaves tend to score early?
Rayo Vallecano have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Alaves in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Rayo Vallecano edge out Alaves 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Rayo Vallecano beat Alaves 1-0 at Estadio de Vallecas, Regular Season - 11, in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rayo Vallecano 1.76 xG and Alaves 1.17 xG, a combined 2.93. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Alaves landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rayo Vallecano attack 0.97 / defence 1.00 against Alaves attack 1.05 / defence 1.24, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Rayo Vallecano 49% | Draw 28% | Alaves 23%, with Rayo Vallecano to win its most likely call at 49%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 81% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rayo Vallecano 40%, Alaves 38%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rayo Vallecano's trading profile (48 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.
Alaves's trading profile (48 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Rayo Vallecano 1.06 PPG, Alaves 1.17 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Rayo Vallecano win broke the near-deadlock. Rayo Vallecano (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.35 average — tighter than their form line. Alaves (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.87 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.