Osasuna 2-2 Alaves – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Osasuna (56%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Osasuna face Alaves.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A La Liga encounter, Regular Season - 16 sees Alaves travel to Estadio El Sadar to take on Osasuna. The game is scheduled for Sunday 8 December 2024, 17:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all La Liga games this season, Osasuna have gone 4W 4D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.60 PPG return. Last five: W W L D D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Osasuna, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Estadio El Sadar, Osasuna have gone 5W 4D 1L this season (10 games, 1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Alaves — All Games: 2W 1D 7L from 10 La Liga fixtures this season — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L W L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Alaves, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Alaves away from home this season: 1W 1D 8L from 10 away games — 0.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Osasuna carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.90 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.60 vs 0.70. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Osasuna register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant matches, Alaves in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The fixture history tells a clear story: Osasuna have dominated this rivalry, winning 4 of 4 past contests while Alaves have managed just 0 wins.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.5 per contest from 4 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 4 Mar 2024, ended 1–0 with Osasuna winning.
The historical record gives Osasuna a meaningful edge here — 4 wins from 4 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
In-Play Data
Osasuna trading profile (53 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (home games).
Alaves trading profile (53 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Osasuna 53% versus Alaves 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Osasuna 45% | Alaves 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Osasuna 1.82 xG and Alaves 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Osasuna attack 1.043 / defence 1.039 | Alaves attack 0.860 / defence 1.202. League average goals — home 1.454 / away 1.168. Alaves bring a strong defensive rating of 1.202 — this is suppressing Osasuna's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 53 Osasuna games / 53 Alaves games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Osasuna 56% | Draw 23% | Alaves 22%. Fair-value odds: Osasuna 1.79 | Draw 4.35 | Alaves 4.55. The model has a clear lean to Osasuna (56%) — a 34pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.87. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.87 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Osasuna are the pick at 56% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.87 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 55% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.5 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates corroborate: Osasuna 80% | Alaves 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Osasuna vs Alaves | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Estadio El Sadar • Kick-off: Sunday 8 Dec 2024, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Osasuna 56% | Draw 23% | Alaves 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 54% | xG Osasuna 1.82 / Alaves 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: Osasuna attack 1.043 / def 1.039 | Alaves attack 0.860 / def 1.202 | league avg home 1.454 / away 1.168 • Poisson stance: Osasuna (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.82
Osasuna xG
Expected Goals
1.04
Alaves xG
54%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Osasuna vs Alaves kick off?
Osasuna vs Alaves kicked off at 17:30 on Sunday 8 December 2024 at Estadio El Sadar.
What was the final score in Osasuna vs Alaves?
Osasuna 2 - 2 Alaves.
Where is Osasuna vs Alaves being played?
The match is being played at Estadio El Sadar.
What competition is Osasuna vs Alaves part of?
Osasuna vs Alaves is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Osasuna vs Alaves?
Our statistical model gives Osasuna a 56% chance of winning, Alaves a 22% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Osasuna the favourite.
Will both teams score in Osasuna vs Alaves?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Osasuna and Alaves will score (BTTS).
Will Osasuna vs Alaves have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Osasuna and Alaves?
Record (4 meetings): Osasuna 4W | Draws 0 | Alaves 0W.
What form are Osasuna and Alaves in?
Osasuna (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-L-D-D. Alaves (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-W-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Osasuna's attack rating (1.04) and Alaves's defence rating (1.20), the model arrives at 1.82 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Alaves's attack versus Osasuna's defence, projects 1.04 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 53/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Osasuna Win
56%
1.80
23%
4.37
22%
4.65
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.4%
Home win
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.82
Osasuna xG
Total xG
2.87
1.04
Alaves xG
1.80
56%
Home win
4.37
23%
Draw
4.65
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.84
46%
BTTS No
2.19
Clean Sheet
35%
2.84
16%
6.19
Win to Nil
20%
5.11
3%
28.79
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 5.9 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.4 | 10.8 | 5.7 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.4 | 9.9 | 5.2 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.7 | 6.0 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.6 | 2.7 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Osasuna vs Alaves?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are Osasuna and Alaves expected to score?
The model projects 1.82 expected goals for Osasuna and 1.04 for Alaves, a combined total of 2.87.
How confident is the prediction model for Osasuna vs Alaves?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Osasuna come into this having played 53 games, going 18W 14D 21L for 1.28 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-D-D. The sample for Osasuna is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Alaves sit at 1.13 PPG from 53 outings (16W 12D 25L), a run that reads L-W-L-L-D across their last five. The sample for Alaves is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Osasuna on 1.28 PPG, Alaves on 1.13. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Osasuna's home form reads 11W 7D 9L across 27 games on their own ground, a 1.48 PPG return.
Away from home, Alaves have taken 0.67 points per game from 27 outings (4W 6D 17L). That's a step down from their 1.13 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Alaves's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Osasuna come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Osasuna are averaging 1.23 goals scored and 1.49 conceded per game recently; Alaves are on 0.98 scored and 1.34 conceded.
Last 53 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Osasuna
Blended
Alaves
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Osasuna and Alaves in coming into this match?
Osasuna have gone 18W 14D 21L in their last 53 games (1.28 PPG), while Alaves have gone 16W 12D 25L in their last 53 (1.13 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Osasuna at home or Alaves away?
Osasuna's home record (1.48 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Osasuna at home: 1.48 PPG; Alaves away: 0.67 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
9 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. The two were last together as recently as 6 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 20 Dec 2025, when Osasuna won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Osasuna's record when hosting Alaves specifically: 3W 1D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
5
Osasuna
3
Draws
1
Alaves
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Osasuna and Alaves?
From 9 meetings on record, Osasuna have won 5, Alaves have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Osasuna and Alaves last play each other?
They last met on 6 September 2026, when Alaves 5-2 Osasuna.
Who has won more matches between Osasuna and Alaves?
Osasuna have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Osasuna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Alaves are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Osasuna 52%, Alaves 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 37% (Osasuna) and 44% (Alaves).
On the defensive side: Alaves in 48%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Osasuna home games / Alaves away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Osasuna play Alaves?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Osasuna's recent matches and 44% of Alaves's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Osasuna vs Alaves usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 37% of Osasuna's recent games and 44% of Alaves's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Osasuna and Alaves tend to score early?
Osasuna have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Alaves in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Osasuna and Alaves share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Estadio El Sadar, Regular Season - 16, as Osasuna and Alaves drew 2-2 in the La Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Osasuna 1.82 xG and Alaves 1.04 xG, a combined 2.87. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Alaves outscored their 1.04 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Osasuna attack 1.04 / defence 1.04 against Alaves attack 0.86 / defence 1.20, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Osasuna 56% | Draw 23% | Alaves 22%, with Osasuna to win its most likely call at 56%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 32% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Osasuna 45%, Alaves 38%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Osasuna's trading profile (53 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Alaves's trading profile (53 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Osasuna 1.28 PPG, Alaves 1.13 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Alaves (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.78 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.