Osasuna 0-2 Getafe – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Osasuna at 65% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Osasuna vs Getafe encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Osasuna host Getafe at Estadio El Sadar in La Liga, Regular Season - 6. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 18 September 2022 at 13:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all La Liga games this season, Osasuna have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: W W L W W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Osasuna have played only a handful of La Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Estadio El Sadar, Osasuna have gone 6W 1D 3L this season (10 games, 1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Getafe — All Games: 1W 5D 4L from 10 La Liga fixtures this season — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L D L W. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Getafe have played only a handful of La Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Getafe have gone 1W 3D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Osasuna carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.70 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.50 vs 0.80. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Osasuna, 1 for Getafe and 1 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.5 per contest from 2 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 11 May 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Osasuna trading profile (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
Getafe trading profile (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 36% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (away games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Osasuna 42% versus Getafe 40%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Osasuna 37% | Getafe 37%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Osasuna 2.20 xG and Getafe 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Osasuna attack 1.081 / defence 0.905 | Getafe attack 0.917 / defence 1.484. League average goals — home 1.369 / away 1.200. Getafe bring a strong defensive rating of 1.484 — this is suppressing Osasuna's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 43 Osasuna games / 43 Getafe games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Osasuna 65% | Draw 19% | Getafe 16%. Fair-value odds: Osasuna 1.54 | Draw 5.26 | Getafe 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Osasuna (65%) — a 49pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 3.19. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.19 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Osasuna as the most likely outcome at 65% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.19 combined xG gives a 62% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Osasuna 50% | Getafe 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Osasuna vs Getafe | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Estadio El Sadar • Kick-off: Sunday 18 Sep 2022, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Osasuna 65% | Draw 19% | Getafe 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 56% | xG Osasuna 2.20 / Getafe 0.99 • Poisson strength factors: Osasuna attack 1.081 / def 0.905 | Getafe attack 0.917 / def 1.484 | league avg home 1.369 / away 1.200 • Poisson stance: Osasuna (65%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.20
Osasuna xG
Expected Goals
0.99
Getafe xG
56%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Osasuna vs Getafe kick off?
Osasuna vs Getafe kicked off at 13:00 on Sunday 18 September 2022 at Estadio El Sadar.
What was the final score in Osasuna vs Getafe?
Osasuna 0 - 2 Getafe.
Where is Osasuna vs Getafe being played?
The match is being played at Estadio El Sadar.
What competition is Osasuna vs Getafe part of?
Osasuna vs Getafe is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Osasuna vs Getafe?
Our statistical model gives Osasuna a 65% chance of winning, Getafe a 16% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Osasuna the favourite.
Will both teams score in Osasuna vs Getafe?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Osasuna and Getafe will score (BTTS).
Will Osasuna vs Getafe have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between Osasuna and Getafe?
Record (2 meetings): Osasuna 0W | Draws 1 | Getafe 1W.
What form are Osasuna and Getafe in?
Osasuna (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-L-W-W. Getafe (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Osasuna's attack at 1.08x the league average against Getafe's defence at 1.48x — combine the two and it projects 2.20 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Getafe's attack versus Osasuna's defence, projects 0.99 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 43/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (9.9%), 2-1 (9.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Osasuna Win
65%
1.55
19%
5.16
16%
6.27
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
9.9%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
1 – 0
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.20
Osasuna xG
Total xG
3.19
0.99
Getafe xG
1.55
65%
Home win
5.16
19%
Draw
6.27
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.78
44%
BTTS No
2.27
Clean Sheet
37%
2.70
11%
9.00
Win to Nil
24%
4.18
2%
56.38
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.1 | 4.1 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 9.0 | 9.0 | 4.5 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.9 | 9.9 | 4.9 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.3 | 7.2 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Osasuna vs Getafe?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.1%.
How many goals are Osasuna and Getafe expected to score?
The model projects 2.20 expected goals for Osasuna and 0.99 for Getafe, a combined total of 3.19.
How confident is the prediction model for Osasuna vs Getafe?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 65%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Osasuna's recent record stands at 16W 11D 16L from 43 games, a 1.37 PPG return, with W-W-L-W-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Osasuna, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Getafe, meanwhile, have gone 9W 16D 18L across 43 games — 1.00 PPG, with L-L-D-L-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Getafe, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Osasuna on 1.37 PPG, Getafe on 1.00. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Osasuna have managed 8W 6D 7L from 21 games — 1.43 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Getafe's away record stands at 1W 8D 12L across 21 trips, a 0.52 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.00 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Getafe's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Osasuna come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Osasuna are averaging 1.02 goals scored and 1.26 conceded per game recently; Getafe are on 0.86 scored and 1.23 conceded.
Last 43 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Osasuna
Early Season
Getafe
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Osasuna and Getafe in coming into this match?
Osasuna have gone 16W 11D 16L in their last 43 games (1.37 PPG), while Getafe have gone 9W 16D 18L in their last 43 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Osasuna at home or Getafe away?
Osasuna's home record (1.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Osasuna at home: 1.43 PPG; Getafe away: 0.52 PPG.
Have Osasuna or Getafe been keeping clean sheets recently?
Osasuna have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Getafe in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. The two were last together as recently as 23 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Osasuna's record when hosting Getafe specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Osasuna
2
Draws
6
Getafe
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Osasuna and Getafe?
From 10 meetings on record, Osasuna have won 2, Getafe have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Osasuna and Getafe last play each other?
They last met on 23 May 2026, when Getafe 1-0 Osasuna.
Who has won more matches between Osasuna and Getafe?
Getafe have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Osasuna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
Getafe are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Osasuna 52%, Getafe 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Osasuna) and 29% (Getafe).
On the defensive side: Osasuna keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Getafe in 48%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Osasuna home games / Getafe away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Osasuna play Getafe?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Osasuna's recent matches and 48% of Getafe's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Osasuna vs Getafe usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Osasuna's recent games and 29% of Getafe's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Osasuna and Getafe tend to score early?
Osasuna have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Getafe in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Getafe cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Osasuna.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Getafe beat Osasuna 0-2 at Estadio El Sadar, Regular Season - 6, in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Osasuna 2.20 xG and Getafe 0.99 xG, a combined 3.19. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Osasuna fell 2.2 short of their projected output. Getafe outscored their 0.99 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Osasuna attack 1.08 / defence 0.91 against Getafe attack 0.92 / defence 1.48, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Osasuna 65% | Draw 19% | Getafe 16%, with Osasuna to win its most likely call at 65%. Instead the game produced a Getafe win, an outcome the model had rated at just 16% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 37% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Osasuna 37%, Getafe 37%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 41%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Osasuna's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Getafe's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Osasuna 1.37 PPG, Getafe 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Getafe win broke the near-deadlock. Osasuna (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.10 scoring average — below par going forward. Getafe (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.67 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.62 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.