Oviedo 0-0 Osasuna – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Osasuna at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Oviedo vs Osasuna fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Oviedo host Osasuna at Estadio Nuevo Carlos Tartiere in La Liga, Regular Season - 11. Kick-off is scheduled for Monday 3 November 2025 at 20:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Oviedo — All Games: 2W 1D 7L from 10 La Liga outings this season, averaging 0.70 points per game. Last five: L W L L D. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Oviedo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Oviedo at Estadio Nuevo Carlos Tartiere this season: 1W 0D 4L from 5 home games — 0.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.40 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across all La Liga games this season, Osasuna have recorded 3W 1D 6L from 10 outings — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D L W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Osasuna, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Osasuna away from home this season: 1W 3D 6L from 10 away games — 0.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Oviedo at 0.70 PPG versus Osasuna's 1.00. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Trading Patterns
Oviedo in-play and half-time data (10 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 20% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 60% of games.
Osasuna in-play and half-time data (10 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 40% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; they lead at the break 50% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 30% of the time; BTTS occurs in 20% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Oviedo 30% | Osasuna 40%). Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Oviedo 40% | Osasuna 30%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Oviedo 0.71 xG and Osasuna 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Oviedo attack 0.560 / defence 1.366 | Osasuna attack 0.711 / defence 0.878. League average goals — home 1.444 / away 1.162. Oviedo's attack strength of 0.560 is below the league average — the 0.71 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 10 Oviedo games / 48 Osasuna games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Oviedo 23% | Draw 32% | Osasuna 45%. Fair-value odds: Oviedo 4.35 | Draw 3.12 | Osasuna 2.22. Osasuna hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (32%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 28% | BTTS probability 35% | Total xG 1.84. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 72% probability — total xG of 1.84 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 65% — Oviedo's lower xG of 0.71 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 35%.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Osasuna are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Osasuna offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 1.84 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 28% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 35%. Form rates corroborate: Oviedo 20% | Osasuna 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Oviedo vs Osasuna | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Estadio Nuevo Carlos Tartiere • Kick-off: Monday 3 Nov 2025, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Oviedo 23% | Draw 32% | Osasuna 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 28% | BTTS 35% | xG Oviedo 0.71 / Osasuna 1.13 • Poisson strength factors: Oviedo attack 0.560 / def 1.366 | Osasuna attack 0.711 / def 0.878 | league avg home 1.444 / away 1.162 • Poisson stance: Osasuna (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.71
Oviedo xG
Expected Goals
1.13
Osasuna xG
35%
BTTS
55%
Over 1.5
28%
Over 2.5
11%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Oviedo vs Osasuna kick off?
Oviedo vs Osasuna kicked off at 20:00 on Monday 3 November 2025 at Estadio Nuevo Carlos Tartiere.
What was the final score in Oviedo vs Osasuna?
Oviedo 0 - 0 Osasuna.
Where is Oviedo vs Osasuna being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Nuevo Carlos Tartiere.
What competition is Oviedo vs Osasuna part of?
Oviedo vs Osasuna is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Oviedo vs Osasuna?
Our statistical model gives Oviedo a 23% chance of winning, Osasuna a 45% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Osasuna the favourite.
Will both teams score in Oviedo vs Osasuna?
Our model estimates a 35% probability that both Oviedo and Osasuna will score (BTTS).
Will Oviedo vs Osasuna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 28%.
What is the head-to-head record between Oviedo and Osasuna?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Oviedo and Osasuna in?
Oviedo (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-W-L-L-D. Osasuna (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Oviedo's attack at 0.56x the league average against Osasuna's defence at 0.88x — combine the two and it projects 0.71 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Osasuna's attack versus Oviedo's defence, projects 1.13 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 10/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 17.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (16.3%), 1-1 (14.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 48% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Osasuna Win
23%
4.40
32%
3.13
45%
2.21
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
18.0%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
15.9%
Draw
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.71
Oviedo xG
Total xG
1.84
1.13
Osasuna xG
4.40
23%
Home win
3.13
32%
Draw
2.21
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
55%
Over 1.5
1.82
45%
Under 1.5
2.22
28%
Over 2.5
3.57
72%
Under 2.5
1.39
11%
Over 3.5
9.09
89%
Under 3.5
1.12
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
35%
BTTS Yes
2.89
65%
BTTS No
1.53
Clean Sheet
32%
3.09
49%
2.03
Win to Nil
7%
13.61
22%
4.48
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.9 | 18.0 | 10.1 | 3.8 | 1.1 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.3 | 12.7 | 7.2 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 4.0 | 4.5 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Oviedo vs Osasuna?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.6%.
How many goals are Oviedo and Osasuna expected to score?
The model projects 0.71 expected goals for Oviedo and 1.13 for Osasuna, a combined total of 1.84.
How confident is the prediction model for Oviedo vs Osasuna?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Oviedo come into this having played 10 games, going 2W 1D 7L for 0.70 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-L-D. The sample for Oviedo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Osasuna sit at 1.00 PPG from 10 outings (3W 1D 6L), a run that reads D-L-W-L-L across their last five. The sample for Osasuna is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Oviedo on 0.70 PPG, Osasuna on 1.00. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Oviedo's home form reads 1W 0D 4L across 5 games on their own ground, a 0.60 PPG return.
Away from home, Osasuna have taken 0.00 points per game from 5 outings (0W 0D 5L). That's a step down from their 1.00 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Osasuna's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Oviedo come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Oviedo are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game recently; Osasuna are on 0.90 scored and 1.20 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Oviedo have seen both teams score in 30% of their recent games.
Last 10 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Oviedo
Blended
Osasuna
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Oviedo and Osasuna in coming into this match?
Oviedo have gone 2W 1D 7L in their last 10 games (0.70 PPG), while Osasuna have gone 3W 1D 6L in their last 10 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Oviedo at home or Osasuna away?
Oviedo's home record (0.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Oviedo at home: 0.60 PPG; Osasuna away: 0.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Oviedo and Osasuna runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. They last met on 17 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Oviedo
1
Draws
1
Osasuna
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Oviedo and Osasuna?
From 2 meetings on record, Oviedo have won 0, Osasuna have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Oviedo and Osasuna last play each other?
They last met on 17 January 2026, when Osasuna 3-2 Oviedo.
Who has won more matches between Oviedo and Osasuna?
Osasuna have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Oviedo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Osasuna see a goal before the break in 40% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Oviedo 20% BTTS, Osasuna 20%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 40% for Oviedo and 20% for Osasuna.
On the defensive side: Oviedo have failed to score in 60% of games; Osasuna in 80%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Oviedo home games / Osasuna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Oviedo play Osasuna?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 20% of Oviedo's recent matches and 20% of Osasuna's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Oviedo vs Osasuna usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Oviedo's recent games and 20% of Osasuna's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Oviedo and Osasuna tend to score early?
Oviedo have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Osasuna in 40% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Oviedo's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Estadio Nuevo Carlos Tartiere, Regular Season - 11, as Oviedo and Osasuna drew 0-0 in the La Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Oviedo 0.71 xG and Osasuna 1.13 xG, a combined 1.84. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Osasuna landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Oviedo attack 0.56 / defence 1.37 against Osasuna attack 0.71 / defence 0.88, drawn from 10/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Oviedo 23% | Draw 32% | Osasuna 45%, with Osasuna to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 28%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 55% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 35% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 35% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Oviedo 40%, Osasuna 30%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 35%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Oviedo's trading profile (10 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 30% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 60% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Osasuna's trading profile (10 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Oviedo 0.70 PPG, Osasuna 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Oviedo (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line. Osasuna (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.40 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.