Granada CF 1-4 Villarreal – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Villarreal at 39% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Granada CF vs Villarreal encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Pre-Match Analysis

Granada CF and Villarreal meet at Estadio Nuevo Los Cármenes in La Liga, Regular Season - 25. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 19 February 2022 at 13:00 UTC.

Form & Momentum

Granada CF have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 La Liga outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: D L L L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Granada CF, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Granada CF's form when playing at home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 games at Estadio Nuevo Los Cármenes this term (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Villarreal (all games): 6W 2D 2L across 10 La Liga outings this term — 2.00 points per game. Last five: D L W W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Villarreal, so this record blends games from this season and last.

On the road, Villarreal have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

Villarreal arrive in superior form — a 0.80 PPG advantage (2.00 vs 1.20) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.

H2H Analysis

The head-to-head record is closely matched — Granada CF lead 0W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.

Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 0.0 per game from 1 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 16 Aug 2021, ended 0–0 with a draw.

With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.

Trading

Granada CF half-time and goal-timing data (24 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 82% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.

Villarreal half-time and goal-timing data (24 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 38% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 27% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time; they fail to score in 33% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Granada CF 58% versus Villarreal 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Granada CF 42% | Villarreal 46%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Granada CF 1.04 xG and Villarreal 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Granada CF attack 0.988 / defence 1.316 | Villarreal attack 0.820 / defence 0.932. League average goals — home 1.129 / away 1.136. Data: 24 Granada CF games / 24 Villarreal games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Granada CF 30% | Draw 31% | Villarreal 39%. Fair-value odds: Granada CF 3.33 | Draw 3.23 | Villarreal 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.26. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.26 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Villarreal at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Villarreal if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.26 combined xG gives a 39% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 47%. This conflicts with form data: Granada CF 80% | Villarreal 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.

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