Athletic Club 0-2 Celta Vigo – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Athletic Club at 48% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Athletic Club vs Celta Vigo encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a La Liga clash, Regular Season - 32 as Athletic Club welcome Celta Vigo to San Mamés Barria. Kick-off is set for Sunday 17 April 2022 at 17:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Athletic Club — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 La Liga outings this season, averaging 1.70 points per game. Last five: W L D W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at San Mamés Barria, Athletic Club have gone 5W 2D 3L this season (10 games, 1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Celta Vigo stand at 2W 4D 4L from 10 La Liga matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W L D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Celta Vigo away from home this season: 2W 4D 4L from 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
On current form, Athletic Club have the edge — a 0.70 PPG advantage (1.70 vs 1.00) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Athletic Club, 0 for Celta Vigo and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 28 Aug 2021, ended 1–0 with Athletic Club winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Athletic Club in-play tendencies (31 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Celta Vigo in-play tendencies (31 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 40% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 20% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 27% of games (away games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Athletic Club 52% versus Celta Vigo 39%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Athletic Club 39% | Celta Vigo 36%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Athletic Club 1.29 xG and Celta Vigo 0.80 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Athletic Club attack 1.177 / defence 1.143 | Celta Vigo attack 0.648 / defence 0.970. League average goals — home 1.128 / away 1.084. Data: 31 Athletic Club games / 31 Celta Vigo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Athletic Club 48% | Draw 29% | Celta Vigo 23%. Fair-value odds: Athletic Club 2.08 | Draw 3.45 | Celta Vigo 4.35. Athletic Club hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.09. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.09 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Athletic Club at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Athletic Club offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.09 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 35% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 40% on No. Form rates corroborate: Athletic Club 70% | Celta Vigo 20% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Athletic Club vs Celta Vigo | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: San Mamés Barria • Kick-off: Sunday 17 Apr 2022, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Athletic Club 48% | Draw 29% | Celta Vigo 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 40% | xG Athletic Club 1.29 / Celta Vigo 0.80 • Poisson strength factors: Athletic Club attack 1.177 / def 1.143 | Celta Vigo attack 0.648 / def 0.970 | league avg home 1.128 / away 1.084 • Poisson stance: Athletic Club (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.29
Athletic Club xG
Expected Goals
0.80
Celta Vigo xG
40%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Athletic Club vs Celta Vigo kick off?
Athletic Club vs Celta Vigo kicked off at 17:30 on Sunday 17 April 2022 at San Mamés Barria.
What was the final score in Athletic Club vs Celta Vigo?
Athletic Club 0 - 2 Celta Vigo.
Where is Athletic Club vs Celta Vigo being played?
The match is being played at San Mamés Barria.
What competition is Athletic Club vs Celta Vigo part of?
Athletic Club vs Celta Vigo is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Athletic Club vs Celta Vigo?
Our statistical model gives Athletic Club a 48% chance of winning, Celta Vigo a 23% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Athletic Club the favourite.
Will both teams score in Athletic Club vs Celta Vigo?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Athletic Club and Celta Vigo will score (BTTS).
Will Athletic Club vs Celta Vigo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Athletic Club and Celta Vigo?
Record (1 meetings): Athletic Club 1W | Draws 0 | Celta Vigo 0W.
What form are Athletic Club and Celta Vigo in?
Athletic Club (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-D-W-D. Celta Vigo (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Athletic Club's attacking strength (1.18x league average) is weighed against Celta Vigo's defensive record (0.97x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.29. The same calculation in reverse, Celta Vigo's attack versus Athletic Club's defence, projects 0.80 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 31/31 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.4%. Close behind: 1-0 (14.3%), 0-0 (14.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Athletic Club Win
48%
2.10
29%
3.39
23%
4.36
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
0 – 0
12.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.29
Athletic Club xG
Total xG
2.09
0.80
Celta Vigo xG
2.10
48%
Home win
3.39
29%
Draw
4.36
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.48
60%
BTTS No
1.67
Clean Sheet
45%
2.23
28%
3.62
Win to Nil
21%
4.69
6%
15.80
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.4 | 9.9 | 4.0 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 15.9 | 12.8 | 5.1 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 10.2 | 8.2 | 3.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.4 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Athletic Club vs Celta Vigo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Athletic Club and Celta Vigo expected to score?
The model projects 1.29 expected goals for Athletic Club and 0.80 for Celta Vigo, a combined total of 2.09.
How confident is the prediction model for Athletic Club vs Celta Vigo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 31 outings, Athletic Club have picked up 1.45 PPG on a 11W 12D 8L record — W-L-D-W-D across the most recent five.
Celta Vigo's form line: 9W 9D 13L from 31 games, 1.16 PPG, last five W-L-D-L-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: Athletic Club on 1.45 PPG, Celta Vigo on 1.16. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Athletic Club have posted 1.80 PPG from 15 outings (8W 3D 4L).
On the road, Celta Vigo have gone 4W 5D 6L from 15 away games — 1.13 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Athletic Club come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Athletic Club are averaging 1.16 goals scored and 0.97 conceded per game recently; Celta Vigo are on 1.10 scored and 1.13 conceded.
Defensively: Celta Vigo in 35% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 31 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Athletic Club
Current Season
Celta Vigo
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Athletic Club and Celta Vigo in coming into this match?
Athletic Club have gone 11W 12D 8L in their last 31 games (1.45 PPG), while Celta Vigo have gone 9W 9D 13L in their last 31 (1.16 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Athletic Club at home or Celta Vigo away?
Athletic Club's home record (1.80 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Athletic Club at home: 1.80 PPG; Celta Vigo away: 1.13 PPG.
Have Athletic Club or Celta Vigo been keeping clean sheets recently?
Athletic Club have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Celta Vigo in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. The two were last together as recently as 17 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Athletic Club's record when hosting Celta Vigo specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Athletic Club
1
Draws
4
Celta Vigo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Athletic Club and Celta Vigo?
From 10 meetings on record, Athletic Club have won 5, Celta Vigo have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Athletic Club and Celta Vigo last play each other?
They last met on 17 May 2026, when Athletic Club 1-1 Celta Vigo.
Who has won more matches between Athletic Club and Celta Vigo?
Athletic Club have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Athletic Club are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches.
Celta Vigo see a goal before the break in 40% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Athletic Club 67%, Celta Vigo 20% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Athletic Club) and 27% (Celta Vigo).
On the defensive side: Celta Vigo in 47%; Celta Vigo in 60%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Athletic Club home games / Celta Vigo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Athletic Club play Celta Vigo?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 67% of Athletic Club's recent matches and 20% of Celta Vigo's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Athletic Club vs Celta Vigo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of Athletic Club's recent games and 27% of Celta Vigo's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Athletic Club and Celta Vigo tend to score early?
Athletic Club have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Celta Vigo in 40% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Celta Vigo cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Athletic Club.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Celta Vigo beat Athletic Club 0-2 at San Mamés Barria, Regular Season - 32, in the La Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Athletic Club 1.29 xG and Celta Vigo 0.80 xG, a combined 2.09. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Athletic Club fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Celta Vigo outscored their 0.80 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Athletic Club attack 1.18 / defence 1.14 against Celta Vigo attack 0.65 / defence 0.97, drawn from 31/31 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Athletic Club 48% | Draw 29% | Celta Vigo 23%, with Athletic Club to win its most likely call at 48%. Instead the game produced a Celta Vigo win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 37% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Athletic Club 39%, Celta Vigo 36%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Athletic Club's trading profile (31 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Celta Vigo's trading profile (31 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Athletic Club 1.45 PPG, Celta Vigo 1.16 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Celta Vigo win broke the near-deadlock. Athletic Club (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.67 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.07 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Celta Vigo (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.87 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.93 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.