Barcelona 1-1 Granada CF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Barcelona at 53% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Barcelona vs Granada CF encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Camp Nou plays host to Barcelona versus Granada CF in La Liga, Regular Season - 5. Kick-off: Monday 20 September 2021 at 20:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Barcelona have collected 2.33 PPG across 3 La Liga outings this season: 2W 1D 0L. Last five: W D W. They are averaging 2.33 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Barcelona have played only a handful of La Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Granada CF (all games): 0W 2D 2L across 4 La Liga outings this term — 0.50 points per game. Last five: D D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 1.75 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 4 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Granada CF have played only a handful of La Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
The points-per-game gap of 1.83 in Barcelona's favour (2.33 vs 0.50) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Trading & In-Play
Barcelona — key trading statistics (3 games): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; they lead at the break 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games.
Granada CF — key trading statistics (3 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games; they fail to score in 33% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Barcelona 100% and Granada CF 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Barcelona 67% | Granada CF 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Barcelona 1.68 xG and Granada CF 0.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Barcelona attack 1.377 / defence 1.255 | Granada CF attack 0.643 / defence 1.350. League average goals — home 0.904 / away 1.091. Barcelona carry an above-average attack strength of 1.377 — their λ of 1.68 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Granada CF bring a strong defensive rating of 1.350 — this is suppressing Barcelona's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 3 Barcelona games / 4 Granada CF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Barcelona 53% | Draw 31% | Granada CF 16%. Fair-value odds: Barcelona 1.89 | Draw 3.23 | Granada CF 6.25. Barcelona hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.56. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.56 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Barcelona are the pick at 53% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Barcelona if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.56 combined xG gives a 47% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates corroborate: Barcelona 100% | Granada CF 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Barcelona vs Granada CF | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Camp Nou • Kick-off: Monday 20 Sep 2021, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Barcelona 53% | Draw 31% | Granada CF 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 51% | xG Barcelona 1.68 / Granada CF 0.88 • Poisson strength factors: Barcelona attack 1.377 / def 1.255 | Granada CF attack 0.643 / def 1.350 | league avg home 0.904 / away 1.091 • Poisson stance: Barcelona (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.68
Barcelona xG
Expected Goals
0.88
Granada CF xG
51%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Barcelona vs Granada CF kick off?
Barcelona vs Granada CF kicked off at 20:00 on Monday 20 September 2021 at Camp Nou.
What was the final score in Barcelona vs Granada CF?
Barcelona 1 - 1 Granada CF.
Where is Barcelona vs Granada CF being played?
The match is being played at Camp Nou.
What competition is Barcelona vs Granada CF part of?
Barcelona vs Granada CF is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Barcelona vs Granada CF?
Our statistical model gives Barcelona a 53% chance of winning, Granada CF a 16% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Barcelona the favourite.
Will both teams score in Barcelona vs Granada CF?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Barcelona and Granada CF will score (BTTS).
Will Barcelona vs Granada CF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Barcelona and Granada CF?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Barcelona and Granada CF in?
Barcelona (all comps): 2W-1D-0L in 3 | 2.33 PPG | GF 2.33 / GA 1.33 | L5 W-D-W. Granada CF (all comps): 0W-2D-2L in 4 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.75 | L5 D-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Barcelona's attack at 1.38x the league average against Granada CF's defence at 1.35x — combine the two and it projects 1.68 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Granada CF's attack (0.64x) against Barcelona's defence (1.25x) — and the away total comes out at 0.88.
These ratings are built from 3/4 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.5%), 2-0 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Barcelona Win
53%
1.89
31%
3.23
16%
6.20
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
2 – 0
10.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.68
Barcelona xG
Total xG
2.56
0.88
Granada CF xG
1.89
53%
Home win
3.23
31%
Draw
6.20
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.96
49%
BTTS No
2.04
Clean Sheet
42%
2.41
19%
5.37
Win to Nil
22%
4.55
3%
33.29
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.7 | 6.8 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 13.0 | 11.4 | 5.0 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.9 | 9.6 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 6.1 | 5.4 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.6 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Barcelona vs Granada CF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Barcelona and Granada CF expected to score?
The model projects 1.68 expected goals for Barcelona and 0.88 for Granada CF, a combined total of 2.56.
How confident is the prediction model for Barcelona vs Granada CF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Barcelona's recent record stands at 2W 1D 0L from 3 games, a 2.33 PPG return, with W-D-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Barcelona, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Granada CF, meanwhile, have gone 0W 1D 2L across 3 games — 0.33 PPG, with D-L-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Granada CF, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Barcelona by 2.00 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Granada CF heading into this one.
Attack vs Defence
Barcelona are averaging 2.33 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Granada CF are on 0.67 scored and 2.33 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Barcelona have seen both teams score in 100% of their recent games; Granada CF in 67%.
Last 3 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Barcelona
Early Season
Granada CF
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Barcelona and Granada CF in coming into this match?
Barcelona have gone 2W 1D 0L in their last 3 games (2.33 PPG), while Granada CF have gone 0W 1D 2L in their last 3 (0.33 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 11 February 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
The last 4 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Barcelona have gone 0W 2D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Granada CF — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Barcelona
4
Draws
0
Granada CF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Barcelona and Granada CF?
From 4 meetings on record, Barcelona have won 0, Granada CF have won 0, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Barcelona and Granada CF last play each other?
They last met on 11 February 2024, when Barcelona 3-3 Granada CF.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Barcelona are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time.
Granada CF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 100% for Barcelona, 67% for Granada CF — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Barcelona and 67% for Granada CF. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Granada CF in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Barcelona home games / Granada CF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Barcelona play Granada CF?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 100% of Barcelona's games and 67% of Granada CF's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Barcelona vs Granada CF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Barcelona's matches and 67% of Granada CF's.
Do Barcelona and Granada CF tend to score early?
Barcelona have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Granada CF in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Barcelona and Granada CF share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Barcelona and Granada CF finished level at 1-1 at Camp Nou, Regular Season - 5, in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Barcelona 1.68 xG and Granada CF 0.88 xG, a combined 2.56. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Barcelona attack 1.38 / defence 1.25 against Granada CF attack 0.64 / defence 1.35, drawn from 3/4 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Barcelona 53% | Draw 31% | Granada CF 16%, with Barcelona to win its most likely call at 53%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Barcelona 67%, Granada CF 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 83%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Barcelona's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 100% of their matches — today it did.
Granada CF's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Barcelona arrived the stronger side — 2.33 PPG against 0.33. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Barcelona managed 1 against a 2.33 scoring average — below par going forward. Granada CF conceded 1 against a 2.33 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.