Mallorca 2-6 Granada CF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Mallorca at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Mallorca vs Granada CF fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A La Liga encounter, Regular Season - 35 sees Granada CF travel to Visit Mallorca Estadi to take on Mallorca. The game is scheduled for Saturday 7 May 2022, 13:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Mallorca — All Games: 2W 0D 8L from 10 La Liga outings this season, averaging 0.60 points per game. Last five: L W L W L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Mallorca at Visit Mallorca Estadi this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — Mallorca are significantly better at Visit Mallorca Estadi than their overall form suggests.
Across all La Liga games this season, Granada CF have recorded 1W 4D 5L from 10 outings — 0.70 PPG. Last five: D L L D D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Granada CF have gone 1W 4D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Mallorca at 0.60 PPG versus Granada CF's 0.70. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Mallorca, 1 for Granada CF and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 5.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 19 Dec 2021, ended 1–4 with Granada CF winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Mallorca in-play tendencies (34 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (home games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
Granada CF in-play tendencies (34 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%; they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Mallorca 47% versus Granada CF 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Mallorca 47% | Granada CF 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mallorca 1.24 xG and Granada CF 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mallorca attack 0.806 / defence 1.175 | Granada CF attack 0.865 / defence 1.439. League average goals — home 1.072 / away 1.113. Granada CF bring a strong defensive rating of 1.439 — this is suppressing Mallorca's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 34 Mallorca games / 34 Granada CF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Mallorca 38% | Draw 29% | Granada CF 33%. Fair-value odds: Mallorca 2.63 | Draw 3.45 | Granada CF 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.38. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.38 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Mallorca as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Mallorca offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.38 combined xG gives a 42% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 49% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Mallorca 30% | Granada CF 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mallorca vs Granada CF | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 35 | Venue: Visit Mallorca Estadi • Kick-off: Saturday 7 May 2022, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mallorca 38% | Draw 29% | Granada CF 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 49% | xG Mallorca 1.24 / Granada CF 1.13 • Poisson strength factors: Mallorca attack 0.806 / def 1.175 | Granada CF attack 0.865 / def 1.439 | league avg home 1.072 / away 1.113 • Poisson stance: Mallorca (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.24
Mallorca xG
Expected Goals
1.13
Granada CF xG
49%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Mallorca vs Granada CF kick off?
Mallorca vs Granada CF kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 7 May 2022 at Visit Mallorca Estadi.
What was the final score in Mallorca vs Granada CF?
Mallorca 2 - 6 Granada CF.
Where is Mallorca vs Granada CF being played?
The match is being played at Visit Mallorca Estadi.
What competition is Mallorca vs Granada CF part of?
Mallorca vs Granada CF is a Regular Season - 35 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Mallorca vs Granada CF?
Our statistical model gives Mallorca a 38% chance of winning, Granada CF a 33% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Mallorca the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mallorca vs Granada CF?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Mallorca and Granada CF will score (BTTS).
Will Mallorca vs Granada CF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Mallorca and Granada CF?
Record (1 meetings): Mallorca 0W | Draws 0 | Granada CF 1W.
What form are Mallorca and Granada CF in?
Mallorca (all comps): 2W-0D-8L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-W-L-W-L. Granada CF (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.10 | L5 D-L-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Mallorca's attacking strength (0.81x league average) is weighed against Granada CF's defensive record (1.44x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.24. The same calculation in reverse, Granada CF's attack versus Mallorca's defence, projects 1.13 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 34/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.0%), 1-0 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Mallorca Win
38%
2.62
29%
3.44
33%
3.05
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.6%
Home win
0 – 1
10.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.24
Mallorca xG
Total xG
2.38
1.13
Granada CF xG
2.62
38%
Home win
3.44
29%
Draw
3.05
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.05
51%
BTTS No
1.96
Clean Sheet
32%
3.10
29%
3.47
Win to Nil
12%
8.13
9%
10.58
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.3 | 10.5 | 6.0 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.6 | 13.1 | 7.4 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 8.1 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 3.4 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Mallorca vs Granada CF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Mallorca and Granada CF expected to score?
The model projects 1.24 expected goals for Mallorca and 1.13 for Granada CF, a combined total of 2.38.
How confident is the prediction model for Mallorca vs Granada CF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Mallorca come into this having played 34 games, going 8W 8D 18L for 0.94 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-W-L.
On the other side, Granada CF sit at 0.91 PPG from 34 outings (6W 13D 15L), a run that reads D-L-L-D-D across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Mallorca on 0.94 PPG, Granada CF on 0.91. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Mallorca's home form reads 6W 6D 5L across 17 games on their own ground, a 1.41 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 0.94 PPG overall — Mallorca are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Granada CF have taken 0.76 points per game from 17 outings (2W 7D 8L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Mallorca come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Mallorca are averaging 0.88 goals scored and 1.65 conceded per game recently; Granada CF are on 1.09 scored and 1.68 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Granada CF in 62%.
Last 34 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mallorca
Current Season
Granada CF
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Mallorca and Granada CF in coming into this match?
Mallorca have gone 8W 8D 18L in their last 34 games (0.94 PPG), while Granada CF have gone 6W 13D 15L in their last 34 (0.91 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mallorca at home or Granada CF away?
Mallorca's home record (1.41 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mallorca at home: 1.41 PPG; Granada CF away: 0.76 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Mallorca and Granada CF runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 16 March 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 7 May 2022, when Granada CF won 2-6 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Mallorca's record when hosting Granada CF specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Mallorca
0
Draws
3
Granada CF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Mallorca and Granada CF?
From 4 meetings on record, Mallorca have won 1, Granada CF have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Mallorca and Granada CF last play each other?
They last met on 16 March 2024, when Mallorca 1-0 Granada CF.
Who has won more matches between Mallorca and Granada CF?
Granada CF have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Mallorca see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Granada CF see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Mallorca 41%, Granada CF 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 35% (Mallorca) and 41% (Granada CF).
On the defensive side: Mallorca keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Mallorca have failed to score in 41% of games; Granada CF in 47%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mallorca home games / Granada CF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Mallorca play Granada CF?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 41% of Mallorca's recent matches and 47% of Granada CF's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Mallorca vs Granada CF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 35% of Mallorca's recent games and 41% of Granada CF's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Dominant Granada CF run riot with a 2-6 hammering of Mallorca.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Granada CF beat Mallorca 2-6 at Visit Mallorca Estadi, Regular Season - 35, in the La Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mallorca 1.24 xG and Granada CF 1.13 xG, a combined 2.38. The scoreboard read 2-6 for 8 actual goals. Granada CF outscored their 1.13 projection by 4.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mallorca attack 0.81 / defence 1.18 against Granada CF attack 0.86 / defence 1.44, drawn from 34/34 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Mallorca 38% | Draw 29% | Granada CF 33%, with Mallorca to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Granada CF win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 8, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. Over 3.5 was 22% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mallorca 47%, Granada CF 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Mallorca's trading profile (34 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
Granada CF's trading profile (34 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Mallorca 0.94 PPG, Granada CF 0.91 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Granada CF win broke the near-deadlock. Mallorca (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.94 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 6 against a 1.06 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Granada CF (home/away splits) scored 6 against a 0.94 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.