Alaves 1-0 Almeria – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Alaves at 45% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Alaves vs Almeria encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Alaves welcome Almeria to Estadio de Mendizorroza in La Liga (matchday 12). Kick-off is Sunday 5 November 2023 at 13:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Alaves have gone 2W 3D 5L — a 0.90 PPG return. Last five: D L D D L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
Alaves at home: 2W 1D 2L from their last 5 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Almeria stand at 0W 3D 7L — 0.30 PPG. Last five: L D L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 2.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.90 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
Almeria's away record over their last 10 away games: 1W 2D 7L (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On current form, Alaves have the edge — a 0.60 PPG advantage (0.90 vs 0.30) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
In-Play Data
Alaves trading profile (last 11 games, 5 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 100% of their matches in home games; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games (home games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
Almeria trading profile (last 11 games, 5 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 80% of their matches in away games; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 54%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Alaves 46% and Almeria 82% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Alaves 18% | Almeria 82%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Alaves 1.76 xG and Almeria 1.41 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Alaves attack 0.749 / defence 1.233 | Almeria attack 0.932 / defence 1.549. League average goals — home 1.519 / away 1.231. Alaves's attack rating of 0.749 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.76. Almeria's defence rating of 1.549 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Alaves's projected output up. Alaves's defence rating of 1.233 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Almeria's projected output up. Data: built from Alaves's last 11 games and Almeria's last 49.
Result probabilities: Alaves 45% | Draw 24% | Almeria 30%. Fair-value odds: Alaves 2.21 | Draw 4.13 | Almeria 3.28. Alaves hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS Yes probability 63% | Total xG 3.18. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.18 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% — both xG figures (1.76 / 1.41) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Alaves at 45% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Alaves offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.18 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 61% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Alaves's last 5 home games and Almeria's last 10 away games) averaging 3.4 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 63%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Alaves 40% (last 5 home games) | Almeria 80% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Alaves vs Almeria | Competition: La Liga, matchday 12 | Venue: Estadio de Mendizorroza • Kick-off: Sunday 5 November 2023 at 13:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Alaves 45% | Draw 24% | Almeria 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% (Under 39%) | BTTS Yes 63% (No 37%) | xG Alaves 1.76 / Almeria 1.41 • Poisson strength factors: Alaves attack 0.749 / def 1.233 | Almeria attack 0.932 / def 1.549 | league avg home 1.519 / away 1.231 • Poisson stance: Alaves (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.76
Alaves xG
Expected Goals
1.41
Almeria xG
63%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Alaves vs Almeria FAQs
What time does Alaves vs Almeria kick off?
Alaves vs Almeria kicked off at 13:00 UK time on Sunday 5 November 2023 at Estadio de Mendizorroza.
What was the final score in Alaves vs Almeria?
Alaves 1 - 0 Almeria.
Where is Alaves vs Almeria being played?
The match is being played at Estadio de Mendizorroza.
What competition is Alaves vs Almeria part of?
Alaves vs Almeria is a La Liga fixture (matchday 12) (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Alaves vs Almeria?
Our statistical model gives Alaves a 45% chance of winning, Almeria a 30% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Alaves the favourite.
Will both teams score in Alaves vs Almeria?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Alaves and Almeria will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Alaves vs Almeria have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Alaves's attacking strength (0.75x league average) is weighed against Almeria's defensive record (1.55x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.76. The same calculation in reverse, Almeria's attack versus Alaves's defence, projects 1.41 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Alaves's last 11 games and Almeria's last 49 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 1-2 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Alaves Win
45%
2.21
24%
4.13
30%
3.28
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.4%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
1 – 0
7.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.76
Alaves xG
Total xG
3.18
1.41
Almeria xG
2.21
45%
Home win
4.13
24%
Draw
3.28
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.58
37%
BTTS No
2.72
Clean Sheet
24%
4.11
17%
5.82
Win to Nil
11%
9.07
5%
19.11
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.2 | 5.9 | 4.2 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.4 | 10.4 | 7.4 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 9.2 | 6.5 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 5.4 | 3.8 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.4 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Alaves vs Almeria Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Alaves vs Almeria?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.8%.
How many goals are Alaves and Almeria expected to score?
The model projects 1.76 expected goals for Alaves and 1.41 for Almeria, a combined total of 3.18.
How confident is the prediction model for Alaves vs Almeria?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 11 outings, Alaves have picked up 0.82 PPG on a 2W 3D 6L record — D-L-D-D-L across the most recent five.
Almeria's form line: 0W 3D 8L from 11 games, 0.27 PPG, last five L-D-L-L-L.
Put side by side, Alaves are the form team by 0.55 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Almeria.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Alaves have posted 1.40 PPG from their last 5 home games (2W 1D 2L). That's noticeably better than their 0.82 PPG overall — Alaves are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Almeria have gone 0W 1D 4L from their last 5 away games — 0.20 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Alaves come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Alaves are averaging 0.82 goals scored and 1.45 conceded per game recently; Almeria are on 1.27 scored and 2.82 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Almeria in 82%.
Last 11 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Alaves
Blended
Almeria
Blended
Alaves (Home) vs Almeria (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Alaves
Blended
Almeria
Blended
❓ Alaves vs Almeria Form FAQs
What form are Alaves and Almeria in coming into this match?
Alaves have gone 2W 3D 6L in their last 11 games (0.82 PPG), while Almeria have gone 0W 3D 8L in their last 11 (0.27 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Alaves at home or Almeria away?
Alaves's home record (1.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Alaves at home: 1.40 PPG; Almeria away: 0.20 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 2 H2H matches in our data, going back to November 2023. All of them came in La Liga. The most recent in our data was on 26 January 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Alaves
0
Draws
0
Almeria
Recent Meetings
❓ Alaves vs Almeria H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Alaves and Almeria?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, Alaves have won 2, Almeria have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Alaves and Almeria last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 26 January 2024: Almeria 0-3 Alaves.
Who has won more matches between Alaves and Almeria?
Alaves have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 2 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Alaves are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches.
Almeria are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Alaves 40%, Almeria 80% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 20% (Alaves) and 80% (Almeria).
On the defensive side: Alaves have failed to score in 40% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Alaves home games / Almeria away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Alaves vs Almeria Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Alaves and Almeria matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 40% of Alaves's games and 80% of Almeria's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Alaves and Almeria matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 20% of Alaves's recent games and 80% of Almeria's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Alaves and Almeria matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 100% of Alaves's recent matches and 80% of Almeria's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Alaves edge out Almeria 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Alaves beat Almeria 1-0 at Estadio de Mendizorroza, Regular Season - 12, in the La Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Alaves 1.76 xG and Almeria 1.41 xG, a combined 3.18. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Almeria landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Alaves attack 0.75 / defence 1.23 against Almeria attack 0.93 / defence 1.55, drawn from 11/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Alaves 45% | Draw 24% | Almeria 30%, with Alaves to win its most likely call at 45%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 83% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Alaves 18%, Almeria 82%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Alaves's trading profile (11 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not.
Almeria's trading profile (11 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 82% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Alaves arrived the stronger side — 0.82 PPG against 0.27. That form edge translated into the three points. Alaves (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.60 average — tighter than their form line. Almeria (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 3.20 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
Related fixtures
More La Liga fixtures — matchday 12
All La Liga fixtures →
More Spanish football predictions →