Girona 6-2 Almeria – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Girona at 56%, yet other data sources diverge — this Girona vs Almeria fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Girona and Almeria meet at Estadi Municipal de Montilivi in La Liga, Regular Season - 22. This fixture gets under way on Friday 17 February 2023 at 20:00 UTC.
Current Form
Girona's overall La Liga record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: W L L W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Girona, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Girona's home record at Estadi Municipal de Montilivi: 4W 3D 3L from 10 La Liga appearances (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Almeria (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 La Liga outings this term — 1.20 points per game. Last five: D D W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Almeria, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Almeria away from home this season: 0W 3D 7L from 10 away games — 0.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.30 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.50 for Girona, 1.20 for Almeria — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Girona 0W, Almeria 1W, 0D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 5.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 20 Oct 2022, ended 2–3 with Almeria winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Girona — key trading statistics (21 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Almeria — key trading statistics (21 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 80% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Girona 71% and Almeria 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Girona 52% | Almeria 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Girona 1.68 xG and Almeria 0.90 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Girona attack 0.985 / defence 1.169 | Almeria attack 0.793 / defence 1.313. League average goals — home 1.302 / away 0.969. Almeria bring a strong defensive rating of 1.313 — this is suppressing Girona's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 21 Girona games / 21 Almeria games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Girona 56% | Draw 24% | Almeria 20%. Fair-value odds: Girona 1.79 | Draw 4.17 | Almeria 5.00. The model has a clear lean to Girona (56%) — a 36pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.58. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.58 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Girona are the pick at 56% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.58 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 48% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 48% on No. This conflicts with form data: Girona 70% | Almeria 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Girona vs Almeria | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Estadi Municipal de Montilivi • Kick-off: Friday 17 Feb 2023, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Girona 56% | Draw 24% | Almeria 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 48% | xG Girona 1.68 / Almeria 0.90 • Poisson strength factors: Girona attack 0.985 / def 1.169 | Almeria attack 0.793 / def 1.313 | league avg home 1.302 / away 0.969 • Poisson stance: Girona (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.68
Girona xG
Expected Goals
0.90
Almeria xG
48%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Girona vs Almeria kick off?
Girona vs Almeria kicked off at 20:00 on Friday 17 February 2023 at Estadi Municipal de Montilivi.
What was the final score in Girona vs Almeria?
Girona 6 - 2 Almeria.
Where is Girona vs Almeria being played?
The match is being played at Estadi Municipal de Montilivi.
What competition is Girona vs Almeria part of?
Girona vs Almeria is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Girona vs Almeria?
Our statistical model gives Girona a 56% chance of winning, Almeria a 20% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Girona the favourite.
Will both teams score in Girona vs Almeria?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Girona and Almeria will score (BTTS).
Will Girona vs Almeria have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Girona and Almeria?
Record (1 meetings): Girona 0W | Draws 0 | Almeria 1W.
What form are Girona and Almeria in?
Girona (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-L-W-L. Almeria (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-D-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Girona's attack rating (0.98) and Almeria's defence rating (1.31), the model arrives at 1.68 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Almeria's attack (0.79x) against Girona's defence (1.17x) — and the away total comes out at 0.90.
These ratings are built from 21/21 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.9%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.2%), 2-0 (10.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Girona Win
56%
1.79
24%
4.14
20%
5.01
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
2 – 0
10.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.68
Girona xG
Total xG
2.58
0.90
Almeria xG
1.79
56%
Home win
4.14
24%
Draw
5.01
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.07
52%
BTTS No
1.93
Clean Sheet
41%
2.45
19%
5.39
Win to Nil
23%
4.39
4%
27.00
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 6.8 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 12.7 | 11.4 | 5.1 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.7 | 9.6 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.0 | 5.4 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.5 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Girona vs Almeria?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Girona and Almeria expected to score?
The model projects 1.68 expected goals for Girona and 0.90 for Almeria, a combined total of 2.58.
How confident is the prediction model for Girona vs Almeria?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Girona come into this having played 21 games, going 6W 6D 9L for 1.14 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-W-L. The sample for Girona is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Almeria sit at 1.05 PPG from 21 outings (6W 4D 11L), a run that reads D-D-W-L-L across their last five. The sample for Almeria is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.14 PPG for Girona against 1.05 for Almeria. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Girona's home form reads 4W 3D 3L across 10 games on their own ground, a 1.50 PPG return.
Away from home, Almeria have taken 0.30 points per game from 10 outings (0W 3D 7L). That's a step down from their 1.05 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Almeria's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Girona come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Girona are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 1.48 conceded per game recently; Almeria are on 1.19 scored and 1.62 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Girona have seen both teams score in 71% of their recent games; Almeria in 62%.
Last 21 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Girona
Blended
Almeria
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Girona and Almeria in coming into this match?
Girona have gone 6W 6D 9L in their last 21 games (1.14 PPG), while Almeria have gone 6W 4D 11L in their last 21 (1.05 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Girona at home or Almeria away?
Girona's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Girona at home: 1.50 PPG; Almeria away: 0.30 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since October 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 14 January 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Girona won 6-2 on 17 Feb 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Girona have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Almeria — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Girona
1
Draws
1
Almeria
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Girona and Almeria?
From 4 meetings on record, Girona have won 2, Almeria have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Girona and Almeria last play each other?
They last met on 14 January 2024, when Almeria 0-0 Girona.
Who has won more matches between Girona and Almeria?
Girona have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Girona see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Almeria are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Girona 70%, Almeria 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Girona) and 40% (Almeria).
On the defensive side: Almeria in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Girona home games / Almeria away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Girona play Almeria?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 70% of Girona's games and 50% of Almeria's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Girona vs Almeria usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Girona's recent games and 40% of Almeria's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Girona and Almeria tend to score early?
Girona have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Almeria in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Girona run riot with a 6-2 hammering of Almeria.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Girona beat Almeria 6-2 at Estadi Municipal de Montilivi, Regular Season - 22, in the La Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Girona 1.68 xG and Almeria 0.90 xG, a combined 2.58. The scoreboard read 6-2 for 8 actual goals. Girona beat their projection by 4.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Almeria outscored their 0.90 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Girona attack 0.98 / defence 1.17 against Almeria attack 0.79 / defence 1.31, drawn from 21/21 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Girona 56% | Draw 24% | Almeria 20%, with Girona to win its most likely call at 56%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 8, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 26% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Girona 52%, Almeria 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Girona's trading profile (21 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did.
Almeria's trading profile (21 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Girona 1.14 PPG, Almeria 1.05 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Girona win broke the near-deadlock. Girona (home/away splits) scored 6 against a 1.40 average — above their attacking norm. Almeria (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.60 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 6 against a 1.90 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.