Alaves 2-3 Valladolid – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Alaves at 66% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Alaves vs Valladolid encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Estadio de Mendizorroza plays host to Alaves versus Valladolid in La Liga (matchday 10). Kick-off: Friday 18 October 2024 at 21:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Alaves have collected 1.10 PPG across their last 10 games: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: L W L L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Alaves's home record over their last 10 home games: 6W 2D 2L (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Alaves are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Valladolid's record over their last 9 games: 1W 2D 6L (0.56 PPG). Last five: L D L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.56 per game is modest, conceding 2.11 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.11 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 3 clean sheets from 9 outings (33%).
When travelling, Valladolid have posted 0W 0D 4L from their last 4 away outings — 0.00 PPG. Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 3.75 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.00 is notably below their overall 0.56 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Form favours the hosts. Alaves's 1.10 PPG return is 0.54 points per game ahead of Valladolid's 0.56 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Trading Data
Alaves goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 9 games, 4 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in home games; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Valladolid goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 9 games, 4 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games (away games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Alaves 56% versus Valladolid 44%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Alaves 67% | Valladolid 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Alaves 2.07 xG and Valladolid 0.75 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Alaves attack 0.880 / defence 0.968 | Valladolid attack 0.757 / defence 1.647. League average goals — home 1.427 / away 1.027. Valladolid's defence rating of 1.647 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Alaves's projected output up. Valladolid's attack rating of 0.757 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.75. Data: built from Alaves's last 47 games and Valladolid's last 9.
Result probabilities: Alaves 66% | Draw 24% | Valladolid 10%. Fair-value odds: Alaves 1.52 | Draw 4.19 | Valladolid 9.69. The model has a clear lean to Alaves (66%) — a 42pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS Yes probability 48% | Total xG 2.82. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.82 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS No at 52% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Alaves as the most likely outcome at 66% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.82 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 54% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Alaves's last 10 home games and Valladolid's last 4 away games) averaging 3.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Alaves 20% (last 10 home games) | Valladolid 50% (last 4 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Alaves vs Valladolid | Competition: La Liga, matchday 10 | Venue: Estadio de Mendizorroza • Kick-off: Friday 18 October 2024 at 21:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Alaves 66% | Draw 24% | Valladolid 10% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% (Under 46%) | BTTS Yes 48% (No 52%) | xG Alaves 2.07 / Valladolid 0.75 • Poisson strength factors: Alaves attack 0.880 / def 0.968 | Valladolid attack 0.757 / def 1.647 | league avg home 1.427 / away 1.027 • Poisson stance: Alaves (66%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.07
Alaves xG
Expected Goals
0.75
Valladolid xG
48%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Alaves vs Valladolid FAQs
What time does Alaves vs Valladolid kick off?
Alaves vs Valladolid kicked off at 21:00 UK time on Friday 18 October 2024 at Estadio de Mendizorroza.
What was the final score in Alaves vs Valladolid?
Alaves 2 - 3 Valladolid.
Where is Alaves vs Valladolid being played?
The match is being played at Estadio de Mendizorroza.
What competition is Alaves vs Valladolid part of?
Alaves vs Valladolid is a La Liga fixture (matchday 10) (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Alaves vs Valladolid?
Our statistical model gives Alaves a 66% chance of winning, Valladolid a 10% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Alaves the favourite.
Will both teams score in Alaves vs Valladolid?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Alaves and Valladolid will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (52%).
Will Alaves vs Valladolid have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Alaves's attacking strength (0.88x league average) is weighed against Valladolid's defensive record (1.65x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.07. Flip it around — Valladolid's attack (0.76x) against Alaves's defence (0.97x) — and the away total comes out at 0.75.
These ratings are built from Alaves's last 47 games and Valladolid's last 9 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 12.7%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.1%), 1-1 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Alaves Win
66%
1.52
24%
4.19
10%
9.69
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
12.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
12.3%
Home win
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.07
Alaves xG
Total xG
2.82
0.75
Valladolid xG
1.52
66%
Home win
4.19
24%
Draw
9.69
10%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.07
52%
BTTS No
1.94
Clean Sheet
47%
2.12
13%
7.91
Win to Nil
31%
3.23
1%
76.64
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 12.3 | 9.3 | 3.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.7 | 9.6 | 3.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 8.8 | 6.6 | 2.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 4.5 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.9 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Alaves vs Valladolid Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Alaves vs Valladolid?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Alaves and Valladolid expected to score?
The model projects 2.07 expected goals for Alaves and 0.75 for Valladolid, a combined total of 2.82.
How confident is the prediction model for Alaves vs Valladolid?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 66%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 9 outings, Alaves have picked up 1.11 PPG on a 3W 1D 5L record — L-W-L-L-L across the most recent five.
Valladolid's form line: 1W 2D 6L from 9 games, 0.56 PPG, last five L-D-L-L-L.
Put side by side, Alaves are the form team by 0.55 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Valladolid.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Alaves have posted 1.75 PPG from their last 4 home games (2W 1D 1L). That's noticeably better than their 1.11 PPG overall — Alaves are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Valladolid have gone 0W 0D 4L from their last 4 away games — 0.00 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 0.56 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Valladolid's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Alaves come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Alaves are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game recently; Valladolid are on 0.56 scored and 2.11 conceded.
Last 9 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Alaves
Blended
Valladolid
Blended
Alaves (Home) vs Valladolid (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Alaves
Blended
Valladolid
Blended
❓ Alaves vs Valladolid Form FAQs
What form are Alaves and Valladolid in coming into this match?
Alaves have gone 3W 1D 5L in their last 9 games (1.11 PPG), while Valladolid have gone 1W 2D 6L in their last 9 (0.56 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Alaves at home or Valladolid away?
Alaves's home record (1.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Alaves at home: 1.75 PPG; Valladolid away: 0.00 PPG.
Have Alaves or Valladolid been keeping clean sheets recently?
Alaves have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, Valladolid in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 2 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to October 2024 — a small sample, so read the trends with care. All of them came in La Liga. The most recent in our data was on 18 May 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Alaves
0
Draws
1
Valladolid
Recent Meetings
❓ Alaves vs Valladolid H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Alaves and Valladolid?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, Alaves have won 1, Valladolid have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Alaves and Valladolid last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 18 May 2025: Valladolid 0-1 Alaves.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Alaves are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Valladolid are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Alaves 25%, Valladolid 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 50% for Alaves and 100% for Valladolid. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 0% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Alaves keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Alaves have failed to score in 50% of games; Valladolid in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Alaves home games / Valladolid away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Alaves vs Valladolid Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Alaves and Valladolid matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 25% of Alaves's recent matches and 50% of Valladolid's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Alaves and Valladolid matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Alaves's matches and 100% of Valladolid's.
Do Alaves and Valladolid matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 75% of Alaves's recent matches and 75% of Valladolid's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Valladolid defy the odds to beat Alaves 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Valladolid beat Alaves 2-3 at Estadio de Mendizorroza, Regular Season - 10, in the La Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Alaves 2.07 xG and Valladolid 0.75 xG, a combined 2.82. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Valladolid outscored their 0.75 projection by 2.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Alaves attack 0.88 / defence 0.97 against Valladolid attack 0.76 / defence 1.65, drawn from 47/9 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Alaves 66% | Draw 24% | Valladolid 10%, with Alaves to win its most likely call at 66%. Instead the game produced a Valladolid win, an outcome the model had rated at just 10% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Alaves 67%, Valladolid 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Alaves's trading profile (9 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Valladolid's trading profile (9 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Alaves arrived the stronger side — 1.11 PPG against 0.56. Form was overturned, with Valladolid winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Alaves (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Valladolid (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.50 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 2 against a 3.75 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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