Alaves 0-1 Mallorca – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Mallorca at 41% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Alaves vs Mallorca encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Alaves and Mallorca meet at Estadio de Mendizorroza in La Liga, Regular Season - 2. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 21 August 2021 at 16:00 UTC.
Form
Alaves (all games): 0W 0D 1L across 1 La Liga fixtures this term — 0.00 PPG. Last five: L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 4.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 4.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Alaves have played only a handful of La Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Mallorca's overall La Liga record this term: 0W 1D 0L from 1 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Mallorca have played only a handful of La Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Mallorca arrive in superior form — a 1.00 PPG advantage (1.00 vs 0.00) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using overall form) — Alaves register both teams scoring in 100% of relevant games, Mallorca in 100%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Alaves 0.95 xG and Mallorca 1.30 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Alaves attack 0.991 / defence 1.542 | Mallorca attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 0.834 / away 0.995. Data: 1 Alaves games / 1 Mallorca games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Alaves 23% | Draw 36% | Mallorca 41%. Fair-value odds: Alaves 4.35 | Draw 2.78 | Mallorca 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 36% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.25. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.25 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Mallorca are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 36% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Mallorca if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.25 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 39% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 3.5 goals per game points in the other direction.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Alaves vs Mallorca | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Estadio de Mendizorroza • Kick-off: Saturday 21 Aug 2021, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Alaves 23% | Draw 36% | Mallorca 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 49% | xG Alaves 0.95 / Mallorca 1.30 • Poisson strength factors: Alaves attack 0.991 / def 1.542 | Mallorca attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 0.834 / away 0.995 • Poisson stance: Mallorca (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.95
Alaves xG
Expected Goals
1.30
Mallorca xG
49%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Alaves vs Mallorca kick off?
Alaves vs Mallorca kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 21 August 2021 at Estadio de Mendizorroza.
What was the final score in Alaves vs Mallorca?
Alaves 0 - 1 Mallorca.
Where is Alaves vs Mallorca being played?
The match is being played at Estadio de Mendizorroza.
What competition is Alaves vs Mallorca part of?
Alaves vs Mallorca is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Alaves vs Mallorca?
Our statistical model gives Alaves a 23% chance of winning, Mallorca a 41% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw — making Mallorca the favourite.
Will both teams score in Alaves vs Mallorca?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Alaves and Mallorca will score (BTTS).
Will Alaves vs Mallorca have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Alaves and Mallorca?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Alaves and Mallorca in?
Alaves (all comps): 0W-0D-1L in 1 | 0.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 4.00 | L5 L. Mallorca (all comps): 0W-1D-0L in 1 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Alaves's attack rating (0.99) and Mallorca's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 0.95 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Mallorca's attack (0.85x) against Alaves's defence (1.54x) — and the away total comes out at 1.30.
The sample (1/1 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.2%), 0-1 (12.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Mallorca Win
23%
4.30
36%
2.78
41%
2.45
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.7%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
0 – 0
10.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.95
Alaves xG
Total xG
2.25
1.30
Mallorca xG
4.30
23%
Home win
2.78
36%
Draw
2.45
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.06
51%
BTTS No
1.94
Clean Sheet
27%
3.68
39%
2.59
Win to Nil
6%
15.85
16%
6.33
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.5 | 13.7 | 8.9 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.0 | 13.0 | 8.5 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 4.7 | 6.2 | 4.0 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.0 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Alaves vs Mallorca?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Alaves and Mallorca expected to score?
The model projects 0.95 expected goals for Alaves and 1.30 for Mallorca, a combined total of 2.25.
How confident is the prediction model for Alaves vs Mallorca?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Alaves's recent record stands at 0W 0D 1L from 1 games, a 0.00 PPG return, with L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Alaves, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Mallorca, meanwhile, have gone 0W 1D 0L across 1 games — 1.00 PPG, with D in their last five. It's still early in the season for Mallorca, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Mallorca by 1.00 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Alaves heading into this one.
Attack vs Defence
Alaves are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 4.00 conceded per game recently; Mallorca are on 1.00 scored and 1.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Alaves have seen both teams score in 100% of their recent games; Mallorca in 100%.
Last 1 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Alaves
Early Season
Mallorca
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Alaves and Mallorca in coming into this match?
Alaves have gone 0W 0D 1L in their last 1 games (0.00 PPG), while Mallorca have gone 0W 1D 0L in their last 1 (1.00 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. They last met on 25 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Alaves have gone 2W 1D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Mallorca — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Alaves
3
Draws
3
Mallorca
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Alaves and Mallorca?
From 8 meetings on record, Alaves have won 2, Mallorca have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Alaves and Mallorca last play each other?
They last met on 25 April 2026, when Alaves 2-1 Mallorca.
Who has won more matches between Alaves and Mallorca?
Mallorca have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Alaves home games / Mallorca away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Alaves play Mallorca?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 100% of Alaves's games and 100% of Mallorca's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Alaves vs Mallorca usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 100% of Alaves's recent games and 0% of Mallorca's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Alaves and Mallorca tend to score early?
Alaves have had a goal before half-time in 0% of their recent matches, Mallorca in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Mallorca edge out Alaves 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Mallorca beat Alaves 0-1 at Estadio de Mendizorroza, Regular Season - 2, in the La Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Alaves 0.95 xG and Mallorca 1.30 xG, a combined 2.25. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Alaves fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Alaves attack 0.99 / defence 1.54 against Mallorca attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 1/1 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Alaves 23% | Draw 36% | Mallorca 41%, with Mallorca to win its most likely call at 41%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 70% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Alaves 100%, Mallorca 0%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 100%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Mallorca arrived the stronger side — 1.00 PPG against 0.00. That form edge translated into the three points. Alaves managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 4.00 average — tighter than their form line. Mallorca conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.