Cadiz 1-0 Alaves – Result & Analysis

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Poisson model rates Cadiz at 50% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Cadiz face Alaves.

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Pre-Match Analysis

Cadiz and Alaves meet at Estadio Nuevo Mirandilla in La Liga (matchday 1). This fixture gets under way on Monday 14 August 2023 at 19:30 UK time.

Current Form

Cadiz's record over their last 10 games: 3W 2D 5L (1.10 PPG). Last five: L W L W D. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.

Cadiz's form when playing at home: 6W 1D 3L across their last 10 home games (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Cadiz are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.

Head-to-Head

The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 2 H2H matches in our data, the wins are level at 1 apiece, with 0 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

The 2 H2H matches in our data have been tight, averaging just 1.5 goals per game — a meaningful input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent of those, on 22 May 2022, ended Cadiz 1–0 Alaves — a Cadiz win.

With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Cadiz 1.48 xG and Alaves 0.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cadiz attack 0.938 / defence 0.947 | Alaves attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.375 / away 1.103. Data: built from Cadiz's last 38 games and Alaves's last 0. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.

Result probabilities: Cadiz 50% | Draw 28% | Alaves 22%. Fair-value odds: Cadiz 1.99 | Draw 3.55 | Alaves 4.62. Cadiz hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS Yes probability 46% | Total xG 2.37. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.37 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 54% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Cadiz as the most likely outcome at 50% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Cadiz if the outright odds are short.

Poisson projects 2.37 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 58% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.

The Poisson model's sample (Cadiz 38 games, Alaves 0) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.

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