Elche 1-2 Girona – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Girona at 41% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Elche vs Girona encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Girona make the trip to Estadio Manuel Martínez Valero to face Elche in La Liga, Regular Season - 14. The match kicks off on Tuesday 8 November 2022 at 18:00 UTC.
Current Form
Elche's overall La Liga record this term: 0W 3D 7L from 10 games (0.30 PPG). Last five: D L D L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 2.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.40 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Elche, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Elche at Estadio Manuel Martínez Valero this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 home games — 0.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 0.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.30 — Elche are significantly better at Estadio Manuel Martínez Valero than their overall form suggests.
Girona have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 La Liga outings this season: 2W 4D 4L. Last five: D L D D W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.80. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Girona, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Girona's away record: 0W 2D 4L from 6 road trips in La Liga this season (0.33 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 83% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.33 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Girona are 0.70 PPG clear of Elche in recent La Liga fixtures (1.00 vs 0.30). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
Trading
Elche half-time and goal-timing data (13 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
Girona half-time and goal-timing data (13 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 80% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 83% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Elche 54% and Girona 85% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Elche 69% | Girona 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Elche 1.06 xG and Girona 1.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Elche attack 0.683 / defence 1.230 | Girona attack 0.904 / defence 1.122. League average goals — home 1.383 / away 1.140. Elche's attack strength of 0.683 is below the league average — the 1.06 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 51 Elche games / 13 Girona games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Elche 31% | Draw 28% | Girona 41%. Fair-value odds: Elche 3.23 | Draw 3.57 | Girona 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.33. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.33 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Girona are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Girona if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.33 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 41% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 47% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Elche 50% | Girona 83% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Elche vs Girona | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Estadio Manuel Martínez Valero • Kick-off: Tuesday 8 Nov 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Elche 31% | Draw 28% | Girona 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 47% | xG Elche 1.06 / Girona 1.27 • Poisson strength factors: Elche attack 0.683 / def 1.230 | Girona attack 0.904 / def 1.122 | league avg home 1.383 / away 1.140 • Poisson stance: Girona (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.06
Elche xG
Expected Goals
1.27
Girona xG
47%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Elche vs Girona kick off?
Elche vs Girona kicked off at 18:00 on Tuesday 8 November 2022 at Estadio Manuel Martínez Valero.
What was the final score in Elche vs Girona?
Elche 1 - 2 Girona.
Where is Elche vs Girona being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Manuel Martínez Valero.
What competition is Elche vs Girona part of?
Elche vs Girona is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Elche vs Girona?
Our statistical model gives Elche a 31% chance of winning, Girona a 41% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Girona the favourite.
Will both teams score in Elche vs Girona?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Elche and Girona will score (BTTS).
Will Elche vs Girona have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Elche and Girona?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Elche and Girona in?
Elche (all comps): 0W-3D-7L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.40 | L5 D-L-D-L-L. Girona (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-L-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Elche's attacking strength (0.68x league average) is weighed against Girona's defensive record (1.12x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.06. Flip it around — Girona's attack (0.90x) against Elche's defence (1.23x) — and the away total comes out at 1.27.
These ratings are built from 51/13 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.4%), 0-1 (10.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Girona Win
31%
3.26
28%
3.53
41%
2.44
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.4%
Away win
1 – 0
10.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.06
Elche xG
Total xG
2.33
1.27
Girona xG
3.26
31%
Home win
3.53
28%
Draw
2.44
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.12
53%
BTTS No
1.89
Clean Sheet
28%
3.56
35%
2.89
Win to Nil
9%
11.59
14%
7.05
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.7 | 12.4 | 7.8 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.3 | 13.1 | 8.3 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 6.9 | 4.4 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.5 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Elche vs Girona?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Elche and Girona expected to score?
The model projects 1.06 expected goals for Elche and 1.27 for Girona, a combined total of 2.33.
How confident is the prediction model for Elche vs Girona?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Elche's recent record stands at 0W 4D 9L from 13 games, a 0.31 PPG return, with D-L-D-L-L in the last five. The sample for Elche is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Girona, meanwhile, have gone 3W 4D 6L across 13 games — 1.00 PPG, with D-L-D-D-W in their last five. The sample for Girona is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Girona by 0.69 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Elche heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Elche have managed 0W 2D 4L from 6 games — 0.33 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Girona's away record stands at 0W 2D 4L across 6 trips, a 0.33 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.00 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Girona's season.
Attack vs Defence
Elche are averaging 0.69 goals scored and 2.23 conceded per game recently; Girona are on 1.38 scored and 1.62 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Girona in 85%.
Last 13 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Elche
Blended
Girona
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Elche and Girona in coming into this match?
Elche have gone 0W 4D 9L in their last 13 games (0.31 PPG), while Girona have gone 3W 4D 6L in their last 13 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Elche at home or Girona away?
Elche's home record (0.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Elche at home: 0.33 PPG; Girona away: 0.33 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. The two were last together as recently as 23 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Elche won 3-0 on 7 Dec 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Elche have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Girona — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Elche
1
Draws
2
Girona
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Elche and Girona?
From 4 meetings on record, Elche have won 1, Girona have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Elche and Girona last play each other?
They last met on 23 May 2026, when Girona 1-1 Elche.
Who has won more matches between Elche and Girona?
Girona have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Elche are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches.
Girona are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 50% for Elche, 83% for Girona — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Elche) and 50% (Girona).
On the defensive side: Elche have failed to score in 50% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Elche home games / Girona away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Elche play Girona?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Elche's games and 83% of Girona's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Elche vs Girona usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Elche's recent games and 50% of Girona's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Elche and Girona tend to score early?
Elche have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Girona in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Girona edge out Elche 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Girona beat Elche 1-2 at Estadio Manuel Martínez Valero, Regular Season - 14, in the La Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Elche 1.06 xG and Girona 1.27 xG, a combined 2.33. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Elche attack 0.68 / defence 1.23 against Girona attack 0.90 / defence 1.12, drawn from 51/13 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Elche 31% | Draw 28% | Girona 41%, with Girona to win its most likely call at 41%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Elche 69%, Girona 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 69%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Elche's trading profile (13 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Girona's trading profile (13 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 85% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Girona arrived the stronger side — 1.00 PPG against 0.31. Form held, and they took the win. Girona (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.