Granada CF 1-4 Real Madrid – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Real Madrid at 49% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Granada CF vs Real Madrid encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Estadio Nuevo Los Cármenes plays host to Granada CF versus Real Madrid in La Liga, Regular Season - 14. Kick-off: Sunday 21 November 2021 at 15:15 UTC.
Form
Granada CF (all games): 2W 3D 5L across 10 La Liga fixtures this term — 0.90 PPG. Last five: W D D W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Granada CF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Granada CF's home record at Estadio Nuevo Los Cármenes: 1W 2D 2L from 5 La Liga appearances (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Real Madrid's overall La Liga record this term: 7W 2D 1L from 10 games (2.30 PPG). Last five: L W D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Real Madrid, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in La Liga this season, Real Madrid have posted 5W 1D 1L from 7 away outings — 2.29 PPG. They are averaging 2.14 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 86% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Real Madrid are 1.40 PPG clear of Granada CF in recent La Liga fixtures (2.30 vs 0.90). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Granada CF register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant games, Real Madrid in 86%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Trading Data
Granada CF goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (12 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 25% of the time; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Real Madrid goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (12 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Granada CF 50% and Real Madrid 75% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Granada CF 33% | Real Madrid 75%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Granada CF 1.16 xG and Real Madrid 1.70 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Granada CF attack 0.942 / defence 1.278 | Real Madrid attack 1.237 / defence 1.154. League average goals — home 1.063 / away 1.075. Real Madrid have an above-average attack strength of 1.237 — the away xG of 1.70 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 12 Granada CF games / 12 Real Madrid games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Granada CF 25% | Draw 26% | Real Madrid 49%. Fair-value odds: Granada CF 4.00 | Draw 3.85 | Real Madrid 2.04. Real Madrid hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.86. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.86 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Real Madrid as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Real Madrid if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.86 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 54% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Granada CF 80% | Real Madrid 86% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Granada CF vs Real Madrid | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Estadio Nuevo Los Cármenes • Kick-off: Sunday 21 Nov 2021, 15:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Granada CF 25% | Draw 26% | Real Madrid 49% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 57% | xG Granada CF 1.16 / Real Madrid 1.70 • Poisson strength factors: Granada CF attack 0.942 / def 1.278 | Real Madrid attack 1.237 / def 1.154 | league avg home 1.063 / away 1.075 • Poisson stance: Real Madrid (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.16
Granada CF xG
Expected Goals
1.70
Real Madrid xG
57%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Granada CF vs Real Madrid kick off?
Granada CF vs Real Madrid kicked off at 15:15 on Sunday 21 November 2021 at Estadio Nuevo Los Cármenes.
What was the final score in Granada CF vs Real Madrid?
Granada CF 1 - 4 Real Madrid.
Where is Granada CF vs Real Madrid being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Nuevo Los Cármenes.
What competition is Granada CF vs Real Madrid part of?
Granada CF vs Real Madrid is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Granada CF vs Real Madrid?
Our statistical model gives Granada CF a 25% chance of winning, Real Madrid a 49% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Real Madrid the favourite.
Will both teams score in Granada CF vs Real Madrid?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Granada CF and Real Madrid will score (BTTS).
Will Granada CF vs Real Madrid have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Granada CF and Real Madrid?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Granada CF and Real Madrid in?
Granada CF (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-D-D-W-L. Real Madrid (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Granada CF's attack rating (0.94) and Real Madrid's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 1.16 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Real Madrid's attack (1.24x) against Granada CF's defence (1.28x) — and the away total comes out at 1.70.
These ratings are built from 12/12 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.8%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.6%), 0-2 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Real Madrid Win
25%
4.02
26%
3.84
49%
2.04
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.8%
Away win
1 – 2
9.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.16
Granada CF xG
Total xG
2.86
1.70
Real Madrid xG
4.02
25%
Home win
3.84
26%
Draw
2.04
49%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.33
Clean Sheet
18%
5.47
31%
3.18
Win to Nil
5%
21.98
15%
6.47
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 9.8 | 8.3 | 4.7 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 6.6 | 11.3 | 9.6 | 5.4 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 3.8 | 6.5 | 5.6 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.5 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Granada CF vs Real Madrid?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Granada CF and Real Madrid expected to score?
The model projects 1.16 expected goals for Granada CF and 1.70 for Real Madrid, a combined total of 2.86.
How confident is the prediction model for Granada CF vs Real Madrid?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Granada CF come into this having played 12 games, going 2W 5D 5L for 0.92 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-D-W-L. The sample for Granada CF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Real Madrid sit at 2.25 PPG from 12 outings (8W 3D 1L), a run that reads L-W-D-W-W across their last five. The sample for Real Madrid is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Real Madrid carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.33 PPG clear of Granada CF — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Granada CF's home form reads 1W 2D 2L across 5 games on their own ground, a 1.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Real Madrid have taken 2.40 points per game from 5 outings (4W 0D 1L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Real Madrid come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Granada CF are averaging 0.92 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Real Madrid are on 2.33 scored and 1.08 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Real Madrid in 75%.
Last 12 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Granada CF
Blended
Real Madrid
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Granada CF and Real Madrid in coming into this match?
Granada CF have gone 2W 5D 5L in their last 12 games (0.92 PPG), while Real Madrid have gone 8W 3D 1L in their last 12 (2.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Granada CF at home or Real Madrid away?
Real Madrid's away record (2.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Granada CF at home: 1.00 PPG; Real Madrid away: 2.40 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 11 May 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Real Madrid go into this on the back of 4 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Real Madrid won 0-4 on 11 May 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Granada CF have gone 0W 0D 2L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Real Madrid — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Granada CF
0
Draws
4
Real Madrid
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Granada CF and Real Madrid?
From 4 meetings on record, Granada CF have won 0, Real Madrid have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Granada CF and Real Madrid last play each other?
They last met on 11 May 2024, when Granada CF 0-4 Real Madrid.
Who has won more matches between Granada CF and Real Madrid?
Real Madrid have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Granada CF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 40% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Real Madrid are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 80% for Granada CF, 80% for Real Madrid — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 40% for Granada CF and 80% for Real Madrid. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 20% and 0% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Granada CF home games / Real Madrid away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Granada CF play Real Madrid?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 80% of Granada CF's games and 80% of Real Madrid's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Granada CF vs Real Madrid usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 40% of Granada CF's matches and 80% of Real Madrid's.
Do Granada CF and Real Madrid tend to score early?
Granada CF have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Real Madrid in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Real Madrid run riot with a 1-4 hammering of Granada CF.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Real Madrid beat Granada CF 1-4 at Estadio Nuevo Los Cármenes, Regular Season - 14, in the La Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Granada CF 1.16 xG and Real Madrid 1.70 xG, a combined 2.86. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. Real Madrid outscored their 1.70 projection by 2.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Granada CF attack 0.94 / defence 1.28 against Real Madrid attack 1.24 / defence 1.15, drawn from 12/12 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Granada CF 25% | Draw 26% | Real Madrid 49%, with Real Madrid to win its most likely call at 49%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 32% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Granada CF 33%, Real Madrid 75%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Granada CF's trading profile (12 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Real Madrid's trading profile (12 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Real Madrid arrived the stronger side — 2.25 PPG against 0.92. That form edge translated into the three points. Granada CF (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.40 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Real Madrid (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.60 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.