Alaves 1-4 Real Madrid – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 46% as Alaves take on Real Madrid.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a La Liga clash, Regular Season - 1 as Alaves welcome Real Madrid to Estadio de Mendizorroza. Kick-off is set for Saturday 14 August 2021 at 21:00 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Alaves 0.71 xG and Real Madrid 0.67 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Alaves attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | Real Madrid attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 0.722 / away 0.680. Data: 0 Alaves games / 0 Real Madrid games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Alaves 28% | Draw 46% | Real Madrid 26%. Fair-value odds: Alaves 3.57 | Draw 2.17 | Real Madrid 3.85. The draw (46%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 16% | BTTS probability 28% | Total xG 1.37. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 84% probability — total xG of 1.37 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 72% — Real Madrid's lower xG of 0.67 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 28%.
Our Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 46% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 28% and away win at 26% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 1.37 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 16% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Alaves vs Real Madrid | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Estadio de Mendizorroza • Kick-off: Saturday 14 Aug 2021, 21:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Alaves 28% | Draw 46% | Real Madrid 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 16% | BTTS 28% | xG Alaves 0.71 / Real Madrid 0.67 • Poisson strength factors: Alaves attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | Real Madrid attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 0.722 / away 0.680 • Poisson stance: Draw (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.71
Alaves xG
Expected Goals
0.67
Real Madrid xG
28%
BTTS
43%
Over 1.5
16%
Over 2.5
5%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Alaves vs Real Madrid kick off?
Alaves vs Real Madrid kicked off at 21:00 on Saturday 14 August 2021 at Estadio de Mendizorroza.
What was the final score in Alaves vs Real Madrid?
Alaves 1 - 4 Real Madrid.
Where is Alaves vs Real Madrid being played?
The match is being played at Estadio de Mendizorroza.
What competition is Alaves vs Real Madrid part of?
Alaves vs Real Madrid is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Alaves vs Real Madrid?
Our statistical model gives Alaves a 28% chance of winning, Real Madrid a 26% chance, and a 46% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Alaves vs Real Madrid?
Our model estimates a 28% probability that both Alaves and Real Madrid will score (BTTS).
Will Alaves vs Real Madrid have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 16%.
What is the head-to-head record between Alaves and Real Madrid?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Alaves and Real Madrid in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Alaves's attacking strength (0.85x league average) is weighed against Real Madrid's defensive record (1.15x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.71. The same calculation in reverse, Real Madrid's attack versus Alaves's defence, projects 0.67 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 0/0 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 26.9%. Close behind: 1-0 (16.4%), 0-1 (15.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 59% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
28%
3.53
46%
2.18
26%
3.88
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
25.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
17.9%
Home win
0 – 1
16.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.71
Alaves xG
Total xG
1.37
0.67
Real Madrid xG
3.53
28%
Home win
2.18
46%
Draw
3.88
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
40%
Over 1.5
2.50
60%
Under 1.5
1.67
16%
Over 2.5
6.25
84%
Under 2.5
1.19
5%
Over 3.5
20.00
95%
Under 3.5
1.05
1%
Over 4.5
100.00
99%
Under 4.5
1.01
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
28%
BTTS Yes
3.55
72%
BTTS No
1.39
Clean Sheet
51%
1.94
49%
2.03
Win to Nil
15%
6.87
13%
7.86
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 25.4 | 16.9 | 5.6 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 17.9 | 11.9 | 4.0 | 0.9 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 6.3 | 4.2 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Alaves vs Real Madrid?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 26.9%.
How many goals are Alaves and Real Madrid expected to score?
The model projects 0.71 expected goals for Alaves and 0.67 for Real Madrid, a combined total of 1.37.
How confident is the prediction model for Alaves vs Real Madrid?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Alaves
Pre-Season
Real Madrid
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. They last met on 21 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Real Madrid have taken the last 8 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 14 May 2024, when Real Madrid won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Alaves's record when hosting Real Madrid specifically: 0W 0D 4L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
0
Alaves
0
Draws
8
Real Madrid
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Alaves and Real Madrid?
From 8 meetings on record, Alaves have won 0, Real Madrid have won 8, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Alaves and Real Madrid last play each other?
They last met on 21 April 2026, when Real Madrid 2-1 Alaves.
Who has won more matches between Alaves and Real Madrid?
Real Madrid have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 8 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Alaves home games / Real Madrid away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Dominant Real Madrid run riot with a 1-4 hammering of Alaves.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Real Madrid beat Alaves 1-4 at Estadio de Mendizorroza, Regular Season - 1, in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Alaves 0.71 xG and Real Madrid 0.67 xG, a combined 1.37. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. Real Madrid outscored their 0.67 projection by 3.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Alaves attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against Real Madrid attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 0/0 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Alaves 28% | Draw 46% | Real Madrid 26%, with the draw its most likely call at 46%. The actual Real Madrid win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 16%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 43% and landed. Over 3.5 was 5% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 28% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.