Cadiz 1-1 Elche – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Cadiz at 48% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Cadiz vs Elche encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a La Liga clash, Regular Season - 17 as Cadiz welcome Elche to Estadio Nuevo Mirandilla. Kick-off is set for Monday 16 January 2023 at 20:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all La Liga games this season, Cadiz have gone 2W 6D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: W D L D W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Cadiz, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Estadio Nuevo Mirandilla, Cadiz have gone 2W 5D 3L this season (10 games, 1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Elche stand at 0W 3D 7L from 10 La Liga matches — 0.30 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Elche, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in La Liga this season, Elche have posted 0W 2D 8L from 10 away outings — 0.20 PPG. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game.
On current form, Cadiz have the edge — a 0.90 PPG advantage (1.20 vs 0.30) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Cadiz have won 1, Elche 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 3.5 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 7 May 2022, ended 3–0 with Cadiz winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Cadiz in-play tendencies (54 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 52% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 59% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
Elche in-play tendencies (54 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cadiz 44% versus Elche 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cadiz 39% | Elche 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cadiz 1.55 xG and Elche 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cadiz attack 0.885 / defence 1.177 | Elche attack 0.877 / defence 1.358. League average goals — home 1.293 / away 1.061. Elche bring a strong defensive rating of 1.358 — this is suppressing Cadiz's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 54 Cadiz games / 54 Elche games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cadiz 48% | Draw 26% | Elche 26%. Fair-value odds: Cadiz 2.08 | Draw 3.85 | Elche 3.85. Cadiz hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.65. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.65 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Cadiz as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Cadiz offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.65 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 49% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. This conflicts with form data: Cadiz 40% | Elche 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cadiz vs Elche | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Estadio Nuevo Mirandilla • Kick-off: Monday 16 Jan 2023, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cadiz 48% | Draw 26% | Elche 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 53% | xG Cadiz 1.55 / Elche 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: Cadiz attack 0.885 / def 1.177 | Elche attack 0.877 / def 1.358 | league avg home 1.293 / away 1.061 • Poisson stance: Cadiz (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.55
Cadiz xG
Expected Goals
1.09
Elche xG
53%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cadiz vs Elche kick off?
Cadiz vs Elche kicked off at 20:00 on Monday 16 January 2023 at Estadio Nuevo Mirandilla.
What was the final score in Cadiz vs Elche?
Cadiz 1 - 1 Elche.
Where is Cadiz vs Elche being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Nuevo Mirandilla.
What competition is Cadiz vs Elche part of?
Cadiz vs Elche is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Cadiz vs Elche?
Our statistical model gives Cadiz a 48% chance of winning, Elche a 26% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Cadiz the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cadiz vs Elche?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Cadiz and Elche will score (BTTS).
Will Cadiz vs Elche have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cadiz and Elche?
Record (2 meetings): Cadiz 1W | Draws 0 | Elche 1W.
What form are Cadiz and Elche in?
Cadiz (all comps): 2W-6D-2L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-L-D-W. Elche (all comps): 0W-3D-7L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Cadiz's attack at 0.89x the league average against Elche's defence at 1.36x — combine the two and it projects 1.55 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Elche's attack versus Cadiz's defence, projects 1.09 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 54/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (9.4%), 2-1 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cadiz Win
48%
2.11
26%
3.82
26%
3.80
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.0%
Home win
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.55
Cadiz xG
Total xG
2.65
1.09
Elche xG
2.11
48%
Home win
3.82
26%
Draw
3.80
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.12
Clean Sheet
33%
2.99
21%
4.73
Win to Nil
16%
6.29
6%
17.95
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 7.7 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.0 | 12.0 | 6.6 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 9.4 | 5.1 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 4.8 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cadiz vs Elche?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Cadiz and Elche expected to score?
The model projects 1.55 expected goals for Cadiz and 1.09 for Elche, a combined total of 2.65.
How confident is the prediction model for Cadiz vs Elche?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Cadiz come into this having played 54 games, going 11W 21D 22L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-L-D-W. The sample for Cadiz is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Elche sit at 0.85 PPG from 54 outings (11W 13D 30L), a run that reads L-L-L-L-L across their last five. The sample for Elche is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Cadiz on 1.00 PPG, Elche on 0.85. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Cadiz's home form reads 4W 13D 10L across 27 games on their own ground, a 0.93 PPG return.
Away from home, Elche have taken 0.63 points per game from 27 outings (4W 5D 18L).
The Goals Picture
Cadiz are averaging 0.85 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game recently; Elche are on 0.93 scored and 1.59 conceded.
Last 54 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cadiz
Blended
Elche
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cadiz and Elche in coming into this match?
Cadiz have gone 11W 21D 22L in their last 54 games (1.00 PPG), while Elche have gone 11W 13D 30L in their last 54 (0.85 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cadiz at home or Elche away?
Cadiz's home record (0.93 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cadiz at home: 0.93 PPG; Elche away: 0.63 PPG.
Have Cadiz or Elche been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cadiz have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Elche in 15%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Cadiz and Elche runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 4 June 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 7 May 2022, when Cadiz won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Cadiz's record when hosting Elche specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Cadiz
2
Draws
1
Elche
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cadiz and Elche?
From 4 meetings on record, Cadiz have won 1, Elche have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Cadiz and Elche last play each other?
They last met on 4 June 2023, when Elche 1-1 Cadiz.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Cadiz see a goal before the break in 52% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Elche are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cadiz 48%, Elche 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 37% (Cadiz) and 63% (Elche).
On the defensive side: Cadiz have failed to score in 41% of games; Elche in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cadiz home games / Elche away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cadiz play Elche?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Cadiz's recent matches and 48% of Elche's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cadiz vs Elche usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 37% of Cadiz's recent games and 63% of Elche's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cadiz and Elche tend to score early?
Cadiz have had a goal before half-time in 52% of their recent matches, Elche in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Cadiz and Elche share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Estadio Nuevo Mirandilla, Regular Season - 17, as Cadiz and Elche drew 1-1 in the La Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cadiz 1.55 xG and Elche 1.09 xG, a combined 2.65. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cadiz attack 0.89 / defence 1.18 against Elche attack 0.88 / defence 1.36, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cadiz 48% | Draw 26% | Elche 26%, with Cadiz to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cadiz 39%, Elche 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cadiz's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Elche's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cadiz 1.00 PPG, Elche 0.85 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Elche (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.89 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.