Oviedo 1-0 Valencia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Valencia at 40% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Oviedo vs Valencia encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Oviedo and Valencia meet at Estadio Nuevo Carlos Tartiere in La Liga, Regular Season - 28. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 14 March 2026 at 17:30 UTC.
Current Form
Oviedo's overall La Liga record this term: 1W 4D 5L from 10 games (0.70 PPG). Last five: L D L L D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Oviedo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Oviedo's form when playing at home: 1W 5D 4L across 10 games at Estadio Nuevo Carlos Tartiere this term (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.30 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estadio Nuevo Carlos Tartiere. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Valencia (all games): 5W 1D 4L across 10 La Liga outings this term — 1.60 points per game. Last five: L W L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Valencia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in La Liga this season, Valencia have posted 2W 2D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Valencia arrive in superior form — a 0.90 PPG advantage (1.60 vs 0.70) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Oviedo, 0 for Valencia and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 30 Sep 2025, ended 2–1 with Oviedo winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Oviedo — key trading statistics (27 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 38% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 23% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 23% of games (home games); they fail to score in 59% of games.
Valencia — key trading statistics (27 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Oviedo 33% versus Valencia 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Oviedo 37% | Valencia 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Oviedo 0.84 xG and Valencia 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Oviedo attack 0.516 / defence 0.998 | Valencia attack 0.966 / defence 1.069. League average goals — home 1.515 / away 1.124. Oviedo's attack strength of 0.516 is below the league average — the 0.84 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 27 Oviedo games / 65 Valencia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Oviedo 27% | Draw 32% | Valencia 40%. Fair-value odds: Oviedo 3.70 | Draw 3.12 | Valencia 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 30% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 1.92. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 70% probability — total xG of 1.92 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Valencia are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Valencia if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.92 combined xG gives a 30% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 38%. Form rates corroborate: Oviedo 20% | Valencia 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Oviedo vs Valencia | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Estadio Nuevo Carlos Tartiere • Kick-off: Saturday 14 Mar 2026, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Oviedo 27% | Draw 32% | Valencia 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 30% | BTTS 38% | xG Oviedo 0.84 / Valencia 1.08 • Poisson strength factors: Oviedo attack 0.516 / def 0.998 | Valencia attack 0.966 / def 1.069 | league avg home 1.515 / away 1.124 • Poisson stance: Valencia (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.84
Oviedo xG
Expected Goals
1.08
Valencia xG
38%
BTTS
58%
Over 1.5
30%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Oviedo vs Valencia kick off?
Oviedo vs Valencia kicked off at 17:30 on Saturday 14 March 2026 at Estadio Nuevo Carlos Tartiere.
What was the final score in Oviedo vs Valencia?
Oviedo 1 - 0 Valencia.
Where is Oviedo vs Valencia being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Nuevo Carlos Tartiere.
What competition is Oviedo vs Valencia part of?
Oviedo vs Valencia is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Oviedo vs Valencia?
Our statistical model gives Oviedo a 27% chance of winning, Valencia a 40% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Valencia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Oviedo vs Valencia?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both Oviedo and Valencia will score (BTTS).
Will Oviedo vs Valencia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 30%.
What is the head-to-head record between Oviedo and Valencia?
Record (1 meetings): Oviedo 1W | Draws 0 | Valencia 0W.
What form are Oviedo and Valencia in?
Oviedo (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-D-L-L-D. Valencia (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Oviedo's attack at 0.52x the league average against Valencia's defence at 1.07x — combine the two and it projects 0.84 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Valencia's attack (0.97x) against Oviedo's defence (1.00x) — and the away total comes out at 1.08.
These ratings are built from 27/65 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 16.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (15.0%), 0-1 (14.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Valencia Win
27%
3.67
32%
3.09
40%
2.48
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.9%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.7%
Draw
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.84
Oviedo xG
Total xG
1.92
1.08
Valencia xG
3.67
27%
Home win
3.09
32%
Draw
2.48
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
57%
Over 1.5
1.75
43%
Under 1.5
2.33
30%
Over 2.5
3.33
70%
Under 2.5
1.43
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.63
62%
BTTS No
1.61
Clean Sheet
34%
2.95
43%
2.31
Win to Nil
9%
10.83
18%
5.71
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.7 | 15.9 | 8.6 | 3.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.3 | 13.3 | 7.2 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 5.6 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Oviedo vs Valencia?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.4%.
How many goals are Oviedo and Valencia expected to score?
The model projects 0.84 expected goals for Oviedo and 1.08 for Valencia, a combined total of 1.92.
How confident is the prediction model for Oviedo vs Valencia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Oviedo come into this having played 27 games, going 3W 9D 15L for 0.67 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-L-D. The sample for Oviedo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Valencia sit at 1.19 PPG from 27 outings (8W 8D 11L), a run that reads L-W-L-W-W across their last five. The sample for Valencia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Valencia carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.52 PPG clear of Oviedo — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Oviedo's home form reads 2W 5D 6L across 13 games on their own ground, a 0.85 PPG return.
Away from home, Valencia have taken 0.69 points per game from 13 outings (2W 3D 8L). That's a step down from their 1.19 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Valencia's season.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Oviedo are averaging 0.63 goals scored and 1.63 conceded per game recently; Valencia are on 1.11 scored and 1.52 conceded.
Last 27 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Oviedo
Blended
Valencia
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Oviedo and Valencia in coming into this match?
Oviedo have gone 3W 9D 15L in their last 27 games (0.67 PPG), while Valencia have gone 8W 8D 11L in their last 27 (1.19 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Oviedo at home or Valencia away?
Oviedo's home record (0.85 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Oviedo at home: 0.85 PPG; Valencia away: 0.69 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since September 2025 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. They last met on 14 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Oviedo
0
Draws
0
Valencia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Oviedo and Valencia?
From 2 meetings on record, Oviedo have won 2, Valencia have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Oviedo and Valencia last play each other?
They last met on 14 March 2026, when Oviedo 1-0 Valencia.
Who has won more matches between Oviedo and Valencia?
Oviedo have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Oviedo see a goal before the break in 38% of their matches.
Valencia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Oviedo 23%, Valencia 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 23% (Oviedo) and 62% (Valencia).
On the defensive side: Oviedo keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches; Oviedo have failed to score in 62% of games; Valencia in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Oviedo home games / Valencia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Oviedo play Valencia?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 23% of Oviedo's recent matches and 54% of Valencia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Oviedo vs Valencia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 23% of Oviedo's recent games and 62% of Valencia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Oviedo and Valencia tend to score early?
Oviedo have had a goal before half-time in 38% of their recent matches, Valencia in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Oviedo defy the odds to beat Valencia 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Oviedo beat Valencia 1-0 at Estadio Nuevo Carlos Tartiere, Regular Season - 28, in the La Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Oviedo 0.84 xG and Valencia 1.08 xG, a combined 1.92. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Valencia landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Oviedo attack 0.52 / defence 1.00 against Valencia attack 0.97 / defence 1.07, drawn from 27/65 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Oviedo 27% | Draw 32% | Valencia 40%, with Valencia to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Oviedo win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 58% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Oviedo 37%, Valencia 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Oviedo's trading profile (27 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did not.
Valencia's trading profile (27 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Valencia arrived the stronger side — 1.19 PPG against 0.67. Form was overturned, with Oviedo winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Oviedo (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.08 average — tighter than their form line. Valencia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.85 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.