Granada CF 0-4 Real Madrid – Result & Analysis

Poisson model favours Real Madrid (50%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Granada CF face Real Madrid.

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Full Analysis

Estadio Nuevo Los Cármenes plays host to Granada CF versus Real Madrid in La Liga, Regular Season - 35. Kick-off: Saturday 11 May 2024 at 17:30 UTC.

Form

Granada CF (all games): 2W 2D 6L across 10 La Liga fixtures this term — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L W D W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.

Granada CF's home record at Estadio Nuevo Los Cármenes: 3W 3D 4L from 10 La Liga appearances (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.

Real Madrid's overall La Liga record this term: 8W 2D 0L from 10 games (2.60 PPG). Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.

When travelling in La Liga this season, Real Madrid have posted 7W 3D 0L from 10 away outings — 2.40 PPG. They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.

The travelling side arrive in better shape. Real Madrid are 1.80 PPG clear of Granada CF in recent La Liga fixtures (2.60 vs 0.80). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.

H2H History

Real Madrid hold the superior head-to-head record in this fixture, claiming 3 wins from 3 meetings. The hosts have won just 0 times in that span.

The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 2 Dec 2023, ended 0–2 with Real Madrid winning.

It is worth noting that Real Madrid have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 3 wins from 3 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.

Trading Data

Granada CF goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (34 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games); they fail to score in 41% of games.

Real Madrid goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (34 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 53% of the time.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Granada CF 50% versus Real Madrid 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Granada CF 41% | Real Madrid 53%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Granada CF 1.05 xG and Real Madrid 1.60 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Granada CF attack 0.941 / defence 1.104 | Real Madrid attack 1.320 / defence 0.779. League average goals — home 1.435 / away 1.097. Real Madrid's defence strength of 0.779 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Real Madrid have an above-average attack strength of 1.320 — the away xG of 1.60 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 34 Granada CF games / 72 Real Madrid games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Granada CF 25% | Draw 25% | Real Madrid 50%. Fair-value odds: Granada CF 4.00 | Draw 4.00 | Real Madrid 2.00. Real Madrid hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.65. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.65 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Real Madrid as the most likely outcome at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Real Madrid if the outright odds are short.

The Poisson model projects 2.65 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 49% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.

Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Granada CF 40% | Real Madrid 50%.

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