Girona 1-2 Celta Vigo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Celta Vigo at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Girona vs Celta Vigo fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Girona host Celta Vigo at Estadio Municipal de Montilivi in La Liga, Regular Season - 26. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 1 March 2026 at 20:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Girona — All Games: 5W 3D 2L from 10 La Liga outings this season, averaging 1.80 points per game. Last five: D L D W D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Girona, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Girona have posted 4W 4D 2L at Estadio Municipal de Montilivi — 1.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Celta Vigo stand at 5W 3D 2L from 10 La Liga matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: L D L D W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Celta Vigo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Celta Vigo's away record: 5W 3D 2L from 10 road trips in La Liga this season (1.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Girona at 1.80 PPG versus Celta Vigo's 1.80. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 7 previous meetings, Girona have won 2, Celta Vigo 1, with 4 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 1.9 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 14 Sep 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Girona in-play and half-time data (63 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games).
Celta Vigo in-play and half-time data (63 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Girona 56% and Celta Vigo 65% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Girona 54% | Celta Vigo 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Girona 1.12 xG and Celta Vigo 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Girona attack 0.861 / defence 1.082 | Celta Vigo attack 0.994 / defence 0.859. League average goals — home 1.515 / away 1.129. Data: 63 Girona games / 63 Celta Vigo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Girona 33% | Draw 29% | Celta Vigo 38%. Fair-value odds: Girona 3.03 | Draw 3.45 | Celta Vigo 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.33. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.33 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Celta Vigo at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Celta Vigo offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.33 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 41% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 1.9 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 48% on No. Form rates are neutral: Girona 50% | Celta Vigo 50%.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Girona vs Celta Vigo | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Estadio Municipal de Montilivi • Kick-off: Sunday 1 Mar 2026, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Girona 33% | Draw 29% | Celta Vigo 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 48% | xG Girona 1.12 / Celta Vigo 1.21 • Poisson strength factors: Girona attack 0.861 / def 1.082 | Celta Vigo attack 0.994 / def 0.859 | league avg home 1.515 / away 1.129 • Poisson stance: Celta Vigo (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.12
Girona xG
Expected Goals
1.21
Celta Vigo xG
48%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Girona vs Celta Vigo kick off?
Girona vs Celta Vigo kicked off at 20:00 on Sunday 1 March 2026 at Estadio Municipal de Montilivi.
What was the final score in Girona vs Celta Vigo?
Girona 1 - 2 Celta Vigo.
Where is Girona vs Celta Vigo being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Municipal de Montilivi.
What competition is Girona vs Celta Vigo part of?
Girona vs Celta Vigo is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Girona vs Celta Vigo?
Our statistical model gives Girona a 33% chance of winning, Celta Vigo a 38% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Celta Vigo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Girona vs Celta Vigo?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Girona and Celta Vigo will score (BTTS).
Will Girona vs Celta Vigo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Girona and Celta Vigo?
Record (7 meetings): Girona 2W | Draws 4 | Celta Vigo 1W.
What form are Girona and Celta Vigo in?
Girona (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-L-D-W-D. Celta Vigo (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-D-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Girona's attack rating (0.86) and Celta Vigo's defence rating (0.86), the model arrives at 1.12 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Celta Vigo's attack versus Girona's defence, projects 1.21 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 63/63 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.4%), 0-1 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Celta Vigo Win
33%
3.02
29%
3.42
38%
2.65
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.8%
Away win
1 – 0
10.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.12
Girona xG
Total xG
2.33
1.21
Celta Vigo xG
3.02
33%
Home win
3.42
29%
Draw
2.65
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.08
52%
BTTS No
1.92
Clean Sheet
30%
3.37
33%
3.06
Win to Nil
10%
10.18
12%
8.14
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.7 | 11.8 | 7.1 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.9 | 13.2 | 8.0 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 7.4 | 4.5 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 2.8 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Girona vs Celta Vigo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Girona and Celta Vigo expected to score?
The model projects 1.12 expected goals for Girona and 1.21 for Celta Vigo, a combined total of 2.33.
How confident is the prediction model for Girona vs Celta Vigo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Girona come into this having played 63 games, going 18W 17D 28L for 1.13 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-D-W-D. The sample for Girona is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Celta Vigo sit at 1.46 PPG from 63 outings (25W 17D 21L), a run that reads L-D-L-D-W across their last five. The sample for Celta Vigo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Girona on 1.13 PPG, Celta Vigo on 1.46. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Girona's home form reads 11W 7D 13L across 31 games on their own ground, a 1.29 PPG return.
Away from home, Celta Vigo have taken 1.26 points per game from 31 outings (10W 9D 12L).
Goals in Recent Form
Girona are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.59 conceded per game recently; Celta Vigo are on 1.48 scored and 1.33 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Celta Vigo in 65%.
Last 63 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Girona
Blended
Celta Vigo
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Girona and Celta Vigo in coming into this match?
Girona have gone 18W 17D 28L in their last 63 games (1.13 PPG), while Celta Vigo have gone 25W 17D 21L in their last 63 (1.46 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Girona at home or Celta Vigo away?
Girona's home record (1.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Girona at home: 1.29 PPG; Celta Vigo away: 1.26 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. They last met on 1 March 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Girona's record when hosting Celta Vigo specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Girona
4
Draws
2
Celta Vigo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Girona and Celta Vigo?
From 8 meetings on record, Girona have won 2, Celta Vigo have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Girona and Celta Vigo last play each other?
They last met on 1 March 2026, when Girona 1-2 Celta Vigo.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Girona are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Celta Vigo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Girona 52%, Celta Vigo 68% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 61% (Girona) and 58% (Celta Vigo). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 32% and 36% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Girona have failed to score in 32% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Girona home games / Celta Vigo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Girona play Celta Vigo?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 52% of Girona's games and 68% of Celta Vigo's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Girona vs Celta Vigo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 61% of Girona's matches and 58% of Celta Vigo's.
Do Girona and Celta Vigo tend to score early?
Girona have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Celta Vigo in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Celta Vigo edge out Girona 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Celta Vigo beat Girona 1-2 at Estadio Municipal de Montilivi, Regular Season - 26, in the La Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Girona 1.12 xG and Celta Vigo 1.21 xG, a combined 2.33. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Girona attack 0.86 / defence 1.08 against Celta Vigo attack 0.99 / defence 0.86, drawn from 63/63 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Girona 33% | Draw 29% | Celta Vigo 38%, with Celta Vigo to win its most likely call at 38%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Girona 54%, Celta Vigo 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Girona's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Celta Vigo's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Girona 1.13 PPG, Celta Vigo 1.46 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Celta Vigo win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.