Osasuna vs Atletico Madrid – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model favours Atletico Madrid (45%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Osasuna face Atletico Madrid.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a La Liga clash, Regular Season - 24 as Osasuna welcome Atletico Madrid to Estadio El Sadar. Kick-off is set for Sunday 14 February 2027 at 16:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all La Liga games this season, Osasuna have gone 3W 1D 6L from 10 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: D L W L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Osasuna, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Osasuna have posted 3W 3D 4L at Estadio El Sadar — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Atletico Madrid — All Games: 8W 1D 1L from 10 La Liga fixtures this season — 2.50 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Atletico Madrid, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in La Liga this season, Atletico Madrid have posted 7W 0D 3L from 10 away outings — 2.10 PPG. They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Form points away from home here. Atletico Madrid's 2.50 PPG return is 1.50 points per game ahead of Osasuna's 1.00 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H Record
The previous 10 encounters between these sides heavily favour Atletico Madrid, who boast 8 victories compared to 2 for Osasuna.
The 10 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 16 Sep 2026, ended 0–4 with Atletico Madrid winning.
It is worth noting that Atletico Madrid have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 8 wins from 10 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
In-Play Data
Osasuna trading profile (49 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Atletico Madrid trading profile (49 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Osasuna 53% versus Atletico Madrid 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Osasuna 49% | Atletico Madrid 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Osasuna 0.85 xG and Atletico Madrid 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Osasuna attack 0.739 / defence 0.869 | Atletico Madrid attack 1.190 / defence 0.711. League average goals — home 1.611 / away 1.245. Osasuna's attack strength of 0.739 is below the league average — the 0.85 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Atletico Madrid's defence strength of 0.711 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 49 Osasuna games / 49 Atletico Madrid games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Osasuna 23% | Draw 31% | Atletico Madrid 45%. Fair-value odds: Osasuna 4.35 | Draw 3.23 | Atletico Madrid 2.22. Atletico Madrid hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.13. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.13 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Atletico Madrid are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Atletico Madrid offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.13 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 36% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 43%. Form rates are neutral: Osasuna 60% | Atletico Madrid 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Osasuna vs Atletico Madrid | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Estadio El Sadar • Kick-off: Sunday 14 Feb 2027, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Osasuna 23% | Draw 31% | Atletico Madrid 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 43% | xG Osasuna 0.85 / Atletico Madrid 1.29 • Poisson strength factors: Osasuna attack 0.739 / def 0.869 | Atletico Madrid attack 1.190 / def 0.711 | league avg home 1.611 / away 1.245 • Poisson stance: Atletico Madrid (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.85
Osasuna xG
Expected Goals
1.29
Atletico Madrid xG
43%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Osasuna vs Atletico Madrid kick off?
Osasuna vs Atletico Madrid is scheduled to kick off at 16:00 on Sunday 14 February 2027 at Estadio El Sadar.
Where is Osasuna vs Atletico Madrid being played?
The match is being played at Estadio El Sadar.
What competition is Osasuna vs Atletico Madrid part of?
Osasuna vs Atletico Madrid is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Osasuna vs Atletico Madrid?
Our statistical model gives Osasuna a 23% chance of winning, Atletico Madrid a 45% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Atletico Madrid the favourite.
Will both teams score in Osasuna vs Atletico Madrid?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Osasuna and Atletico Madrid will score (BTTS).
Will Osasuna vs Atletico Madrid have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Osasuna and Atletico Madrid?
Record (10 meetings): Osasuna 2W | Draws 0 | Atletico Madrid 8W.
What form are Osasuna and Atletico Madrid in?
Osasuna (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.20 | L5 D-L-W-L-L. Atletico Madrid (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Osasuna's attack at 0.74x the league average against Atletico Madrid's defence at 0.71x — combine the two and it projects 0.85 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Atletico Madrid's attack versus Osasuna's defence, projects 1.29 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 49/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (13.6%), 0-0 (13.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Atletico Madrid Win
23%
4.32
31%
3.18
45%
2.20
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.2%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
0 – 0
11.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.85
Osasuna xG
Total xG
2.13
1.29
Atletico Madrid xG
4.32
23%
Home win
3.18
31%
Draw
2.20
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.34
57%
BTTS No
1.75
Clean Sheet
28%
3.63
43%
2.33
Win to Nil
6%
15.69
20%
5.13
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.8 | 15.2 | 9.8 | 4.2 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 10.0 | 12.9 | 8.3 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 4.2 | 5.5 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Osasuna vs Atletico Madrid?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Osasuna and Atletico Madrid expected to score?
The model projects 0.85 expected goals for Osasuna and 1.29 for Atletico Madrid, a combined total of 2.13.
How confident is the prediction model for Osasuna vs Atletico Madrid?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Osasuna come into this having played 49 games, going 14W 11D 24L for 1.08 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-W-L-L. The sample for Osasuna is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Atletico Madrid sit at 1.98 PPG from 49 outings (30W 7D 12L), a run that reads W-W-W-W-W across their last five. The sample for Atletico Madrid is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Atletico Madrid carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.90 PPG clear of Osasuna — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Osasuna's home form reads 11W 7D 6L across 24 games on their own ground, a 1.67 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.08 PPG overall — Osasuna are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Atletico Madrid have taken 1.58 points per game from 24 outings (11W 5D 8L).
Goals in Recent Form
Osasuna are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.47 conceded per game recently; Atletico Madrid are on 1.71 scored and 1.06 conceded.
Defensively: Atletico Madrid in 41% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 49 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Osasuna
Blended
Atletico Madrid
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Osasuna and Atletico Madrid in coming into this match?
Osasuna have gone 14W 11D 24L in their last 49 games (1.08 PPG), while Atletico Madrid have gone 30W 7D 12L in their last 49 (1.98 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Osasuna at home or Atletico Madrid away?
Osasuna's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Osasuna at home: 1.67 PPG; Atletico Madrid away: 1.58 PPG.
Have Osasuna or Atletico Madrid been keeping clean sheets recently?
Osasuna have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, Atletico Madrid in 41%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to February 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. The two were last together as recently as 16 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Atletico Madrid have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 16 Sep 2026, when Atletico Madrid won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Osasuna's record when hosting Atletico Madrid specifically: 1W 0D 4L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Osasuna
0
Draws
8
Atletico Madrid
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Osasuna and Atletico Madrid?
From 10 meetings on record, Osasuna have won 2, Atletico Madrid have won 8, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Osasuna and Atletico Madrid last play each other?
They last met on 16 September 2026, when Atletico Madrid 4-0 Osasuna.
Who has won more matches between Osasuna and Atletico Madrid?
Atletico Madrid have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Osasuna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Atletico Madrid see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Osasuna 62%, Atletico Madrid 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Osasuna) and 50% (Atletico Madrid).
On the defensive side: Osasuna keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Atletico Madrid in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Osasuna home games / Atletico Madrid away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Osasuna play Atletico Madrid?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Osasuna's games and 50% of Atletico Madrid's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Osasuna vs Atletico Madrid usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Osasuna's recent games and 50% of Atletico Madrid's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Osasuna and Atletico Madrid tend to score early?
Osasuna have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Atletico Madrid in 58% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.
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