Alaves vs Deportivo La Coruna – Pre-Match Analysis

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Poisson model rates Alaves at 55%, yet other data sources diverge — this Alaves vs Deportivo La Coruna fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Pre-Match Analysis

Alaves and Deportivo La Coruna meet at Estadio Mendizorrotza in La Liga, Regular Season - 13. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 22 November 2026 at 16:00 UTC.

Form & Momentum

Alaves have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 La Liga outings this season: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: W L W D W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Alaves have played only a handful of La Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.

Alaves at Estadio Mendizorrotza this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Deportivo La Coruna's overall La Liga record this term: 2W 2D 0L from 4 games (2.00 PPG). Last five: D D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Deportivo La Coruna have played only a handful of La Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.

Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.70 vs 2.00 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.

In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using overall form) — Alaves have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Deportivo La Coruna in 100%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.

Trading

Alaves half-time and goal-timing data (4 games): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures; they lead at the break 50% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 25% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.

Deportivo La Coruna half-time and goal-timing data (4 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; they lead at the break 50% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 25% of the time; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games; Over 3.5 in 50%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Alaves 50% and Deportivo La Coruna 100% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Alaves 50% | Deportivo La Coruna 50%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Alaves 1.78 xG and Deportivo La Coruna 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Alaves attack 1.034 / defence 0.854 | Deportivo La Coruna attack 1.079 / defence 1.060. League average goals — home 1.628 / away 1.142. Data: 41 Alaves games / 4 Deportivo La Coruna games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Alaves 55% | Draw 23% | Deportivo La Coruna 22%. Fair-value odds: Alaves 1.82 | Draw 4.35 | Deportivo La Coruna 4.55. The model has a clear lean to Alaves (55%) — a 33pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.84. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.84 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Alaves as the most likely outcome at 55% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

Poisson projects 2.84 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 54% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Alaves 60% | Deportivo La Coruna 100% BTTS from recent games.

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