Osasuna 2-1 Rayo Vallecano – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Rayo Vallecano at 34%, yet other data sources diverge — this Osasuna vs Rayo Vallecano fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A La Liga encounter, Regular Season - 4 sees Rayo Vallecano travel to Estadio El Sadar to take on Osasuna. The game is scheduled for Sunday 4 September 2022, 13:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Osasuna stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 La Liga matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L L W W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Osasuna have played only a handful of La Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Osasuna's form when playing at home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 games at Estadio El Sadar this term (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Osasuna are significantly better at Estadio El Sadar than their overall form suggests.
Rayo Vallecano — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 La Liga fixtures this season — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L L D W L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Rayo Vallecano have played only a handful of La Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Rayo Vallecano have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.20 PPG (Osasuna) versus 1.20 (Rayo Vallecano). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Osasuna, 0 for Rayo Vallecano and 0 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 12 Feb 2022, ended 3–0 with Osasuna winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Osasuna trading profile (41 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
Rayo Vallecano trading profile (41 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Osasuna 42% versus Rayo Vallecano 42%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Osasuna 37% | Rayo Vallecano 37%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Osasuna 0.97 xG and Rayo Vallecano 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Osasuna attack 1.082 / defence 0.926 | Rayo Vallecano attack 0.884 / defence 0.761. League average goals — home 1.184 / away 1.204. Rayo Vallecano's defence strength of 0.761 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 41 Osasuna games / 41 Rayo Vallecano games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Osasuna 33% | Draw 33% | Rayo Vallecano 34%. Fair-value odds: Osasuna 3.03 | Draw 3.03 | Rayo Vallecano 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 1.96. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.96 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Rayo Vallecano as the most likely outcome at 34% — marginal model lean. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Rayo Vallecano offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 1.96 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 31% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 40% on No. Form rates corroborate: Osasuna 40% | Rayo Vallecano 30% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Osasuna vs Rayo Vallecano | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Estadio El Sadar • Kick-off: Sunday 4 Sep 2022, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Osasuna 33% | Draw 33% | Rayo Vallecano 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% | BTTS 40% | xG Osasuna 0.97 / Rayo Vallecano 0.99 • Poisson strength factors: Osasuna attack 1.082 / def 0.926 | Rayo Vallecano attack 0.884 / def 0.761 | league avg home 1.184 / away 1.204 • Poisson stance: Rayo Vallecano (34%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.97
Osasuna xG
Expected Goals
0.99
Rayo Vallecano xG
40%
BTTS
59%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Osasuna vs Rayo Vallecano kick off?
Osasuna vs Rayo Vallecano kicked off at 13:00 on Sunday 4 September 2022 at Estadio El Sadar.
What was the final score in Osasuna vs Rayo Vallecano?
Osasuna 2 - 1 Rayo Vallecano.
Where is Osasuna vs Rayo Vallecano being played?
The match is being played at Estadio El Sadar.
What competition is Osasuna vs Rayo Vallecano part of?
Osasuna vs Rayo Vallecano is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Osasuna vs Rayo Vallecano?
Our statistical model gives Osasuna a 33% chance of winning, Rayo Vallecano a 34% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Rayo Vallecano the favourite.
Will both teams score in Osasuna vs Rayo Vallecano?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Osasuna and Rayo Vallecano will score (BTTS).
Will Osasuna vs Rayo Vallecano have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%.
What is the head-to-head record between Osasuna and Rayo Vallecano?
Record (2 meetings): Osasuna 2W | Draws 0 | Rayo Vallecano 0W.
What form are Osasuna and Rayo Vallecano in?
Osasuna (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-W-W-L. Rayo Vallecano (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Osasuna's attack rating (1.08) and Rayo Vallecano's defence rating (0.76), the model arrives at 0.97 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Rayo Vallecano's attack versus Osasuna's defence, projects 0.99 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 41/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.8%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.3%), 0-1 (12.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Rayo Vallecano Win
33%
3.01
33%
3.03
34%
2.96
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
14.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
13.9%
Away win
1 – 0
13.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.97
Osasuna xG
Total xG
1.96
0.99
Rayo Vallecano xG
3.01
33%
Home win
3.03
33%
Draw
2.96
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
58%
Over 1.5
1.72
42%
Under 1.5
2.38
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.50
60%
BTTS No
1.66
Clean Sheet
37%
2.68
38%
2.65
Win to Nil
12%
8.07
13%
7.85
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.1 | 13.9 | 6.8 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.7 | 13.5 | 6.7 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 6.6 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Osasuna vs Rayo Vallecano?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.8%.
How many goals are Osasuna and Rayo Vallecano expected to score?
The model projects 0.97 expected goals for Osasuna and 0.99 for Rayo Vallecano, a combined total of 1.96.
How confident is the prediction model for Osasuna vs Rayo Vallecano?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 34%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 41 outings, Osasuna have picked up 1.29 PPG on a 14W 11D 16L record — L-L-W-W-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Osasuna, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Rayo Vallecano's form line: 12W 10D 19L from 41 games, 1.12 PPG, last five L-L-D-W-L. It's still early in the season for Rayo Vallecano, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Osasuna on 1.29 PPG, Rayo Vallecano on 1.12. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Osasuna have posted 1.33 PPG from 21 outings (7W 7D 7L).
On the road, Rayo Vallecano have gone 4W 5D 12L from 21 away games — 0.81 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Osasuna come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Osasuna are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; Rayo Vallecano are on 1.00 scored and 1.27 conceded.
Last 41 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Osasuna
Early Season
Rayo Vallecano
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Osasuna and Rayo Vallecano in coming into this match?
Osasuna have gone 14W 11D 16L in their last 41 games (1.29 PPG), while Rayo Vallecano have gone 12W 10D 19L in their last 41 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Osasuna at home or Rayo Vallecano away?
Osasuna's home record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Osasuna at home: 1.33 PPG; Rayo Vallecano away: 0.81 PPG.
Have Osasuna or Rayo Vallecano been keeping clean sheets recently?
Osasuna have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Rayo Vallecano in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Osasuna and Rayo Vallecano runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. They last met on 24 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Osasuna have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 12 Feb 2022, when Osasuna won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Osasuna's record when hosting Rayo Vallecano specifically: 4W 1D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Osasuna
1
Draws
3
Rayo Vallecano
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Osasuna and Rayo Vallecano?
From 10 meetings on record, Osasuna have won 6, Rayo Vallecano have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Osasuna and Rayo Vallecano last play each other?
They last met on 24 January 2026, when Rayo Vallecano 1-3 Osasuna.
Who has won more matches between Osasuna and Rayo Vallecano?
Osasuna have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Osasuna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
Rayo Vallecano are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Osasuna 48%, Rayo Vallecano 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Osasuna) and 33% (Rayo Vallecano).
On the defensive side: Osasuna keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Osasuna have failed to score in 29% of games; Rayo Vallecano in 48%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Osasuna home games / Rayo Vallecano away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Osasuna play Rayo Vallecano?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Osasuna's recent matches and 38% of Rayo Vallecano's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Osasuna vs Rayo Vallecano usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Osasuna's recent games and 33% of Rayo Vallecano's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Osasuna and Rayo Vallecano tend to score early?
Osasuna have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Rayo Vallecano in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Osasuna defy the odds to beat Rayo Vallecano 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Osasuna beat Rayo Vallecano 2-1 at Estadio El Sadar, Regular Season - 4, in the La Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Osasuna 0.97 xG and Rayo Vallecano 0.99 xG, a combined 1.96. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Osasuna beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Osasuna attack 1.08 / defence 0.93 against Rayo Vallecano attack 0.88 / defence 0.76, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Osasuna 33% | Draw 33% | Rayo Vallecano 34%, with Rayo Vallecano to win its most likely call at 34%. The actual Osasuna win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 59% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 37% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Osasuna 37%, Rayo Vallecano 37%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Osasuna's trading profile (41 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Rayo Vallecano's trading profile (41 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Osasuna 1.29 PPG, Rayo Vallecano 1.12 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Osasuna win broke the near-deadlock. Osasuna (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.