Atletico Madrid 3-1 Girona – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Atletico Madrid at 54% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Atletico Madrid face Girona.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Atletico Madrid host Girona at Estádio Cívitas Metropolitano in La Liga (matchday 31). Kick-off is Saturday 13 April 2024 at 14:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Atletico Madrid — last 10 games: 5W 2D 3L, averaging 1.70 points per game. Last five: D W L L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
In front of their own supporters, Atletico Madrid have posted 8W 1D 1L from their last 10 home games — 2.50 PPG. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 2.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.70 — Atletico Madrid are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Across their last 10 games, Girona have recorded 5W 1D 4L — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W L W L W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.20. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Girona's away record over their last 10 away games: 4W 2D 4L (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.70 PPG (Atletico Madrid) versus 1.60 (Girona). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H Record
The H2H picture is flat: the 3 H2H matches we hold have produced 2 wins for Atletico Madrid, 1 for Girona and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.7 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 3 Jan 2024, ended Atletico Madrid 3–4 Girona — a Girona win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.7 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Atletico Madrid in-play tendencies (last 68 games, 34 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 95% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games).
Girona in-play tendencies (last 68 games, 34 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 27%; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Atletico Madrid 52% versus Girona 63%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Atletico Madrid 54% | Girona 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Atletico Madrid 1.88 xG and Girona 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Atletico Madrid attack 1.327 / defence 1.022 | Girona attack 1.018 / defence 1.039. League average goals — home 1.362 / away 1.090. Atletico Madrid carry an above-average attack rating of 1.327 — their 1.88 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Data: built from Atletico Madrid's last 68 games and Girona's last 68.
Result probabilities: Atletico Madrid 54% | Draw 23% | Girona 22%. Fair-value odds: Atletico Madrid 1.84 | Draw 4.30 | Girona 4.46. Atletico Madrid hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS Yes probability 58% | Total xG 3.01. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.01 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 58% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Atletico Madrid are the pick at 54% — moderate model lean. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Atletico Madrid offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 3.01 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 58% — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Atletico Madrid's last 10 home games and Girona's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.7 goals per game across 3 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on Yes. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Atletico Madrid 50% (last 10 home games) | Girona 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Atletico Madrid vs Girona | Competition: La Liga, matchday 31 | Venue: Estádio Cívitas Metropolitano • Kick-off: Saturday 13 April 2024 at 14:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Atletico Madrid 54% | Draw 23% | Girona 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% (Under 42%) | BTTS Yes 58% (No 42%) | xG Atletico Madrid 1.88 / Girona 1.14 • Poisson strength factors: Atletico Madrid attack 1.327 / def 1.022 | Girona attack 1.018 / def 1.039 | league avg home 1.362 / away 1.090 • Poisson stance: Atletico Madrid (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.88
Atletico Madrid xG
Expected Goals
1.14
Girona xG
58%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Atletico Madrid vs Girona FAQs
What time does Atletico Madrid vs Girona kick off?
Atletico Madrid vs Girona kicked off at 14:00 UK time on Saturday 13 April 2024 at Estádio Cívitas Metropolitano.
What was the final score in Atletico Madrid vs Girona?
Atletico Madrid 3 - 1 Girona.
Where is Atletico Madrid vs Girona being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Cívitas Metropolitano.
What competition is Atletico Madrid vs Girona part of?
Atletico Madrid vs Girona is a La Liga fixture (matchday 31) (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Atletico Madrid vs Girona?
Our statistical model gives Atletico Madrid a 54% chance of winning, Girona a 22% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Atletico Madrid the favourite.
Will both teams score in Atletico Madrid vs Girona?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Atletico Madrid and Girona will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Atletico Madrid vs Girona have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Atletico Madrid's attacking strength (1.33x league average) is weighed against Girona's defensive record (1.04x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.88. The same calculation in reverse, Girona's attack versus Atletico Madrid's defence, projects 1.14 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Atletico Madrid's last 68 games and Girona's last 68 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Atletico Madrid Win
54%
1.84
23%
4.30
22%
4.46
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
1 – 0
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.88
Atletico Madrid xG
Total xG
3.01
1.14
Girona xG
1.84
54%
Home win
4.30
23%
Draw
4.46
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.73
42%
BTTS No
2.37
Clean Sheet
32%
3.11
15%
6.53
Win to Nil
17%
5.73
3%
29.12
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 5.6 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.2 | 10.5 | 5.9 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 9.8 | 5.6 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.4 | 6.2 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.5 | 2.9 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Atletico Madrid vs Girona Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Atletico Madrid vs Girona?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.8%.
How many goals are Atletico Madrid and Girona expected to score?
The model projects 1.88 expected goals for Atletico Madrid and 1.14 for Girona, a combined total of 3.01.
How confident is the prediction model for Atletico Madrid vs Girona?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 68 outings, Atletico Madrid have picked up 1.99 PPG on a 41W 12D 15L record — D-W-L-L-W across the most recent five.
Girona's form line: 33W 15D 20L from 68 games, 1.68 PPG, last five W-L-W-L-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: Atletico Madrid on 1.99 PPG, Girona on 1.68. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Atletico Madrid have posted 2.41 PPG from their last 34 home games (26W 4D 4L). That's noticeably better than their 1.99 PPG overall — Atletico Madrid are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Girona have gone 11W 10D 13L from their last 34 away games — 1.26 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.68 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Girona's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Atletico Madrid come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Atletico Madrid are averaging 1.85 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Girona are on 1.76 scored and 1.34 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Girona in 63%.
Last 68 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Atletico Madrid
Current Season
Girona
Current Season
Atletico Madrid (Home) vs Girona (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Atletico Madrid
Current Season
Girona
Current Season
❓ Atletico Madrid vs Girona Form FAQs
What form are Atletico Madrid and Girona in coming into this match?
Atletico Madrid have gone 41W 12D 15L in their last 68 games (1.99 PPG), while Girona have gone 33W 15D 20L in their last 68 (1.68 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Atletico Madrid at home or Girona away?
Atletico Madrid's home record (2.41 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Atletico Madrid at home: 2.41 PPG; Girona away: 1.26 PPG.
Have Atletico Madrid or Girona been keeping clean sheets recently?
Atletico Madrid have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Girona in 21%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 8 H2H matches in our data, going back to October 2022. All of them came in La Liga. The most recent was on 17 May 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Atletico Madrid have won the most recent 5 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 25 May 2025, when Atletico Madrid won Girona 0-4 Atletico Madrid.
Atletico Madrid's record when hosting Girona specifically: 4W 0D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
7
Atletico Madrid
0
Draws
1
Girona
Recent Meetings
❓ Atletico Madrid vs Girona H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Atletico Madrid and Girona?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Atletico Madrid have won 7, Girona have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Atletico Madrid and Girona last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 17 May 2026: Atletico Madrid 1-0 Girona.
Who has won more matches between Atletico Madrid and Girona?
Atletico Madrid have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Atletico Madrid are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 56% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Girona are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 23% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Atletico Madrid 62%, Girona 65% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 68% for Atletico Madrid and 53% for Girona. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 32% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Girona in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Atletico Madrid home games / Girona away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Atletico Madrid vs Girona Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Atletico Madrid and Girona matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Atletico Madrid's games and 65% of Girona's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Atletico Madrid and Girona matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 68% of Atletico Madrid's matches and 53% of Girona's.
Do Atletico Madrid and Girona matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 76% of Atletico Madrid's recent matches and 76% of Girona's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Atletico Madrid cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Girona.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Atletico Madrid beat Girona 3-1 at Estádio Cívitas Metropolitano, Regular Season - 31, in the La Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Atletico Madrid 1.88 xG and Girona 1.14 xG, a combined 3.01. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Atletico Madrid beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Atletico Madrid attack 1.33 / defence 1.02 against Girona attack 1.02 / defence 1.04, drawn from 68/68 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Atletico Madrid 54% | Draw 23% | Girona 22%, with Atletico Madrid to win its most likely call at 54%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 36% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Atletico Madrid 54%, Girona 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Atletico Madrid's trading profile (68 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Girona's trading profile (68 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Atletico Madrid 1.99 PPG, Girona 1.68 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Atletico Madrid win broke the near-deadlock. Girona (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.44 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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