Granada CF 1-0 Athletic Club – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Athletic Club at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Granada CF vs Athletic Club fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Granada CF and Athletic Club meet at Estadio Nuevo Los Cármenes in La Liga, Regular Season - 36. This fixture gets under way on Tuesday 10 May 2022 at 19:00 UTC.
Current Form
Granada CF's overall La Liga record this term: 2W 4D 4L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: L L D D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.90 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, Granada CF have posted 2W 4D 4L at Estadio Nuevo Los Cármenes — 1.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Athletic Club (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 La Liga outings this term — 1.50 points per game. Last five: D L W W D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Athletic Club's away record: 3W 3D 4L from 10 road trips in La Liga this season (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Athletic Club arrive in superior form — a 0.50 PPG advantage (1.50 vs 1.00) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Granada CF, 0 for Athletic Club and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 26 Nov 2021, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Granada CF — key trading statistics (35 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 76% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they fail to score in 31% of games.
Athletic Club — key trading statistics (35 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 24% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Granada CF 63% versus Athletic Club 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Granada CF 49% | Athletic Club 37%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Granada CF 1.10 xG and Athletic Club 1.54 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Granada CF attack 0.864 / defence 1.608 | Athletic Club attack 0.854 / defence 1.194. League average goals — home 1.070 / away 1.125. Data: 35 Granada CF games / 35 Athletic Club games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Granada CF 26% | Draw 27% | Athletic Club 46%. Fair-value odds: Granada CF 3.85 | Draw 3.70 | Athletic Club 2.17. Athletic Club hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.65. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.65 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Athletic Club at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Athletic Club if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.65 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 49% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Granada CF 70% | Athletic Club 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Granada CF vs Athletic Club | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 36 | Venue: Estadio Nuevo Los Cármenes • Kick-off: Tuesday 10 May 2022, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Granada CF 26% | Draw 27% | Athletic Club 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 54% | xG Granada CF 1.10 / Athletic Club 1.54 • Poisson strength factors: Granada CF attack 0.864 / def 1.608 | Athletic Club attack 0.854 / def 1.194 | league avg home 1.070 / away 1.125 • Poisson stance: Athletic Club (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.10
Granada CF xG
Expected Goals
1.54
Athletic Club xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Granada CF vs Athletic Club kick off?
Granada CF vs Athletic Club kicked off at 19:00 on Tuesday 10 May 2022 at Estadio Nuevo Los Cármenes.
What was the final score in Granada CF vs Athletic Club?
Granada CF 1 - 0 Athletic Club.
Where is Granada CF vs Athletic Club being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Nuevo Los Cármenes.
What competition is Granada CF vs Athletic Club part of?
Granada CF vs Athletic Club is a Regular Season - 36 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Granada CF vs Athletic Club?
Our statistical model gives Granada CF a 26% chance of winning, Athletic Club a 46% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Athletic Club the favourite.
Will both teams score in Granada CF vs Athletic Club?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Granada CF and Athletic Club will score (BTTS).
Will Granada CF vs Athletic Club have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Granada CF and Athletic Club?
Record (1 meetings): Granada CF 0W | Draws 1 | Athletic Club 0W.
What form are Granada CF and Athletic Club in?
Granada CF (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-D-D-W. Athletic Club (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Granada CF's attack at 0.86x the league average against Athletic Club's defence at 1.19x — combine the two and it projects 1.10 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Athletic Club's attack (0.85x) against Granada CF's defence (1.61x) — and the away total comes out at 1.54.
These ratings are built from 35/35 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (9.4%), 1-2 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Athletic Club Win
26%
3.83
27%
3.65
46%
2.15
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.9%
Away win
1 – 2
9.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.10
Granada CF xG
Total xG
2.65
1.54
Athletic Club xG
3.83
26%
Home win
3.65
27%
Draw
2.15
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.87
46%
BTTS No
2.15
Clean Sheet
21%
4.68
33%
3.01
Win to Nil
6%
17.92
15%
6.49
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 10.9 | 8.4 | 4.3 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.8 | 12.1 | 9.3 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.3 | 6.7 | 5.1 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 2.4 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Granada CF vs Athletic Club?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Granada CF and Athletic Club expected to score?
The model projects 1.10 expected goals for Granada CF and 1.54 for Athletic Club, a combined total of 2.65.
How confident is the prediction model for Granada CF vs Athletic Club?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 35 outings, Granada CF have picked up 0.97 PPG on a 7W 13D 15L record — L-L-D-D-W across the most recent five.
Athletic Club's form line: 13W 13D 9L from 35 games, 1.49 PPG, last five D-L-W-W-D.
Put side by side, Athletic Club are the form team by 0.52 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Granada CF.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Granada CF have posted 1.06 PPG from 17 outings (4W 6D 7L).
On the road, Athletic Club have gone 4W 9D 4L from 17 away games — 1.24 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Granada CF are averaging 1.23 goals scored and 1.69 conceded per game recently; Athletic Club are on 1.17 scored and 0.97 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Granada CF have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Last 35 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Granada CF
Current Season
Athletic Club
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Granada CF and Athletic Club in coming into this match?
Granada CF have gone 7W 13D 15L in their last 35 games (0.97 PPG), while Athletic Club have gone 13W 13D 9L in their last 35 (1.49 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Granada CF at home or Athletic Club away?
Athletic Club's away record (1.24 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Granada CF at home: 1.06 PPG; Athletic Club away: 1.24 PPG.
Have Granada CF or Athletic Club been keeping clean sheets recently?
Granada CF have kept a clean sheet in 17% of their recent games, Athletic Club in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 19 April 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Granada CF have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Athletic Club — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Granada CF
3
Draws
0
Athletic Club
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Granada CF and Athletic Club?
From 4 meetings on record, Granada CF have won 1, Athletic Club have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Granada CF and Athletic Club last play each other?
They last met on 19 April 2024, when Athletic Club 1-1 Granada CF.
Who has won more matches between Granada CF and Athletic Club?
Granada CF have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Granada CF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Athletic Club see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Granada CF 76%, Athletic Club 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Granada CF) and 24% (Athletic Club).
On the defensive side: Athletic Club in 41%; Athletic Club in 47%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Granada CF home games / Athletic Club away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Granada CF play Athletic Club?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 76% of Granada CF's games and 41% of Athletic Club's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Granada CF vs Athletic Club usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of Granada CF's recent games and 24% of Athletic Club's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Granada CF and Athletic Club tend to score early?
Granada CF have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Athletic Club in 59% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Granada CF defy the odds to beat Athletic Club 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Granada CF beat Athletic Club 1-0 at Estadio Nuevo Los Cármenes, Regular Season - 36, in the La Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Granada CF 1.10 xG and Athletic Club 1.54 xG, a combined 2.65. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Athletic Club landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Granada CF attack 0.86 / defence 1.61 against Athletic Club attack 0.85 / defence 1.19, drawn from 35/35 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Granada CF 26% | Draw 27% | Athletic Club 46%, with Athletic Club to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual Granada CF win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 75% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Granada CF 49%, Athletic Club 37%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Granada CF's trading profile (35 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.
Athletic Club's trading profile (35 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Athletic Club arrived the stronger side — 1.49 PPG against 0.97. Form was overturned, with Granada CF winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Granada CF (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.71 average — tighter than their form line. Athletic Club (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.82 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.