Osasuna 1-3 Real Betis – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Real Betis at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Osasuna vs Real Betis fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Estadio El Sadar plays host to Osasuna versus Real Betis in La Liga, Regular Season - 6. Kick-off: Thursday 23 September 2021 at 18:30 UTC.
Current Form
Osasuna's overall La Liga record this term: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: D D W L W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 5 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Osasuna have played only a handful of La Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Osasuna at Estadio El Sadar this season: 0W 2D 1L from 3 home games — 0.67 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.33 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game. 2 clean sheets from 3 home games (67%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estadio El Sadar. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.67 lags behind their overall 1.60 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Estadio El Sadar this season.
Real Betis (all games): 1W 3D 1L across 5 La Liga outings this term — 1.20 points per game. Last five: D D L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Real Betis have played only a handful of La Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.60 vs 1.20 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Trading
Osasuna half-time and goal-timing data (5 games): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games; Over 3.5 in 40%; they keep a clean sheet 60% of the time; they fail to score in 40% of games.
Real Betis half-time and goal-timing data (5 games): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Osasuna 40% and Real Betis 80% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Osasuna 40% | Real Betis 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Osasuna 0.80 xG and Real Betis 1.37 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Osasuna attack 0.685 / defence 1.247 | Real Betis attack 0.978 / defence 1.153. League average goals — home 1.014 / away 1.121. Osasuna's attack strength of 0.685 is below the league average — the 0.80 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 5 Osasuna games / 5 Real Betis games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Osasuna 18% | Draw 35% | Real Betis 46%. Fair-value odds: Osasuna 5.56 | Draw 2.86 | Real Betis 2.17. Real Betis hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (35%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.17. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.17 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Real Betis as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 35% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Real Betis if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.17 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 37% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 45% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Osasuna 33% | Real Betis 80%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Osasuna vs Real Betis | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Estadio El Sadar • Kick-off: Thursday 23 Sep 2021, 18:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Osasuna 18% | Draw 35% | Real Betis 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 45% | xG Osasuna 0.80 / Real Betis 1.37 • Poisson strength factors: Osasuna attack 0.685 / def 1.247 | Real Betis attack 0.978 / def 1.153 | league avg home 1.014 / away 1.121 • Poisson stance: Real Betis (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.80
Osasuna xG
Expected Goals
1.37
Real Betis xG
45%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Osasuna vs Real Betis kick off?
Osasuna vs Real Betis kicked off at 18:30 on Thursday 23 September 2021 at Estadio El Sadar.
What was the final score in Osasuna vs Real Betis?
Osasuna 1 - 3 Real Betis.
Where is Osasuna vs Real Betis being played?
The match is being played at Estadio El Sadar.
What competition is Osasuna vs Real Betis part of?
Osasuna vs Real Betis is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Osasuna vs Real Betis?
Our statistical model gives Osasuna a 18% chance of winning, Real Betis a 46% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making Real Betis the favourite.
Will both teams score in Osasuna vs Real Betis?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Osasuna and Real Betis will score (BTTS).
Will Osasuna vs Real Betis have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Osasuna and Real Betis?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Osasuna and Real Betis in?
Osasuna (all comps): 2W-2D-1L in 5 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-D-W-L-W. Real Betis (all comps): 1W-3D-1L in 5 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-D-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Osasuna's attack at 0.69x the league average against Real Betis's defence at 1.15x — combine the two and it projects 0.80 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Real Betis's attack (0.98x) against Osasuna's defence (1.25x) — and the away total comes out at 1.37.
These ratings are built from 5/5 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (14.0%), 0-0 (13.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Real Betis Win
18%
5.48
35%
2.84
46%
2.15
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.6%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
0 – 0
11.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.80
Osasuna xG
Total xG
2.17
1.37
Real Betis xG
5.48
18%
Home win
2.84
35%
Draw
2.15
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.23
55%
BTTS No
1.81
Clean Sheet
25%
3.92
45%
2.23
Win to Nil
5%
21.49
21%
4.79
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.4 | 15.6 | 10.7 | 4.9 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 9.2 | 12.5 | 8.6 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 3.7 | 5.0 | 3.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Osasuna vs Real Betis?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Osasuna and Real Betis expected to score?
The model projects 0.80 expected goals for Osasuna and 1.37 for Real Betis, a combined total of 2.17.
How confident is the prediction model for Osasuna vs Real Betis?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Osasuna's recent record stands at 2W 2D 1L from 5 games, a 1.60 PPG return, with D-D-W-L-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Osasuna, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Real Betis, meanwhile, have gone 1W 3D 1L across 5 games — 1.20 PPG, with D-D-L-W-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for Real Betis, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Osasuna by 0.40 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Real Betis heading into this one.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Osasuna are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game recently; Real Betis are on 1.20 scored and 1.20 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Real Betis in 80%.
Defensively: Osasuna have kept a clean sheet in 60% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 5 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Osasuna
Early Season
Real Betis
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Osasuna and Real Betis in coming into this match?
Osasuna have gone 2W 2D 1L in their last 5 games (1.60 PPG), while Real Betis have gone 1W 3D 1L in their last 5 (1.20 PPG).
Have Osasuna or Real Betis been keeping clean sheets recently?
Osasuna have kept a clean sheet in 60% of their recent games, Real Betis in 0%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. They last met on 12 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Real Betis won 4-1 on 3 Apr 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Osasuna have gone 1W 1D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Real Betis — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Osasuna
2
Draws
7
Real Betis
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Osasuna and Real Betis?
From 10 meetings on record, Osasuna have won 1, Real Betis have won 7, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Osasuna and Real Betis last play each other?
They last met on 12 April 2026, when Osasuna 1-1 Real Betis.
Who has won more matches between Osasuna and Real Betis?
Real Betis have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Osasuna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Real Betis are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Osasuna 40%, Real Betis 80% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Osasuna) and 40% (Real Betis).
On the defensive side: Osasuna keep a clean sheet in 60% of their matches; Osasuna have failed to score in 40% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Osasuna home games / Real Betis away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Osasuna play Real Betis?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 40% of Osasuna's games and 80% of Real Betis's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Osasuna vs Real Betis usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Osasuna's recent games and 40% of Real Betis's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Osasuna and Real Betis tend to score early?
Osasuna have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Real Betis in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Real Betis cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Osasuna.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Real Betis beat Osasuna 1-3 at Estadio El Sadar, Regular Season - 6, in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Osasuna 0.80 xG and Real Betis 1.37 xG, a combined 2.17. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Real Betis outscored their 1.37 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Osasuna attack 0.69 / defence 1.25 against Real Betis attack 0.98 / defence 1.15, drawn from 5/5 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Osasuna 18% | Draw 35% | Real Betis 46%, with Real Betis to win its most likely call at 46%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. Over 3.5 was 17% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Osasuna 40%, Real Betis 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Osasuna's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 60% of the time, and conceded here.
Real Betis's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 80% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Osasuna arrived the stronger side — 1.60 PPG against 1.20. Form was overturned, with Real Betis winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Osasuna shipped 3 against a 1.20 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Real Betis scored 3 against a 1.20 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.