Ulsan Hyundai FC 1-0 Suwon Bluewings – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Ulsan Hyundai FC at 54%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Suwon Bluewings fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Pre-Match Analysis

Ulsan Hyundai FC and Suwon Bluewings meet at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium in K League 1, Regular Season - 30. This fixture gets under way on Wednesday 7 September 2022 at 11:30 UTC.

Form

Ulsan Hyundai FC (all games): 5W 4D 1L across 10 K League 1 fixtures this term — 1.90 PPG. Last five: D W W D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.

Ulsan Hyundai FC's home record at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium: 6W 3D 1L from 10 K League 1 appearances (2.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Suwon Bluewings's overall K League 1 record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: L W W L W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.50. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.

On the road, Suwon Bluewings have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

Form favours the hosts. Ulsan Hyundai FC's 1.90 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of Suwon Bluewings's 1.40 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.

The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Ulsan Hyundai FC register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Suwon Bluewings in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.

H2H Analysis

Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 6 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for Ulsan Hyundai FC, 2 for Suwon Bluewings and 2 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.

The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 16 Jul 2022, ended 2–1 with Ulsan Hyundai FC winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Trading Data

Ulsan Hyundai FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (67 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games).

Suwon Bluewings goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (67 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ulsan Hyundai FC 60% versus Suwon Bluewings 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ulsan Hyundai FC 57% | Suwon Bluewings 48%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.77 xG and Suwon Bluewings 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.134 / defence 0.835 | Suwon Bluewings attack 1.036 / defence 1.104. League average goals — home 1.417 / away 1.213. Data: 62 Ulsan Hyundai FC games / 62 Suwon Bluewings games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Ulsan Hyundai FC 54% | Draw 23% | Suwon Bluewings 22%. Fair-value odds: Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.85 | Draw 4.35 | Suwon Bluewings 4.55. Ulsan Hyundai FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.82. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.82 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Ulsan Hyundai FC as the most likely outcome at 54% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Ulsan Hyundai FC if the outright odds are short.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.82 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates corroborate: Ulsan Hyundai FC 70% | Suwon Bluewings 70% BTTS from recent games.

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