Ulsan Hyundai FC 2-1 Gangwon FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ulsan Hyundai FC at 35%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Gangwon FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Ulsan Hyundai FC host Gangwon FC at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium in K League 1, Championship Group - 34. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 1 November 2026 at 05:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all K League 1 games this season, Ulsan Hyundai FC have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: W L L W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Ulsan Hyundai FC's form when playing at home: 6W 1D 3L across 10 games at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium this term (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Ulsan Hyundai FC are significantly better at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Gangwon FC — All Games: 2W 7D 1L from 10 K League 1 fixtures this season — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L D W D D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Gangwon FC's form when playing away from home: 3W 5D 2L across 10 road games this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.40 PPG (Ulsan Hyundai FC) versus 1.30 (Gangwon FC). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Ulsan Hyundai FC register both teams scoring in 90% of relevant matches, Gangwon FC in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 3 wins apiece for Ulsan Hyundai FC, 4 for Gangwon FC and 2 shared spoils from 9 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 9 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 2.9 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 16 Aug 2026, ended 2–3 with Gangwon FC winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 2.9 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Ulsan Hyundai FC trading profile (71 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).
Gangwon FC trading profile (71 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 59% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time; they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ulsan Hyundai FC 59% versus Gangwon FC 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ulsan Hyundai FC 49% | Gangwon FC 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.44 xG and Gangwon FC 1.42 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.272 / defence 1.103 | Gangwon FC attack 0.972 / defence 0.891. League average goals — home 1.269 / away 1.328. Ulsan Hyundai FC carry an above-average attack strength of 1.272 — their λ of 1.44 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 66 Ulsan Hyundai FC games / 66 Gangwon FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ulsan Hyundai FC 35% | Draw 31% | Gangwon FC 34%. Fair-value odds: Ulsan Hyundai FC 2.86 | Draw 3.23 | Gangwon FC 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 2.86. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.86 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.44 / 1.42) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Ulsan Hyundai FC as the most likely outcome at 35% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Ulsan Hyundai FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.86 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.9 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 61% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Ulsan Hyundai FC 90% | Gangwon FC 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Gangwon FC | Competition: K League 1, Championship Group - 34 | Venue: Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 1 Nov 2026, 05:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ulsan Hyundai FC 35% | Draw 31% | Gangwon FC 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 61% | xG Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.44 / Gangwon FC 1.42 • Poisson strength factors: Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.272 / def 1.103 | Gangwon FC attack 0.972 / def 0.891 | league avg home 1.269 / away 1.328 • Poisson stance: Ulsan Hyundai FC (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.44
Ulsan Hyundai FC xG
Expected Goals
1.42
Gangwon FC xG
61%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Gangwon FC kick off?
Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Gangwon FC kicked off at 05:00 on Sunday 1 November 2026 at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium.
What was the final score in Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Gangwon FC?
Ulsan Hyundai FC 2 - 1 Gangwon FC.
Where is Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Gangwon FC being played?
The match is being played at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium.
What competition is Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Gangwon FC part of?
Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Gangwon FC is a Championship Group - 34 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Gangwon FC?
Our statistical model gives Ulsan Hyundai FC a 35% chance of winning, Gangwon FC a 34% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Ulsan Hyundai FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Gangwon FC?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Ulsan Hyundai FC and Gangwon FC will score (BTTS).
Will Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Gangwon FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ulsan Hyundai FC and Gangwon FC?
Record (9 meetings): Ulsan Hyundai FC 3W | Draws 2 | Gangwon FC 4W.
What form are Ulsan Hyundai FC and Gangwon FC in?
Ulsan Hyundai FC (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-L-W-D. Gangwon FC (all comps): 2W-7D-1L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-D-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Ulsan Hyundai FC's attack at 1.27x the league average against Gangwon FC's defence at 0.89x — combine the two and it projects 1.44 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Gangwon FC's attack versus Ulsan Hyundai FC's defence, projects 1.42 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 66/66 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.4%), 1-2 (8.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Ulsan Hyundai FC Win
35%
2.85
31%
3.27
34%
2.91
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.4%
Home win
1 – 2
8.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.44
Ulsan Hyundai FC xG
Total xG
2.86
1.42
Gangwon FC xG
2.85
35%
Home win
3.27
31%
Draw
2.91
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.65
39%
BTTS No
2.54
Clean Sheet
24%
4.15
24%
4.21
Win to Nil
8%
11.84
8%
12.26
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 8.1 | 5.8 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.2 | 11.7 | 8.3 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 8.4 | 6.0 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 4.0 | 2.9 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Gangwon FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Ulsan Hyundai FC and Gangwon FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.44 expected goals for Ulsan Hyundai FC and 1.42 for Gangwon FC, a combined total of 2.86.
How confident is the prediction model for Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Gangwon FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Ulsan Hyundai FC come into this having played 71 games, going 26W 17D 28L for 1.34 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-W-D.
On the other side, Gangwon FC sit at 1.41 PPG from 71 outings (24W 28D 19L), a run that reads L-D-W-D-D across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Ulsan Hyundai FC on 1.34 PPG, Gangwon FC on 1.41. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Ulsan Hyundai FC's home form reads 16W 7D 13L across 36 games on their own ground, a 1.53 PPG return.
Away from home, Gangwon FC have taken 1.39 points per game from 36 outings (13W 11D 12L).
Goals in Recent Form
Ulsan Hyundai FC are averaging 1.32 goals scored and 1.37 conceded per game recently; Gangwon FC are on 1.08 scored and 1.00 conceded.
Defensively: Gangwon FC in 41% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 71 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ulsan Hyundai FC
Current Season
Gangwon FC
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ulsan Hyundai FC and Gangwon FC in coming into this match?
Ulsan Hyundai FC have gone 26W 17D 28L in their last 71 games (1.34 PPG), while Gangwon FC have gone 24W 28D 19L in their last 71 (1.41 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ulsan Hyundai FC at home or Gangwon FC away?
Ulsan Hyundai FC's home record (1.53 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ulsan Hyundai FC at home: 1.53 PPG; Gangwon FC away: 1.39 PPG.
Have Ulsan Hyundai FC or Gangwon FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ulsan Hyundai FC have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, Gangwon FC in 41%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. The two were last together as recently as 1 November 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Ulsan Hyundai FC's record when hosting Gangwon FC specifically: 4W 0D 2L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Ulsan Hyundai FC
2
Draws
4
Gangwon FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ulsan Hyundai FC and Gangwon FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Ulsan Hyundai FC have won 4, Gangwon FC have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Ulsan Hyundai FC and Gangwon FC last play each other?
They last met on 1 November 2026, when Ulsan Hyundai FC 2-1 Gangwon FC.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Ulsan Hyundai FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Gangwon FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ulsan Hyundai FC 58%, Gangwon FC 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Ulsan Hyundai FC) and 42% (Gangwon FC).
On the defensive side: Ulsan Hyundai FC keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Gangwon FC in 39%; Gangwon FC in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ulsan Hyundai FC home games / Gangwon FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ulsan Hyundai FC play Gangwon FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 58% of Ulsan Hyundai FC's recent matches and 42% of Gangwon FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Gangwon FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Ulsan Hyundai FC's recent games and 42% of Gangwon FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ulsan Hyundai FC and Gangwon FC tend to score early?
Ulsan Hyundai FC have had a goal before half-time in 61% of their recent matches, Gangwon FC in 61% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Ulsan Hyundai FC edge out Gangwon FC 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ulsan Hyundai FC beat Gangwon FC 2-1 at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium, Championship Group - 34, in the K League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.44 xG and Gangwon FC 1.42 xG, a combined 2.86. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.27 / defence 1.10 against Gangwon FC attack 0.97 / defence 0.89, drawn from 66/66 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ulsan Hyundai FC 35% | Draw 31% | Gangwon FC 34%, with Ulsan Hyundai FC to win its most likely call at 35%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ulsan Hyundai FC 49%, Gangwon FC 38%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ulsan Hyundai FC's trading profile (71 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Gangwon FC's trading profile (71 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.34 PPG, Gangwon FC 1.41 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Ulsan Hyundai FC win broke the near-deadlock. Gangwon FC (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.03 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.