Mallorca 1-1 Alaves – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Mallorca at 40% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Mallorca face Alaves.

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Full Analysis

Estadi Mallorca Son Moix plays host to Mallorca versus Alaves in La Liga (matchday 26). Kick-off: Sunday 2 March 2025 at 17:30 UK time.

Current Form

Mallorca's record over their last 10 games: 3W 2D 5L (1.10 PPG). Last five: L L D W D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).

In front of their own supporters, Mallorca have posted 5W 2D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Mallorca are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.

Alaves have collected 0.80 PPG across their last 10 games: 1W 5D 4L. Last five: D L L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Alaves's away record over their last 10 away games: 1W 3D 6L (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

A near-identical PPG reading — 1.10 for Mallorca, 0.80 for Alaves — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.

Head-to-Head

Neither side has dominated the 5 H2H matches in our data: 2 wins for Mallorca, 1 for Alaves and 2 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral.

Scoring has been limited in the 5 H2H matches in our data, averaging 1.4 goals per game, which makes Under 2.5 the head-to-head-backed angle in the goals market. The most recent of those, on 1 Nov 2024, ended Mallorca 0–1 Alaves — a Alaves win.

With a balanced win record and just 1.4 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.

Trading Data

Mallorca goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 63 games, 32 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 59% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; of the 8 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.

Alaves goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 63 games, 32 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 40%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Mallorca 48% versus Alaves 44%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Mallorca 33% | Alaves 38%). Note also that Alaves surrender HT leads in 40% of cases while Mallorca recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 33% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Mallorca 1.50 xG and Alaves 1.37 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mallorca attack 0.909 / defence 1.024 | Alaves attack 1.197 / defence 1.142. League average goals — home 1.441 / away 1.120. Data: built from Mallorca's last 63 games and Alaves's last 63.

Result probabilities: Mallorca 40% | Draw 25% | Alaves 35%. Fair-value odds: Mallorca 2.48 | Draw 4.02 | Alaves 2.87. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS Yes probability 58% | Total xG 2.87. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.87 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 58% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Mallorca at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Mallorca if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 2.87 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 55% — mixed conviction, supported by recent form (Mallorca's last 10 home games and Alaves's last 10 away games) averaging 2.8 goals per game — though the H2H data averaging only 1.4 goals per game across 5 H2H matches points the other way.

Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Mallorca 50% (last 10 home games) | Alaves 60% (last 10 away games).

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