Girona 7-0 Granada CF – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Girona at 81% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Girona vs Granada CF encounter.

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Full Analysis

Estadi Municipal de Montilivi plays host to Girona versus Granada CF in La Liga (matchday 38). Kick-off: Friday 24 May 2024 at 21:00 UK time.

Current Form

Girona's record over their last 10 games: 6W 1D 3L (1.90 PPG). Last five: W W D L W. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

In front of their own supporters, Girona have posted 8W 1D 1L from their last 10 home games — 2.50 PPG. They are averaging 2.80 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 2.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.90 — Girona are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.

Granada CF (all games): 2W 1D 7L across their last 10 — 0.70 points per game. Last five: W L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.

Granada CF's away record over their last 10 away games: 0W 2D 8L (0.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.

Form favours the hosts. Girona's 1.90 PPG return is 1.20 points per game ahead of Granada CF's 0.70 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.

Head-to-Head

The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 1 H2H match in our data, Girona edge it 1 wins to 0, with 0 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 1 H2H match in our data averaged 6.0 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 18 Sep 2023, ended Girona 4–2 Granada CF — a Girona win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 6.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

Trading

Girona half-time and goal-timing data (last 37 games, 18 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 61% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; of the 8 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.

Granada CF half-time and goal-timing data (last 37 games, 18 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 78% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; of the 6 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Girona 57% versus Granada CF 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Girona 62% | Granada CF 46%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Girona 2.93 xG and Granada CF 0.76 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Girona attack 1.504 / defence 0.965 | Granada CF attack 0.689 / defence 1.376. League average goals — home 1.416 / away 1.144. Girona carry an above-average attack rating of 1.504 — their 2.93 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Granada CF's defence rating of 1.376 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Girona's projected output up. Granada CF's attack rating of 0.689 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.76. Data: built from Girona's last 75 games and Granada CF's last 37.

Result probabilities: Girona 81% | Draw 12% | Granada CF 7%. Fair-value odds: Girona 1.23 | Draw 8.31 | Granada CF 14.79. The model has a clear lean to Girona (81%) — a 69pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 71% | BTTS Yes probability 50% | Total xG 3.69. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 71% — a total xG of 3.69 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 50% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Girona at 81% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.

Poisson projects 3.69 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 71% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Girona's last 10 home games and Granada CF's last 10 away games) averaging 3.2 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on Yes. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Girona 50% (last 10 home games) | Granada CF 40% (last 10 away games).

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