Almeria 0-3 Osasuna – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Osasuna at 36% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Almeria vs Osasuna encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Power Horse Stadium plays host to Almeria versus Osasuna in La Liga, Regular Season - 30. Kick-off: Saturday 30 March 2024 at 15:15 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Almeria have collected 0.80 PPG across 10 La Liga outings this season: 1W 5D 4L. Last five: D D L D W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
At home at Power Horse Stadium, Almeria have gone 0W 7D 3L this season (10 games, 0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Osasuna's overall La Liga record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: W D W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
On the road, Osasuna have gone 1W 3D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, Osasuna are the stronger side — 0.60 PPG clear of the hosts (1.40 vs 0.80). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H Analysis
Across the last 3 meetings, Osasuna have the stronger historical record — 3 wins to Almeria's 0, with 0 draws in the mix.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 4 Jan 2024, ended 0–1 with Osasuna winning.
It is worth noting that Osasuna have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 3 wins from 3 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading
Almeria half-time and goal-timing data (67 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Osasuna half-time and goal-timing data (67 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Almeria 64% versus Osasuna 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Almeria 61% | Osasuna 37%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Almeria 1.16 xG and Osasuna 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Almeria attack 0.829 / defence 1.244 | Osasuna attack 0.886 / defence 0.996. League average goals — home 1.406 / away 1.094. Data: 67 Almeria games / 67 Osasuna games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Almeria 34% | Draw 29% | Osasuna 36%. Fair-value odds: Almeria 2.94 | Draw 3.45 | Osasuna 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.37. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.37 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Osasuna as the most likely outcome at 36% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Osasuna if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.37 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 42% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 49% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Almeria 50% | Osasuna 60%.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Almeria vs Osasuna | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Power Horse Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 30 Mar 2024, 15:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Almeria 34% | Draw 29% | Osasuna 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 49% | xG Almeria 1.16 / Osasuna 1.21 • Poisson strength factors: Almeria attack 0.829 / def 1.244 | Osasuna attack 0.886 / def 0.996 | league avg home 1.406 / away 1.094 • Poisson stance: Osasuna (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.16
Almeria xG
Expected Goals
1.21
Osasuna xG
49%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Almeria vs Osasuna kick off?
Almeria vs Osasuna kicked off at 15:15 on Saturday 30 March 2024 at Power Horse Stadium.
What was the final score in Almeria vs Osasuna?
Almeria 0 - 3 Osasuna.
Where is Almeria vs Osasuna being played?
The match is being played at Power Horse Stadium.
What competition is Almeria vs Osasuna part of?
Almeria vs Osasuna is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Almeria vs Osasuna?
Our statistical model gives Almeria a 34% chance of winning, Osasuna a 36% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Osasuna the favourite.
Will both teams score in Almeria vs Osasuna?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Almeria and Osasuna will score (BTTS).
Will Almeria vs Osasuna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Almeria and Osasuna?
Record (3 meetings): Almeria 0W | Draws 0 | Osasuna 3W.
What form are Almeria and Osasuna in?
Almeria (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-D-L-D-W. Osasuna (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-D-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Almeria's attack at 0.83x the league average against Osasuna's defence at 1.00x — combine the two and it projects 1.16 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Osasuna's attack (0.89x) against Almeria's defence (1.24x) — and the away total comes out at 1.21.
These ratings are built from 67/67 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.1%), 0-1 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Osasuna Win
34%
2.92
29%
3.41
36%
2.74
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.3%
Away win
1 – 0
10.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.16
Almeria xG
Total xG
2.37
1.21
Osasuna xG
2.92
34%
Home win
3.41
29%
Draw
2.74
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.05
51%
BTTS No
1.95
Clean Sheet
30%
3.34
31%
3.19
Win to Nil
10%
9.76
11%
8.75
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.4 | 11.3 | 6.8 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.9 | 13.1 | 7.9 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 7.6 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 2.9 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Almeria vs Osasuna?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Almeria and Osasuna expected to score?
The model projects 1.16 expected goals for Almeria and 1.21 for Osasuna, a combined total of 2.37.
How confident is the prediction model for Almeria vs Osasuna?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Almeria come into this having played 67 games, going 12W 18D 37L for 0.81 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-L-D-W.
On the other side, Osasuna sit at 1.33 PPG from 67 outings (25W 14D 28L), a run that reads W-D-W-L-L across their last five.
Osasuna carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.52 PPG clear of Almeria — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Almeria's home form reads 10W 11D 12L across 33 games on their own ground, a 1.24 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 0.81 PPG overall — Almeria are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Osasuna have taken 1.03 points per game from 33 outings (8W 10D 15L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Almeria are averaging 1.15 goals scored and 1.82 conceded per game recently; Osasuna are on 1.04 scored and 1.27 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Almeria have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Last 67 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Almeria
Current Season
Osasuna
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Almeria and Osasuna in coming into this match?
Almeria have gone 12W 18D 37L in their last 67 games (0.81 PPG), while Osasuna have gone 25W 14D 28L in their last 67 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Almeria at home or Osasuna away?
Almeria's home record (1.24 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Almeria at home: 1.24 PPG; Osasuna away: 1.03 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since September 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 30 March 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Osasuna go into this on the back of 4 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Osasuna won 0-3 on 30 Mar 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Almeria have gone 0W 0D 2L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Osasuna — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Almeria
0
Draws
4
Osasuna
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Almeria and Osasuna?
From 4 meetings on record, Almeria have won 0, Osasuna have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Almeria and Osasuna last play each other?
They last met on 30 March 2024, when Almeria 0-3 Osasuna.
Who has won more matches between Almeria and Osasuna?
Osasuna have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Almeria are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Osasuna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Almeria 61%, Osasuna 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 61% (Almeria) and 33% (Osasuna).
On the defensive side: Almeria have failed to score in 30% of games; Osasuna in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Almeria home games / Osasuna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Almeria play Osasuna?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 61% of Almeria's recent matches and 48% of Osasuna's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Almeria vs Osasuna usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 61% of Almeria's recent games and 33% of Osasuna's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Almeria and Osasuna tend to score early?
Almeria have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Osasuna in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Osasuna run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Almeria.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Osasuna beat Almeria 0-3 at Power Horse Stadium, Regular Season - 30, in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Almeria 1.16 xG and Osasuna 1.21 xG, a combined 2.37. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Almeria fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Osasuna outscored their 1.21 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Almeria attack 0.83 / defence 1.24 against Osasuna attack 0.89 / defence 1.00, drawn from 67/67 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Almeria 34% | Draw 29% | Osasuna 36%, with Osasuna to win its most likely call at 36%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Almeria 61%, Osasuna 37%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Almeria's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Osasuna's trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Osasuna arrived the stronger side — 1.33 PPG against 0.81. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Almeria (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.30 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.42 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Osasuna (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.88 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.30 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.