Celta Vigo 2-0 Osasuna – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Osasuna at 36%, yet in-form Celta Vigo provide a compelling counter-argument — this Celta Vigo vs Osasuna fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A La Liga encounter, Regular Season - 21 sees Osasuna travel to Abanca-Balaídos to take on Celta Vigo. The game is scheduled for Wednesday 19 January 2022, 18:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Celta Vigo stand at 3W 4D 3L from 10 La Liga matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L D W W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Celta Vigo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Celta Vigo have posted 2W 2D 6L at Abanca-Balaídos — 0.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.80 lags behind their overall 1.30 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Abanca-Balaídos this season.
Osasuna — All Games: 1W 4D 5L from 10 La Liga fixtures this season — 0.70 PPG. Last five: D D L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Osasuna, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Osasuna away from home this season: 4W 2D 3L from 9 away games — 1.56 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.11 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.56 exceeds their overall 0.70 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Celta Vigo carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.60 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.30 vs 0.70. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Celta Vigo, 0 for Osasuna and 1 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The last 1 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 0.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 23 Aug 2021, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Celta Vigo in-play tendencies (20 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
Osasuna in-play tendencies (20 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Celta Vigo 40% versus Osasuna 45%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Celta Vigo 40% | Osasuna 35%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Celta Vigo 1.03 xG and Osasuna 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Celta Vigo attack 0.944 / defence 1.358 | Osasuna attack 0.749 / defence 0.994. League average goals — home 1.098 / away 1.080. Data: 20 Celta Vigo games / 20 Osasuna games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Celta Vigo 32% | Draw 32% | Osasuna 36%. Fair-value odds: Celta Vigo 3.12 | Draw 3.12 | Osasuna 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.13. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.13 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Osasuna as the most likely outcome at 36% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Celta Vigo (1.30 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Osasuna offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.13 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 36% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 44% on No. Form rates are neutral: Celta Vigo 60% | Osasuna 33%.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Celta Vigo vs Osasuna | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Abanca-Balaídos • Kick-off: Wednesday 19 Jan 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Celta Vigo 32% | Draw 32% | Osasuna 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 44% | xG Celta Vigo 1.03 / Osasuna 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: Celta Vigo attack 0.944 / def 1.358 | Osasuna attack 0.749 / def 0.994 | league avg home 1.098 / away 1.080 • Poisson stance: Osasuna (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.03
Celta Vigo xG
Expected Goals
1.10
Osasuna xG
44%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Celta Vigo vs Osasuna kick off?
Celta Vigo vs Osasuna kicked off at 18:00 on Wednesday 19 January 2022 at Abanca-Balaídos.
What was the final score in Celta Vigo vs Osasuna?
Celta Vigo 2 - 0 Osasuna.
Where is Celta Vigo vs Osasuna being played?
The match is being played at Abanca-Balaídos.
What competition is Celta Vigo vs Osasuna part of?
Celta Vigo vs Osasuna is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Celta Vigo vs Osasuna?
Our statistical model gives Celta Vigo a 32% chance of winning, Osasuna a 36% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Osasuna the favourite.
Will both teams score in Celta Vigo vs Osasuna?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Celta Vigo and Osasuna will score (BTTS).
Will Celta Vigo vs Osasuna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Celta Vigo and Osasuna?
Record (1 meetings): Celta Vigo 0W | Draws 1 | Osasuna 0W.
What form are Celta Vigo and Osasuna in?
Celta Vigo (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-D-W-W-L. Osasuna (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-D-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Celta Vigo's attack at 0.94x the league average against Osasuna's defence at 0.99x — combine the two and it projects 1.03 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Osasuna's attack versus Celta Vigo's defence, projects 1.10 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 20/20 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (13.6%), 0-1 (11.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Osasuna Win
32%
3.11
32%
3.10
36%
2.81
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
13.1%
Away win
1 – 0
12.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.03
Celta Vigo xG
Total xG
2.13
1.10
Osasuna xG
3.11
32%
Home win
3.10
32%
Draw
2.81
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.26
56%
BTTS No
1.79
Clean Sheet
33%
3.00
36%
2.80
Win to Nil
11%
9.33
13%
7.87
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.9 | 13.1 | 7.2 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.3 | 13.5 | 7.4 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 6.9 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 2.4 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Celta Vigo vs Osasuna?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Celta Vigo and Osasuna expected to score?
The model projects 1.03 expected goals for Celta Vigo and 1.10 for Osasuna, a combined total of 2.13.
How confident is the prediction model for Celta Vigo vs Osasuna?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Celta Vigo come into this having played 20 games, going 6W 5D 9L for 1.15 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-W-W-L. The sample for Celta Vigo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Osasuna sit at 1.25 PPG from 20 outings (6W 7D 7L), a run that reads D-D-L-L-W across their last five. The sample for Osasuna is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Celta Vigo on 1.15 PPG, Osasuna on 1.25. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Celta Vigo's home form reads 2W 2D 5L across 9 games on their own ground, a 0.89 PPG return.
Away from home, Osasuna have taken 1.56 points per game from 9 outings (4W 2D 3L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Osasuna come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Celta Vigo are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.15 conceded per game recently; Osasuna are on 1.00 scored and 1.25 conceded.
Defensively: Celta Vigo have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their games; Osasuna in 35% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 20 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Celta Vigo
Blended
Osasuna
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Celta Vigo and Osasuna in coming into this match?
Celta Vigo have gone 6W 5D 9L in their last 20 games (1.15 PPG), while Osasuna have gone 6W 7D 7L in their last 20 (1.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Celta Vigo at home or Osasuna away?
Osasuna's away record (1.56 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Celta Vigo at home: 0.89 PPG; Osasuna away: 1.56 PPG.
Have Celta Vigo or Osasuna been keeping clean sheets recently?
Celta Vigo have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Osasuna in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Celta Vigo and Osasuna runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. They last met on 6 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 4 Feb 2024, when Celta Vigo won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Celta Vigo's record when hosting Osasuna specifically: 2W 0D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Celta Vigo
2
Draws
4
Osasuna
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Celta Vigo and Osasuna?
From 10 meetings on record, Celta Vigo have won 4, Osasuna have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Celta Vigo and Osasuna last play each other?
They last met on 6 February 2026, when Celta Vigo 1-2 Osasuna.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Celta Vigo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Osasuna see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Celta Vigo 56%, Osasuna 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Celta Vigo) and 33% (Osasuna).
On the defensive side: Osasuna in 33%; Celta Vigo have failed to score in 33% of games; Osasuna in 56%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Celta Vigo home games / Osasuna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Celta Vigo play Osasuna?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Celta Vigo's recent matches and 33% of Osasuna's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Celta Vigo vs Osasuna usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Celta Vigo's recent games and 33% of Osasuna's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Celta Vigo and Osasuna tend to score early?
Celta Vigo have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Osasuna in 56% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Celta Vigo cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Osasuna.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Celta Vigo beat Osasuna 2-0 at Abanca-Balaídos, Regular Season - 21, in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Celta Vigo 1.03 xG and Osasuna 1.10 xG, a combined 2.13. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Celta Vigo beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Osasuna landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Celta Vigo attack 0.94 / defence 1.36 against Osasuna attack 0.75 / defence 0.99, drawn from 20/20 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Celta Vigo 32% | Draw 32% | Osasuna 36%, with Osasuna to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual Celta Vigo win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Celta Vigo 40%, Osasuna 35%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Celta Vigo's trading profile (20 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one.
Osasuna's trading profile (20 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Celta Vigo 1.15 PPG, Osasuna 1.25 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Celta Vigo win broke the near-deadlock. Celta Vigo (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.11 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.44 average — tighter than their form line. Osasuna (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.11 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.