Athletic Club 0-0 Valencia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Athletic Club at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Athletic Club vs Valencia fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A La Liga encounter, Regular Season - 35 sees Valencia travel to San Mamés Barria to take on Athletic Club. The game is scheduled for Saturday 7 May 2022, 15:15 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Athletic Club stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 La Liga matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W D L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Athletic Club at San Mamés Barria this season: 6W 1D 3L from 10 home games — 1.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Valencia — All Games: 3W 4D 3L from 10 La Liga fixtures this season — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D D L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
On the road, Valencia have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Athletic Club 1.70 PPG, Valencia 1.30 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Athletic Club register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Valencia in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Athletic Club, 0 for Valencia and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 25 Sep 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Athletic Club trading profile (34 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Valencia trading profile (34 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Athletic Club 50% versus Valencia 68%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Athletic Club 38% | Valencia 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Athletic Club 1.52 xG and Valencia 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Athletic Club attack 1.147 / defence 1.093 | Valencia attack 0.805 / defence 1.235. League average goals — home 1.076 / away 1.150. Valencia bring a strong defensive rating of 1.235 — this is suppressing Athletic Club's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 34 Athletic Club games / 34 Valencia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Athletic Club 48% | Draw 27% | Valencia 24%. Fair-value odds: Athletic Club 2.08 | Draw 3.70 | Valencia 4.17. Athletic Club hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.54. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.54 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Athletic Club as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Athletic Club offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.54 combined xG gives a 47% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 2.9 goals per game points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Athletic Club 60% | Valencia 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Athletic Club vs Valencia | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 35 | Venue: San Mamés Barria • Kick-off: Saturday 7 May 2022, 15:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Athletic Club 48% | Draw 27% | Valencia 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 50% | xG Athletic Club 1.52 / Valencia 1.01 • Poisson strength factors: Athletic Club attack 1.147 / def 1.093 | Valencia attack 0.805 / def 1.235 | league avg home 1.076 / away 1.150 • Poisson stance: Athletic Club (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.52
Athletic Club xG
Expected Goals
1.01
Valencia xG
50%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Athletic Club vs Valencia kick off?
Athletic Club vs Valencia kicked off at 15:15 on Saturday 7 May 2022 at San Mamés Barria.
What was the final score in Athletic Club vs Valencia?
Athletic Club 0 - 0 Valencia.
Where is Athletic Club vs Valencia being played?
The match is being played at San Mamés Barria.
What competition is Athletic Club vs Valencia part of?
Athletic Club vs Valencia is a Regular Season - 35 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Athletic Club vs Valencia?
Our statistical model gives Athletic Club a 48% chance of winning, Valencia a 24% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Athletic Club the favourite.
Will both teams score in Athletic Club vs Valencia?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Athletic Club and Valencia will score (BTTS).
Will Athletic Club vs Valencia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Athletic Club and Valencia?
Record (1 meetings): Athletic Club 0W | Draws 1 | Valencia 0W.
What form are Athletic Club and Valencia in?
Athletic Club (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-L-W-W. Valencia (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-D-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Athletic Club's attack at 1.15x the league average against Valencia's defence at 1.24x — combine the two and it projects 1.52 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Valencia's attack versus Athletic Club's defence, projects 1.01 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 34/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.5%), 0-0 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Athletic Club Win
48%
2.06
27%
3.69
24%
4.09
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.1%
Home win
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.52
Athletic Club xG
Total xG
2.54
1.01
Valencia xG
2.06
48%
Home win
3.69
27%
Draw
4.09
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.98
50%
BTTS No
2.02
Clean Sheet
36%
2.75
22%
4.59
Win to Nil
18%
5.67
5%
18.78
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 8.0 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.1 | 12.2 | 6.2 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.2 | 9.3 | 4.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.7 | 4.7 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Athletic Club vs Valencia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Athletic Club and Valencia expected to score?
The model projects 1.52 expected goals for Athletic Club and 1.01 for Valencia, a combined total of 2.54.
How confident is the prediction model for Athletic Club vs Valencia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Athletic Club come into this having played 34 games, going 13W 12D 9L for 1.50 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-L-W-W.
On the other side, Valencia sit at 1.26 PPG from 34 outings (10W 13D 11L), a run that reads D-D-L-L-D across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Athletic Club on 1.50 PPG, Valencia on 1.26. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Athletic Club's home form reads 9W 3D 5L across 17 games on their own ground, a 1.76 PPG return.
Away from home, Valencia have taken 1.18 points per game from 17 outings (5W 5D 7L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Athletic Club come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Athletic Club are averaging 1.21 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Valencia are on 1.32 scored and 1.44 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Valencia in 68%.
Last 34 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Athletic Club
Current Season
Valencia
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Athletic Club and Valencia in coming into this match?
Athletic Club have gone 13W 12D 9L in their last 34 games (1.50 PPG), while Valencia have gone 10W 13D 11L in their last 34 (1.26 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Athletic Club at home or Valencia away?
Athletic Club's home record (1.76 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Athletic Club at home: 1.76 PPG; Valencia away: 1.18 PPG.
Have Athletic Club or Valencia been keeping clean sheets recently?
Athletic Club have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Valencia in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Athletic Club and Valencia runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. The two were last together as recently as 10 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Valencia have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Athletic Club's record when hosting Valencia specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Athletic Club
3
Draws
3
Valencia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Athletic Club and Valencia?
From 10 meetings on record, Athletic Club have won 4, Valencia have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Athletic Club and Valencia last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2026, when Athletic Club 0-1 Valencia.
Who has won more matches between Athletic Club and Valencia?
Athletic Club have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Athletic Club are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches.
Valencia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Athletic Club 59%, Valencia 65% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Athletic Club) and 53% (Valencia).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Athletic Club home games / Valencia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Athletic Club play Valencia?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of Athletic Club's games and 65% of Valencia's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Athletic Club vs Valencia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of Athletic Club's recent games and 53% of Valencia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Athletic Club and Valencia tend to score early?
Athletic Club have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Valencia in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Athletic Club's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at San Mamés Barria, Regular Season - 35, as Athletic Club and Valencia drew 0-0 in the La Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Athletic Club 1.52 xG and Valencia 1.01 xG, a combined 2.54. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Athletic Club fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Valencia landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Athletic Club attack 1.15 / defence 1.09 against Valencia attack 0.81 / defence 1.24, drawn from 34/34 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Athletic Club 48% | Draw 27% | Valencia 24%, with Athletic Club to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Athletic Club 38%, Valencia 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Athletic Club's trading profile (34 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Valencia's trading profile (34 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Athletic Club 1.50 PPG, Valencia 1.26 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Athletic Club (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.59 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.06 average — tighter than their form line. Valencia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.24 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.65 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.