Girona 0-4 Levante – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Girona at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Girona vs Levante fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Levante make the trip to Estadio Municipal de Montilivi to face Girona in La Liga, Regular Season - 5. The match kicks off on Saturday 20 September 2025 at 13:00 UTC.
Form
Girona (all games): 2W 2D 6L across 10 La Liga fixtures this term — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L L L D. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Girona have played only a handful of La Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Girona's home record at Estadio Municipal de Montilivi: 1W 2D 7L from 10 La Liga appearances (0.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
Levante have collected 0.25 PPG across 4 La Liga outings this season: 0W 1D 3L. Last five: L L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.25 per game is modest, conceding 2.25 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.25 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 75% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Levante have played only a handful of La Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
The form ledger tips toward Girona. A 0.55 PPG lead over Levante (0.80 vs 0.25) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Trading & In-Play
Girona — key trading statistics (4 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 25% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games; Over 3.5 in 50%; they fail to score in 50% of games.
Levante — key trading statistics (4 games): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures; they lead at the break 50% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games; Over 3.5 in 50%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Girona 50% and Levante 75% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Girona 50% | Levante 75%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Girona 1.42 xG and Levante 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Girona attack 0.757 / defence 1.330 | Levante attack 0.747 / defence 1.265. League average goals — home 1.478 / away 1.118. Girona's attack strength of 0.757 is below the league average — the 1.42 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Levante bring a strong defensive rating of 1.265 — this is suppressing Girona's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 42 Girona games / 4 Levante games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Girona 44% | Draw 27% | Levante 30%. Fair-value odds: Girona 2.27 | Draw 3.70 | Levante 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.53. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.53 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Girona are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Girona if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.53 combined xG gives a 46% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates corroborate: Girona 50% | Levante 75% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Girona vs Levante | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Estadio Municipal de Montilivi • Kick-off: Saturday 20 Sep 2025, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Girona 44% | Draw 27% | Levante 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 51% | xG Girona 1.42 / Levante 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: Girona attack 0.757 / def 1.330 | Levante attack 0.747 / def 1.265 | league avg home 1.478 / away 1.118 • Poisson stance: Girona (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.42
Girona xG
Expected Goals
1.11
Levante xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Girona vs Levante kick off?
Girona vs Levante kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 20 September 2025 at Estadio Municipal de Montilivi.
What was the final score in Girona vs Levante?
Girona 0 - 4 Levante.
Where is Girona vs Levante being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Municipal de Montilivi.
What competition is Girona vs Levante part of?
Girona vs Levante is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Girona vs Levante?
Our statistical model gives Girona a 44% chance of winning, Levante a 30% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Girona the favourite.
Will both teams score in Girona vs Levante?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Girona and Levante will score (BTTS).
Will Girona vs Levante have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Girona and Levante?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Girona and Levante in?
Girona (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-L-L-D. Levante (all comps): 0W-1D-3L in 4 | 0.25 PPG | GF 1.25 / GA 2.25 | L5 L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Girona's attack at 0.76x the league average against Levante's defence at 1.26x — combine the two and it projects 1.42 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Levante's attack (0.75x) against Girona's defence (1.33x) — and the away total comes out at 1.11.
These ratings are built from 42/4 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (9.7%), 0-0 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Girona Win
44%
2.28
27%
3.76
30%
3.39
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.3%
Home win
0 – 1
8.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.42
Girona xG
Total xG
2.53
1.11
Levante xG
2.28
44%
Home win
3.76
27%
Draw
3.39
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.97
49%
BTTS No
2.03
Clean Sheet
33%
3.04
24%
4.12
Win to Nil
14%
6.92
7%
13.94
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.0 | 8.9 | 4.9 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.3 | 12.6 | 7.0 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 8.9 | 4.9 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 4.2 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Girona vs Levante?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Girona and Levante expected to score?
The model projects 1.42 expected goals for Girona and 1.11 for Levante, a combined total of 2.53.
How confident is the prediction model for Girona vs Levante?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Girona's recent record stands at 0W 1D 3L from 4 games, a 0.25 PPG return, with L-L-L-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for Girona, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Levante, meanwhile, have gone 0W 1D 3L across 4 games — 0.25 PPG, with L-L-L-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for Levante, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.25 PPG for Girona against 0.25 for Levante. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Girona are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 2.75 conceded per game recently; Levante are on 1.25 scored and 2.25 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Levante in 75%.
Last 4 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Girona
Early Season
Levante
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Girona and Levante in coming into this match?
Girona have gone 0W 1D 3L in their last 4 games (0.25 PPG), while Levante have gone 0W 1D 3L in their last 4 (0.25 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since September 2025 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. They last met on 7 March 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Girona
1
Draws
1
Levante
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Girona and Levante?
From 2 meetings on record, Girona have won 0, Levante have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Girona and Levante last play each other?
They last met on 7 March 2026, when Levante 1-1 Girona.
Who has won more matches between Girona and Levante?
Levante have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Girona are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Levante are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 50% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Girona 50%, Levante 75% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 50% for Girona and 75% for Levante. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Girona have failed to score in 50% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Girona home games / Levante away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Girona play Levante?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Girona's games and 75% of Levante's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Girona vs Levante usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Girona's matches and 75% of Levante's.
Do Girona and Levante tend to score early?
Girona have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Levante in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Levante run riot with a 0-4 hammering of Girona.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Levante beat Girona 0-4 at Estadio Municipal de Montilivi, Regular Season - 5, in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Girona 1.42 xG and Levante 1.11 xG, a combined 2.53. The scoreboard read 0-4 for 4 actual goals. Girona fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Levante outscored their 1.11 projection by 2.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Girona attack 0.76 / defence 1.33 against Levante attack 0.75 / defence 1.26, drawn from 42/4 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Girona 44% | Draw 27% | Levante 30%, with Girona to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual Levante win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 25% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Girona 50%, Levante 75%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Girona's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 50% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Levante's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Girona 0.25 PPG, Levante 0.25 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Levante win broke the near-deadlock. Girona shipped 4 against a 2.75 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Levante scored 4 against a 1.25 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 2.25 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.