Elche 2-1 Rayo Vallecano – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Elche at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this Elche vs Rayo Vallecano fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a La Liga clash, Regular Season - 25 as Elche welcome Rayo Vallecano to Estadio Manuel Martínez Valero. Kick-off is set for Friday 18 February 2022 at 20:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all La Liga games this season, Elche have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: W W D W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Elche, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Elche at Estadio Manuel Martínez Valero this season: 4W 4D 2L from 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Rayo Vallecano — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 La Liga fixtures this season — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L D L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Rayo Vallecano, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Rayo Vallecano away from home this season: 1W 2D 7L from 10 away games — 0.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.50 PPG (Elche) versus 1.10 (Rayo Vallecano). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Elche, 1 for Rayo Vallecano and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 17 Oct 2021, ended 1–2 with Rayo Vallecano winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Elche in-play and half-time data (23 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Rayo Vallecano in-play and half-time data (23 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (away games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Elche 61% versus Rayo Vallecano 39%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Elche 52% | Rayo Vallecano 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Elche 1.42 xG and Rayo Vallecano 0.75 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Elche attack 0.956 / defence 1.075 | Rayo Vallecano attack 0.612 / defence 1.324. League average goals — home 1.125 / away 1.134. Rayo Vallecano bring a strong defensive rating of 1.324 — this is suppressing Elche's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 24 Elche games / 23 Rayo Vallecano games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Elche 52% | Draw 29% | Rayo Vallecano 18%. Fair-value odds: Elche 1.92 | Draw 3.45 | Rayo Vallecano 5.56. Elche hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.17. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.17 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Elche as the most likely outcome at 52% — moderate model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Elche offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.17 combined xG gives a 37% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 41% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Elche 60% | Rayo Vallecano 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Elche vs Rayo Vallecano | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Estadio Manuel Martínez Valero • Kick-off: Friday 18 Feb 2022, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Elche 52% | Draw 29% | Rayo Vallecano 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 41% | xG Elche 1.42 / Rayo Vallecano 0.75 • Poisson strength factors: Elche attack 0.956 / def 1.075 | Rayo Vallecano attack 0.612 / def 1.324 | league avg home 1.125 / away 1.134 • Poisson stance: Elche (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.42
Elche xG
Expected Goals
0.75
Rayo Vallecano xG
41%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Elche vs Rayo Vallecano kick off?
Elche vs Rayo Vallecano kicked off at 20:00 on Friday 18 February 2022 at Estadio Manuel Martínez Valero.
What was the final score in Elche vs Rayo Vallecano?
Elche 2 - 1 Rayo Vallecano.
Where is Elche vs Rayo Vallecano being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Manuel Martínez Valero.
What competition is Elche vs Rayo Vallecano part of?
Elche vs Rayo Vallecano is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Elche vs Rayo Vallecano?
Our statistical model gives Elche a 52% chance of winning, Rayo Vallecano a 18% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Elche the favourite.
Will both teams score in Elche vs Rayo Vallecano?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Elche and Rayo Vallecano will score (BTTS).
Will Elche vs Rayo Vallecano have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Elche and Rayo Vallecano?
Record (1 meetings): Elche 0W | Draws 0 | Rayo Vallecano 1W.
What form are Elche and Rayo Vallecano in?
Elche (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-D-W-L. Rayo Vallecano (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Elche's attack at 0.96x the league average against Rayo Vallecano's defence at 1.32x — combine the two and it projects 1.42 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Rayo Vallecano's attack versus Elche's defence, projects 0.75 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 24/23 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 14.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (13.7%), 0-0 (13.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Elche Win
52%
1.92
29%
3.39
18%
5.42
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
2 – 0
11.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.42
Elche xG
Total xG
2.17
0.75
Rayo Vallecano xG
1.92
52%
Home win
3.39
29%
Draw
5.42
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.44
59%
BTTS No
1.70
Clean Sheet
47%
2.11
24%
4.15
Win to Nil
25%
4.05
4%
22.51
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.4 | 8.5 | 3.2 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 16.3 | 12.1 | 4.5 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.6 | 8.6 | 3.2 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 5.5 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.0 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Elche vs Rayo Vallecano?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Elche and Rayo Vallecano expected to score?
The model projects 1.42 expected goals for Elche and 0.75 for Rayo Vallecano, a combined total of 2.17.
How confident is the prediction model for Elche vs Rayo Vallecano?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Elche's recent record stands at 6W 7D 10L from 23 games, a 1.09 PPG return, with W-W-D-W-L in the last five. The sample for Elche is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Rayo Vallecano, meanwhile, have gone 9W 4D 10L across 23 games — 1.35 PPG, with L-D-L-L-L in their last five. The sample for Rayo Vallecano is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Elche on 1.09 PPG, Rayo Vallecano on 1.35. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Elche have managed 4W 4D 2L from 10 games — 1.60 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.09 PPG overall — Elche are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Rayo Vallecano's away record stands at 1W 2D 7L across 10 trips, a 0.50 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.35 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Rayo Vallecano's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Elche come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Elche are averaging 1.13 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; Rayo Vallecano are on 1.17 scored and 1.17 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Elche have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Last 23 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Elche
Blended
Rayo Vallecano
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Elche and Rayo Vallecano in coming into this match?
Elche have gone 6W 7D 10L in their last 23 games (1.09 PPG), while Rayo Vallecano have gone 9W 4D 10L in their last 23 (1.35 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Elche at home or Rayo Vallecano away?
Elche's home record (1.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Elche at home: 1.60 PPG; Rayo Vallecano away: 0.50 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. They last met on 3 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 29 Apr 2023, when Elche won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Elche's record when hosting Rayo Vallecano specifically: 3W 0D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Elche
0
Draws
3
Rayo Vallecano
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Elche and Rayo Vallecano?
From 6 meetings on record, Elche have won 3, Rayo Vallecano have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Elche and Rayo Vallecano last play each other?
They last met on 3 April 2026, when Rayo Vallecano 1-0 Elche.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Elche are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Rayo Vallecano are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Elche 60%, Rayo Vallecano 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Elche) and 30% (Rayo Vallecano).
On the defensive side: Rayo Vallecano in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Elche home games / Rayo Vallecano away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Elche play Rayo Vallecano?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Elche's games and 50% of Rayo Vallecano's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Elche vs Rayo Vallecano usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Elche's recent games and 30% of Rayo Vallecano's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Elche and Rayo Vallecano tend to score early?
Elche have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Rayo Vallecano in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Elche edge out Rayo Vallecano 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Elche beat Rayo Vallecano 2-1 at Estadio Manuel Martínez Valero, Regular Season - 25, in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Elche 1.42 xG and Rayo Vallecano 0.75 xG, a combined 2.17. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Elche attack 0.96 / defence 1.07 against Rayo Vallecano attack 0.61 / defence 1.32, drawn from 24/23 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Elche 52% | Draw 29% | Rayo Vallecano 18%, with Elche to win its most likely call at 52%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Elche 52%, Rayo Vallecano 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Elche's trading profile (23 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Rayo Vallecano's trading profile (23 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Elche 1.09 PPG, Rayo Vallecano 1.35 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Elche win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.