Osasuna 3-1 Almeria – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Osasuna at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Osasuna vs Almeria fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

✍️ Match Preview

Pre-Match Analysis

Osasuna and Almeria meet at Estadio El Sadar in La Liga, Regular Season - 34. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 13 May 2023 at 15:15 UTC.

Current Form

Osasuna's overall La Liga record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: L W W L L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.

Osasuna's form when playing at home: 4W 1D 5L across 10 games at Estadio El Sadar this term (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.

Almeria (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 La Liga outings this term — 1.10 points per game. Last five: L L W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.

Almeria's form when playing away from home: 1W 3D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.10 vs 1.10 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.

H2H History

Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Osasuna 1W, Almeria 0W, 0D.

Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 1 previous contests averaged 1.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 12 Sep 2022, ended 1–0 with Osasuna winning.

With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.

Trading & In-Play

Osasuna — key trading statistics (33 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 42% of games.

Almeria — key trading statistics (33 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 88% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Osasuna 39% versus Almeria 70%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Osasuna 30% | Almeria 61%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Osasuna 1.60 xG and Almeria 1.45 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Osasuna attack 0.802 / defence 1.210 | Almeria attack 1.132 / defence 1.400. League average goals — home 1.428 / away 1.059. Almeria bring a strong defensive rating of 1.400 — this is suppressing Osasuna's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 71 Osasuna games / 33 Almeria games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Osasuna 41% | Draw 24% | Almeria 35%. Fair-value odds: Osasuna 2.44 | Draw 4.17 | Almeria 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.06. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.06 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.60 / 1.45) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Osasuna at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Osasuna if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 3.06 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 59% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 61% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Osasuna 30% | Almeria 80% BTTS from recent games.

The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

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