Ulsan Hyundai FC 3-1 Jeju United FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ulsan Hyundai FC at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Jeju United FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium plays host to Ulsan Hyundai FC versus Jeju United FC in K League 1, Championship Round - 3. Kick-off: Sunday 21 November 2021 at 07:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Ulsan Hyundai FC have collected 1.90 PPG across 10 K League 1 outings this season: 6W 1D 3L. Last five: W W L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium, Ulsan Hyundai FC have gone 7W 2D 1L this season (10 games, 2.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Jeju United FC (all games): 6W 3D 1L across 10 K League 1 outings this term — 2.10 points per game. Last five: W D D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Jeju United FC's away record: 4W 5D 1L from 10 road trips in K League 1 this season (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.90 for Ulsan Hyundai FC, 2.10 for Jeju United FC — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Trading
Ulsan Hyundai FC half-time and goal-timing data (35 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games).
Jeju United FC half-time and goal-timing data (35 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Ulsan Hyundai FC 60% and Jeju United FC 63% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ulsan Hyundai FC 63% | Jeju United FC 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.36 xG and Jeju United FC 1.31 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.214 / defence 1.101 | Jeju United FC attack 0.943 / defence 1.200. League average goals — home 0.937 / away 1.264. Data: 33 Ulsan Hyundai FC games / 33 Jeju United FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ulsan Hyundai FC 38% | Draw 26% | Jeju United FC 36%. Fair-value odds: Ulsan Hyundai FC 2.63 | Draw 3.85 | Jeju United FC 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.68. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.68 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Ulsan Hyundai FC at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Ulsan Hyundai FC if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.68 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 50% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Ulsan Hyundai FC 70% | Jeju United FC 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Jeju United FC | Competition: K League 1, Championship Round - 3 | Venue: Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 21 Nov 2021, 07:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ulsan Hyundai FC 38% | Draw 26% | Jeju United FC 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 54% | xG Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.36 / Jeju United FC 1.31 • Poisson strength factors: Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.214 / def 1.101 | Jeju United FC attack 0.943 / def 1.200 | league avg home 0.937 / away 1.264 • Poisson stance: Ulsan Hyundai FC (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.36
Ulsan Hyundai FC xG
Expected Goals
1.31
Jeju United FC xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Jeju United FC kick off?
Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Jeju United FC kicked off at 07:30 on Sunday 21 November 2021 at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium.
What was the final score in Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Jeju United FC?
Ulsan Hyundai FC 3 - 1 Jeju United FC.
Where is Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Jeju United FC being played?
The match is being played at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium.
What competition is Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Jeju United FC part of?
Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Jeju United FC is a Championship Round - 3 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Jeju United FC?
Our statistical model gives Ulsan Hyundai FC a 38% chance of winning, Jeju United FC a 36% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Ulsan Hyundai FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Jeju United FC?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Ulsan Hyundai FC and Jeju United FC will score (BTTS).
Will Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Jeju United FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ulsan Hyundai FC and Jeju United FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Ulsan Hyundai FC and Jeju United FC in?
Ulsan Hyundai FC (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-L-W-L. Jeju United FC (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Ulsan Hyundai FC's attack at 1.21x the league average against Jeju United FC's defence at 1.20x — combine the two and it projects 1.36 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Jeju United FC's attack (0.94x) against Ulsan Hyundai FC's defence (1.10x) — and the away total comes out at 1.31.
These ratings are built from 33/33 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (8.5%), 2-1 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ulsan Hyundai FC Win
38%
2.62
26%
3.86
36%
2.79
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.4%
Home win
0 – 1
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.36
Ulsan Hyundai FC xG
Total xG
2.68
1.31
Jeju United FC xG
2.62
38%
Home win
3.86
26%
Draw
2.79
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.84
46%
BTTS No
2.19
Clean Sheet
27%
3.72
26%
3.92
Win to Nil
10%
9.72
9%
10.93
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 9.0 | 5.9 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.4 | 12.3 | 8.1 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 8.4 | 5.5 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 3.8 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Jeju United FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Ulsan Hyundai FC and Jeju United FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.36 expected goals for Ulsan Hyundai FC and 1.31 for Jeju United FC, a combined total of 2.68.
How confident is the prediction model for Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Jeju United FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Ulsan Hyundai FC come into this having played 35 games, going 19W 10D 6L for 1.91 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-W-L.
On the other side, Jeju United FC sit at 1.40 PPG from 35 outings (11W 16D 8L), a run that reads W-D-D-W-W across their last five.
Ulsan Hyundai FC carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.51 PPG clear of Jeju United FC — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Ulsan Hyundai FC's home form reads 11W 5D 1L across 17 games on their own ground, a 2.24 PPG return.
Away from home, Jeju United FC have taken 1.41 points per game from 17 outings (5W 9D 3L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ulsan Hyundai FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Ulsan Hyundai FC are averaging 1.69 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game recently; Jeju United FC are on 1.37 scored and 1.14 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Ulsan Hyundai FC have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games; Jeju United FC in 63%.
Defensively: Ulsan Hyundai FC have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 35 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ulsan Hyundai FC
Current Season
Jeju United FC
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ulsan Hyundai FC and Jeju United FC in coming into this match?
Ulsan Hyundai FC have gone 19W 10D 6L in their last 35 games (1.91 PPG), while Jeju United FC have gone 11W 16D 8L in their last 35 (1.40 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ulsan Hyundai FC at home or Jeju United FC away?
Ulsan Hyundai FC's home record (2.24 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ulsan Hyundai FC at home: 2.24 PPG; Jeju United FC away: 1.41 PPG.
Have Ulsan Hyundai FC or Jeju United FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ulsan Hyundai FC have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Jeju United FC in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. They last met on 13 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Ulsan Hyundai FC go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Ulsan Hyundai FC have gone 5W 0D 1L from 6 meetings on their own ground against Jeju United FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
8
Ulsan Hyundai FC
0
Draws
2
Jeju United FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ulsan Hyundai FC and Jeju United FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Ulsan Hyundai FC have won 8, Jeju United FC have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Ulsan Hyundai FC and Jeju United FC last play each other?
They last met on 13 May 2026, when Ulsan Hyundai FC 2-1 Jeju United FC.
Who has won more matches between Ulsan Hyundai FC and Jeju United FC?
Ulsan Hyundai FC have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Ulsan Hyundai FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Jeju United FC see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ulsan Hyundai FC 59%, Jeju United FC 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (Ulsan Hyundai FC) and 47% (Jeju United FC).
On the defensive side: Ulsan Hyundai FC keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches; Jeju United FC in 41%; Jeju United FC in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ulsan Hyundai FC home games / Jeju United FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ulsan Hyundai FC play Jeju United FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of Ulsan Hyundai FC's games and 53% of Jeju United FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Jeju United FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 59% of Ulsan Hyundai FC's recent games and 47% of Jeju United FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ulsan Hyundai FC and Jeju United FC tend to score early?
Ulsan Hyundai FC have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Jeju United FC in 59% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Ulsan Hyundai FC cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Jeju United FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ulsan Hyundai FC beat Jeju United FC 3-1 at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium, Championship Round - 3, in the K League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.36 xG and Jeju United FC 1.31 xG, a combined 2.68. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Ulsan Hyundai FC beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.21 / defence 1.10 against Jeju United FC attack 0.94 / defence 1.20, drawn from 33/33 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ulsan Hyundai FC 38% | Draw 26% | Jeju United FC 36%, with Ulsan Hyundai FC to win its most likely call at 38%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 28% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ulsan Hyundai FC 63%, Jeju United FC 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ulsan Hyundai FC's trading profile (35 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Jeju United FC's trading profile (35 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Ulsan Hyundai FC arrived the stronger side — 1.91 PPG against 1.40. That form edge translated into the three points. Ulsan Hyundai FC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.94 average — above their attacking norm. Jeju United FC (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 0.94 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.