Alaves 1-1 Celta Vigo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Alaves at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Alaves vs Celta Vigo fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Alaves and Celta Vigo meet at Estadio de Mendizorroza in La Liga, Regular Season - 21. This fixture gets under way on Monday 27 January 2025 at 20:00 UTC.
Current Form
Alaves's overall La Liga record this term: 2W 4D 4L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: D D D L W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Alaves, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Estadio de Mendizorroza, Alaves have gone 4W 3D 3L this season (10 games, 1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Alaves are significantly better at Estadio de Mendizorroza than their overall form suggests.
Celta Vigo have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 La Liga outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: W L W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Celta Vigo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Celta Vigo's away record: 2W 1D 7L from 10 road trips in La Liga this season (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.00 vs 1.10 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 5 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Alaves, 3 for Celta Vigo and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 5 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 16 Aug 2024, ended 1–2 with Celta Vigo winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Alaves goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (58 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Celta Vigo goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (58 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Alaves 45% versus Celta Vigo 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Alaves 40% | Celta Vigo 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Alaves 1.48 xG and Celta Vigo 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Alaves attack 0.799 / defence 0.978 | Celta Vigo attack 0.909 / defence 1.311. League average goals — home 1.413 / away 1.171. Alaves's attack strength of 0.799 is below the league average — the 1.48 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Celta Vigo bring a strong defensive rating of 1.311 — this is suppressing Alaves's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 58 Alaves games / 58 Celta Vigo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Alaves 47% | Draw 26% | Celta Vigo 27%. Fair-value odds: Alaves 2.13 | Draw 3.85 | Celta Vigo 3.70. Alaves hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.52. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.52 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Alaves at 47% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Alaves if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.52 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 46% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on No. Form rates are neutral: Alaves 40% | Celta Vigo 70%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Alaves vs Celta Vigo | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Estadio de Mendizorroza • Kick-off: Monday 27 Jan 2025, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Alaves 47% | Draw 26% | Celta Vigo 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 50% | xG Alaves 1.48 / Celta Vigo 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: Alaves attack 0.799 / def 0.978 | Celta Vigo attack 0.909 / def 1.311 | league avg home 1.413 / away 1.171 • Poisson stance: Alaves (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.48
Alaves xG
Expected Goals
1.04
Celta Vigo xG
50%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Alaves vs Celta Vigo kick off?
Alaves vs Celta Vigo kicked off at 20:00 on Monday 27 January 2025 at Estadio de Mendizorroza.
What was the final score in Alaves vs Celta Vigo?
Alaves 1 - 1 Celta Vigo.
Where is Alaves vs Celta Vigo being played?
The match is being played at Estadio de Mendizorroza.
What competition is Alaves vs Celta Vigo part of?
Alaves vs Celta Vigo is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Alaves vs Celta Vigo?
Our statistical model gives Alaves a 47% chance of winning, Celta Vigo a 27% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Alaves the favourite.
Will both teams score in Alaves vs Celta Vigo?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Alaves and Celta Vigo will score (BTTS).
Will Alaves vs Celta Vigo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Alaves and Celta Vigo?
Record (5 meetings): Alaves 1W | Draws 1 | Celta Vigo 3W.
What form are Alaves and Celta Vigo in?
Alaves (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-D-D-L-W. Celta Vigo (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Alaves's attack rating (0.80) and Celta Vigo's defence rating (1.31), the model arrives at 1.48 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Celta Vigo's attack (0.91x) against Alaves's defence (0.98x) — and the away total comes out at 1.04.
These ratings are built from 58/58 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.0%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.3%), 0-0 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Alaves Win
47%
2.12
26%
3.83
27%
3.76
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.9%
Home win
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.48
Alaves xG
Total xG
2.52
1.04
Celta Vigo xG
2.12
47%
Home win
3.83
26%
Draw
3.76
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.00
50%
BTTS No
2.00
Clean Sheet
35%
2.83
23%
4.39
Win to Nil
17%
5.99
6%
16.50
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.0 | 8.4 | 4.4 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.9 | 12.4 | 6.4 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.8 | 9.2 | 4.8 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 4.5 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Alaves vs Celta Vigo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Alaves and Celta Vigo expected to score?
The model projects 1.48 expected goals for Alaves and 1.04 for Celta Vigo, a combined total of 2.52.
How confident is the prediction model for Alaves vs Celta Vigo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Alaves's recent record stands at 17W 15D 26L from 58 games, a 1.14 PPG return, with D-D-D-L-W in the last five. The sample for Alaves is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Celta Vigo, meanwhile, have gone 17W 14D 27L across 58 games — 1.12 PPG, with W-L-W-L-L in their last five. The sample for Celta Vigo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.14 PPG for Alaves against 1.12 for Celta Vigo. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Alaves have managed 12W 7D 9L from 28 games — 1.54 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.14 PPG overall — Alaves are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Celta Vigo's away record stands at 5W 6D 17L across 28 trips, a 0.75 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Alaves come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Alaves are averaging 1.03 goals scored and 1.34 conceded per game recently; Celta Vigo are on 1.29 scored and 1.53 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Celta Vigo in 60%.
Last 58 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Alaves
Blended
Celta Vigo
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Alaves and Celta Vigo in coming into this match?
Alaves have gone 17W 15D 26L in their last 58 games (1.14 PPG), while Celta Vigo have gone 17W 14D 27L in their last 58 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Alaves at home or Celta Vigo away?
Alaves's home record (1.54 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Alaves at home: 1.54 PPG; Celta Vigo away: 0.75 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. They last met on 22 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Celta Vigo won 4-0 on 7 May 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Alaves have gone 1W 1D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Celta Vigo — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Alaves
2
Draws
4
Celta Vigo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Alaves and Celta Vigo?
From 8 meetings on record, Alaves have won 2, Celta Vigo have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Alaves and Celta Vigo last play each other?
They last met on 22 March 2026, when Celta Vigo 3-4 Alaves.
Who has won more matches between Alaves and Celta Vigo?
Celta Vigo have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Alaves are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Celta Vigo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Alaves 39%, Celta Vigo 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 29% (Alaves) and 71% (Celta Vigo).
On the defensive side: Alaves keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Alaves have failed to score in 29% of games; Celta Vigo in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Alaves home games / Celta Vigo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Alaves play Celta Vigo?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 39% of Alaves's recent matches and 64% of Celta Vigo's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Alaves vs Celta Vigo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 29% of Alaves's recent games and 71% of Celta Vigo's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Alaves and Celta Vigo tend to score early?
Alaves have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Celta Vigo in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Alaves and Celta Vigo share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Estadio de Mendizorroza, Regular Season - 21, as Alaves and Celta Vigo drew 1-1 in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Alaves 1.48 xG and Celta Vigo 1.04 xG, a combined 2.52. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Alaves attack 0.80 / defence 0.98 against Celta Vigo attack 0.91 / defence 1.31, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Alaves 47% | Draw 26% | Celta Vigo 27%, with Alaves to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Alaves 40%, Celta Vigo 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Alaves's trading profile (58 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did.
Celta Vigo's trading profile (58 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Alaves 1.14 PPG, Celta Vigo 1.12 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Celta Vigo (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.96 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.