Ulsan Hyundai FC 0-0 Incheon United – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ulsan Hyundai FC at 42%, yet in-form Incheon United provide a compelling counter-argument — this Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Incheon United fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Incheon United make the trip to Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium to face Ulsan Hyundai FC in K League 1, Regular Season - 33. The match kicks off on Sunday 8 October 2023 at 07:00 UTC.
Form
Ulsan Hyundai FC (all games): 3W 4D 3L across 10 K League 1 fixtures this term — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D L D W D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Ulsan Hyundai FC's form when playing at home: 6W 2D 2L across 10 games at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium this term (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Ulsan Hyundai FC are significantly better at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Incheon United have collected 2.00 PPG across 10 K League 1 outings this season: 6W 2D 2L. Last five: W L W D W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.00. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Incheon United's form when playing away from home: 4W 4D 2L across 10 road games this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Incheon United are 0.70 PPG clear of Ulsan Hyundai FC in recent K League 1 fixtures (2.00 vs 1.30). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Ulsan Hyundai FC have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, Incheon United in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 3 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for Ulsan Hyundai FC, 1 for Incheon United and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 12 Jul 2023, ended 1–2 with Incheon United winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Ulsan Hyundai FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (70 games, 34 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games).
Incheon United goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (70 games, 34 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ulsan Hyundai FC 60% versus Incheon United 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ulsan Hyundai FC 57% | Incheon United 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.47 xG and Incheon United 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.174 / defence 1.039 | Incheon United attack 0.994 / defence 0.985. League average goals — home 1.268 / away 1.164. Data: 65 Ulsan Hyundai FC games / 65 Incheon United games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ulsan Hyundai FC 42% | Draw 28% | Incheon United 30%. Fair-value odds: Ulsan Hyundai FC 2.38 | Draw 3.57 | Incheon United 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.67. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.67 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Ulsan Hyundai FC are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Incheon United (2.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Ulsan Hyundai FC if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.67 combined xG gives a 50% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 2.9 goals per game points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates corroborate: Ulsan Hyundai FC 70% | Incheon United 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Incheon United | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 8 Oct 2023, 07:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ulsan Hyundai FC 42% | Draw 28% | Incheon United 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 55% | xG Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.47 / Incheon United 1.20 • Poisson strength factors: Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.174 / def 1.039 | Incheon United attack 0.994 / def 0.985 | league avg home 1.268 / away 1.164 • Poisson stance: Ulsan Hyundai FC (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.47
Ulsan Hyundai FC xG
Expected Goals
1.20
Incheon United xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Incheon United kick off?
Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Incheon United kicked off at 07:00 on Sunday 8 October 2023 at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium.
What was the final score in Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Incheon United?
Ulsan Hyundai FC 0 - 0 Incheon United.
Where is Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Incheon United being played?
The match is being played at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium.
What competition is Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Incheon United part of?
Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Incheon United is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Incheon United?
Our statistical model gives Ulsan Hyundai FC a 42% chance of winning, Incheon United a 30% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Ulsan Hyundai FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Incheon United?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Ulsan Hyundai FC and Incheon United will score (BTTS).
Will Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Incheon United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ulsan Hyundai FC and Incheon United?
Record (3 meetings): Ulsan Hyundai FC 2W | Draws 0 | Incheon United 1W.
What form are Ulsan Hyundai FC and Incheon United in?
Ulsan Hyundai FC (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-D-W-D. Incheon United (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Ulsan Hyundai FC's attack rating (1.17) and Incheon United's defence rating (0.98), the model arrives at 1.47 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Incheon United's attack (0.99x) against Ulsan Hyundai FC's defence (1.04x) — and the away total comes out at 1.20.
These ratings are built from 65/65 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.0%), 1-0 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ulsan Hyundai FC Win
42%
2.37
28%
3.59
30%
3.33
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.2%
Home win
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.47
Ulsan Hyundai FC xG
Total xG
2.67
1.20
Incheon United xG
2.37
42%
Home win
3.59
28%
Draw
3.33
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.82
45%
BTTS No
2.21
Clean Sheet
30%
3.33
23%
4.33
Win to Nil
13%
7.89
7%
14.41
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 8.3 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.2 | 12.2 | 7.4 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 9.0 | 5.4 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 4.4 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Incheon United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Ulsan Hyundai FC and Incheon United expected to score?
The model projects 1.47 expected goals for Ulsan Hyundai FC and 1.20 for Incheon United, a combined total of 2.67.
How confident is the prediction model for Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Incheon United?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 70 outings, Ulsan Hyundai FC have picked up 2.03 PPG on a 42W 16D 12L record — D-L-D-W-D across the most recent five.
Incheon United's form line: 25W 26D 19L from 70 games, 1.44 PPG, last five W-L-W-D-W.
Put side by side, Ulsan Hyundai FC are the form team by 0.59 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Incheon United.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Ulsan Hyundai FC have posted 2.15 PPG from 34 outings (22W 7D 5L).
On the road, Incheon United have gone 12W 12D 10L from 34 away games — 1.41 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ulsan Hyundai FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Ulsan Hyundai FC are averaging 1.61 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Incheon United are on 1.20 scored and 1.13 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Ulsan Hyundai FC have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Last 70 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ulsan Hyundai FC
Current Season
Incheon United
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ulsan Hyundai FC and Incheon United in coming into this match?
Ulsan Hyundai FC have gone 42W 16D 12L in their last 70 games (2.03 PPG), while Incheon United have gone 25W 26D 19L in their last 70 (1.44 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ulsan Hyundai FC at home or Incheon United away?
Ulsan Hyundai FC's home record (2.15 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ulsan Hyundai FC at home: 2.15 PPG; Incheon United away: 1.41 PPG.
Have Ulsan Hyundai FC or Incheon United been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ulsan Hyundai FC have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Incheon United in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since October 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. The two were last together as recently as 21 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Ulsan Hyundai FC won 0-3 on 1 Oct 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Ulsan Hyundai FC have gone 0W 2D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Incheon United — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Ulsan Hyundai FC
4
Draws
3
Incheon United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ulsan Hyundai FC and Incheon United?
From 10 meetings on record, Ulsan Hyundai FC have won 3, Incheon United have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Ulsan Hyundai FC and Incheon United last play each other?
They last met on 21 July 2026, when Ulsan Hyundai FC 1-2 Incheon United.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Ulsan Hyundai FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Incheon United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ulsan Hyundai FC 68%, Incheon United 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 68% (Ulsan Hyundai FC) and 47% (Incheon United). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 26% and 29% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Incheon United in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ulsan Hyundai FC home games / Incheon United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ulsan Hyundai FC play Incheon United?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 68% of Ulsan Hyundai FC's games and 53% of Incheon United's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Incheon United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 68% of Ulsan Hyundai FC's matches and 47% of Incheon United's.
Do Ulsan Hyundai FC and Incheon United tend to score early?
Ulsan Hyundai FC have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Incheon United in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Ulsan Hyundai FC's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ulsan Hyundai FC and Incheon United finished level at 0-0 at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium, Regular Season - 33, in the K League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.47 xG and Incheon United 1.20 xG, a combined 2.67. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Ulsan Hyundai FC fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Incheon United landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.17 / defence 1.04 against Incheon United attack 0.99 / defence 0.98, drawn from 65/65 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ulsan Hyundai FC 42% | Draw 28% | Incheon United 30%, with Ulsan Hyundai FC to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ulsan Hyundai FC 57%, Incheon United 39%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ulsan Hyundai FC's trading profile (70 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.
Incheon United's trading profile (70 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Ulsan Hyundai FC arrived the stronger side — 2.03 PPG against 1.44. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Ulsan Hyundai FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.82 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.03 average — tighter than their form line. Incheon United (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.21 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.32 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.