Elche 1-1 Almeria – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Elche at 47% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Elche vs Almeria encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Estadio Manuel Martínez Valero plays host to Elche versus Almeria in La Liga, Regular Season - 2. Kick-off: Monday 22 August 2022 at 19:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Elche have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 La Liga outings this season: 3W 1D 6L. Last five: L L L W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Elche have played only a handful of La Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Elche have posted 5W 1D 4L at Estadio Manuel Martínez Valero — 1.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Elche are significantly better at Estadio Manuel Martínez Valero than their overall form suggests.
Almeria (all games): 0W 0D 1L across 1 La Liga outings this term — 0.00 points per game. Last five: L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Almeria have played only a handful of La Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Form favours the hosts. Elche's 1.00 PPG return is 1.00 points per game ahead of Almeria's 0.00 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using overall form) — Elche have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Almeria in 100%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Elche 1.47 xG and Almeria 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Elche attack 1.069 / defence 0.986 | Almeria attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.197 / away 1.208. Data: 39 Elche games / 1 Almeria games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Elche 47% | Draw 28% | Almeria 25%. Fair-value odds: Elche 2.13 | Draw 3.57 | Almeria 4.00. Elche hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.48. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.48 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Elche at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Elche if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.48 combined xG gives a 45% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Elche vs Almeria | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Estadio Manuel Martínez Valero • Kick-off: Monday 22 Aug 2022, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Elche 47% | Draw 28% | Almeria 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 50% | xG Elche 1.47 / Almeria 1.01 • Poisson strength factors: Elche attack 1.069 / def 0.986 | Almeria attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.197 / away 1.208 • Poisson stance: Elche (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.47
Elche xG
Expected Goals
1.01
Almeria xG
50%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Elche vs Almeria kick off?
Elche vs Almeria kicked off at 19:00 on Monday 22 August 2022 at Estadio Manuel Martínez Valero.
What was the final score in Elche vs Almeria?
Elche 1 - 1 Almeria.
Where is Elche vs Almeria being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Manuel Martínez Valero.
What competition is Elche vs Almeria part of?
Elche vs Almeria is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Elche vs Almeria?
Our statistical model gives Elche a 47% chance of winning, Almeria a 25% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Elche the favourite.
Will both teams score in Elche vs Almeria?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Elche and Almeria will score (BTTS).
Will Elche vs Almeria have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Elche and Almeria?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Elche and Almeria in?
Elche (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-L-W-L. Almeria (all comps): 0W-0D-1L in 1 | 0.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.00 | L5 L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Elche's attack at 1.07x the league average against Almeria's defence at 1.15x — combine the two and it projects 1.47 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Almeria's attack (0.85x) against Elche's defence (0.99x) — and the away total comes out at 1.01.
The sample (39/1 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.7%), 0-0 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Elche Win
47%
2.14
28%
3.56
25%
3.99
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.3%
Home win
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.47
Elche xG
Total xG
2.48
1.01
Almeria xG
2.14
47%
Home win
3.56
28%
Draw
3.99
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.00
50%
BTTS No
2.00
Clean Sheet
36%
2.75
23%
4.36
Win to Nil
17%
5.88
6%
17.38
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3 | 8.4 | 4.3 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.3 | 12.4 | 6.3 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.0 | 9.1 | 4.6 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 4.5 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Elche vs Almeria?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Elche and Almeria expected to score?
The model projects 1.47 expected goals for Elche and 1.01 for Almeria, a combined total of 2.48.
How confident is the prediction model for Elche vs Almeria?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Elche's recent record stands at 0W 0D 1L from 1 games, a 0.00 PPG return, with L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Elche, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Almeria, meanwhile, have gone 0W 0D 1L across 1 games — 0.00 PPG, with L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Almeria, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.00 PPG for Elche against 0.00 for Almeria. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Attack vs Defence
Elche are averaging 0.00 goals scored and 3.00 conceded per game recently; Almeria are on 1.00 scored and 2.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Elche have seen both teams score in 0% of their recent games; Almeria in 100%.
Last 1 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Elche
Early Season
Almeria
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Elche and Almeria in coming into this match?
Elche have gone 0W 0D 1L in their last 1 games (0.00 PPG), while Almeria have gone 0W 0D 1L in their last 1 (0.00 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 2 May 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Elche
1
Draws
1
Almeria
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Elche and Almeria?
From 2 meetings on record, Elche have won 0, Almeria have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Elche and Almeria last play each other?
They last met on 2 May 2023, when Almeria 2-1 Elche.
Who has won more matches between Elche and Almeria?
Almeria have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Elche home games / Almeria away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Elche play Almeria?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of Elche's recent matches and 100% of Almeria's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Elche vs Almeria usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 100% of Elche's matches and 100% of Almeria's.
Do Elche and Almeria tend to score early?
Elche have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Almeria in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Elche and Almeria share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Elche and Almeria finished level at 1-1 at Estadio Manuel Martínez Valero, Regular Season - 2, in the La Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Elche 1.47 xG and Almeria 1.01 xG, a combined 2.48. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Elche attack 1.07 / defence 0.99 against Almeria attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 39/1 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Elche 47% | Draw 28% | Almeria 25%, with Elche to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 100% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Elche 100%, Almeria 100%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Elche 0.00 PPG, Almeria 0.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Elche scored 1 against a 0.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 3.00 average — tighter than their form line. Almeria conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.