Ulsan Hyundai FC 3-3 Daejeon Citizen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ulsan Hyundai FC at 60%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Daejeon Citizen fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A K League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 15 sees Daejeon Citizen travel to Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium to take on Ulsan Hyundai FC. The game is scheduled for Sunday 28 May 2023, 11:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Ulsan Hyundai FC stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 K League 1 matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W W D W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Ulsan Hyundai FC at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium this season: 7W 1D 2L from 10 home games — 2.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.70 — Ulsan Hyundai FC are significantly better at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Across all K League 1 games this season, Daejeon Citizen have recorded 3W 0D 1L from 4 outings — 2.25 PPG. Last five: W L W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 4 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Daejeon Citizen have played only a handful of K League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Daejeon Citizen — 0.55 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.25 vs 1.70). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
In-Play Profile
Ulsan Hyundai FC in-play tendencies (4 games): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures; they lead at the break 50% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 50% of the time; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 25% of cases; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games.
Daejeon Citizen in-play tendencies (4 games): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games; Over 3.5 in 50%; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Ulsan Hyundai FC 100% and Daejeon Citizen 50% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Ulsan Hyundai FC 75% | Daejeon Citizen 75%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ulsan Hyundai FC 2.33 xG and Daejeon Citizen 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.357 / defence 0.937 | Daejeon Citizen attack 1.067 / defence 1.409. League average goals — home 1.221 / away 1.288. Ulsan Hyundai FC carry an above-average attack strength of 1.357 — their λ of 2.33 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Daejeon Citizen bring a strong defensive rating of 1.409 — this is suppressing Ulsan Hyundai FC's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 47 Ulsan Hyundai FC games / 14 Daejeon Citizen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ulsan Hyundai FC 60% | Draw 20% | Daejeon Citizen 20%. Fair-value odds: Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.67 | Draw 5.00 | Daejeon Citizen 5.00. The model has a clear lean to Ulsan Hyundai FC (60%) — a 40pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 70% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.62. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 70% — a total xG of 3.62 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (2.33 / 1.29) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Ulsan Hyundai FC are the pick at 60% — clear model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Daejeon Citizen (2.25 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.62 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 70% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 66% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Ulsan Hyundai FC 70% | Daejeon Citizen 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Daejeon Citizen | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 28 May 2023, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ulsan Hyundai FC 60% | Draw 20% | Daejeon Citizen 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 70% | BTTS 66% | xG Ulsan Hyundai FC 2.33 / Daejeon Citizen 1.29 • Poisson strength factors: Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.357 / def 0.937 | Daejeon Citizen attack 1.067 / def 1.409 | league avg home 1.221 / away 1.288 • Poisson stance: Ulsan Hyundai FC (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.33
Ulsan Hyundai FC xG
Expected Goals
1.29
Daejeon Citizen xG
66%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
70%
Over 2.5
49%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Daejeon Citizen kick off?
Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Daejeon Citizen kicked off at 11:00 on Sunday 28 May 2023 at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium.
What was the final score in Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Daejeon Citizen?
Ulsan Hyundai FC 3 - 3 Daejeon Citizen.
Where is Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Daejeon Citizen being played?
The match is being played at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium.
What competition is Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Daejeon Citizen part of?
Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Daejeon Citizen is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Daejeon Citizen?
Our statistical model gives Ulsan Hyundai FC a 60% chance of winning, Daejeon Citizen a 20% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Ulsan Hyundai FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Daejeon Citizen?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both Ulsan Hyundai FC and Daejeon Citizen will score (BTTS).
Will Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Daejeon Citizen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 70%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ulsan Hyundai FC and Daejeon Citizen?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Ulsan Hyundai FC and Daejeon Citizen in?
Ulsan Hyundai FC (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-D-W-L. Daejeon Citizen (all comps): 3W-0D-1L in 4 | 2.25 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.25 | L5 W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Ulsan Hyundai FC's attacking strength (1.36x league average) is weighed against Daejeon Citizen's defensive record (1.41x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.33. The same calculation in reverse, Daejeon Citizen's attack versus Ulsan Hyundai FC's defence, projects 1.29 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 47/14 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-1, at 9.4%. Close behind: 1-1 (9.1%), 3-1 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Ulsan Hyundai FC Win
60%
1.66
20%
4.98
20%
5.10
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.0%
Draw
2 – 0
7.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.33
Ulsan Hyundai FC xG
Total xG
3.62
1.29
Daejeon Citizen xG
1.66
60%
Home win
4.98
20%
Draw
5.10
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
70%
Over 2.5
1.43
30%
Under 2.5
3.33
49%
Over 3.5
2.04
51%
Under 3.5
1.96
30%
Over 4.5
3.33
70%
Under 4.5
1.43
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.52
34%
BTTS No
2.93
Clean Sheet
28%
3.62
10%
10.33
Win to Nil
17%
6.00
2%
52.73
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.7 | 3.4 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 6.2 | 8.0 | 5.2 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 9.4 | 6.0 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.7 | 7.3 | 4.7 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 3.3 | 4.3 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.5 | 2.0 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Daejeon Citizen?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.4%.
How many goals are Ulsan Hyundai FC and Daejeon Citizen expected to score?
The model projects 2.33 expected goals for Ulsan Hyundai FC and 1.29 for Daejeon Citizen, a combined total of 3.62.
How confident is the prediction model for Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Daejeon Citizen?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 4 outings, Ulsan Hyundai FC have picked up 1.75 PPG on a 2W 1D 1L record — W-D-W-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Ulsan Hyundai FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Daejeon Citizen's form line: 3W 0D 1L from 4 games, 2.25 PPG, last five W-L-W-W. It's still early in the season for Daejeon Citizen, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Daejeon Citizen are the form team by 0.50 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Ulsan Hyundai FC.
Goals in Recent Form
Ulsan Hyundai FC are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; Daejeon Citizen are on 2.00 scored and 1.25 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Ulsan Hyundai FC have seen both teams score in 100% of their recent games.
Defensively: Daejeon Citizen in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 4 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ulsan Hyundai FC
Early Season
Daejeon Citizen
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ulsan Hyundai FC and Daejeon Citizen in coming into this match?
Ulsan Hyundai FC have gone 2W 1D 1L in their last 4 games (1.75 PPG), while Daejeon Citizen have gone 3W 0D 1L in their last 4 (2.25 PPG).
Have Ulsan Hyundai FC or Daejeon Citizen been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ulsan Hyundai FC have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, Daejeon Citizen in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. The two were last together as recently as 18 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 25 May 2024, when Ulsan Hyundai FC won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Ulsan Hyundai FC's record when hosting Daejeon Citizen specifically: 1W 2D 3L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Ulsan Hyundai FC
3
Draws
4
Daejeon Citizen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ulsan Hyundai FC and Daejeon Citizen?
From 10 meetings on record, Ulsan Hyundai FC have won 3, Daejeon Citizen have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Ulsan Hyundai FC and Daejeon Citizen last play each other?
They last met on 18 July 2026, when Daejeon Citizen 2-2 Ulsan Hyundai FC.
Who has won more matches between Ulsan Hyundai FC and Daejeon Citizen?
Daejeon Citizen have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Ulsan Hyundai FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 50% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Daejeon Citizen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Ulsan Hyundai FC at 100%, Daejeon Citizen at 50%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 75% for Ulsan Hyundai FC and 75% for Daejeon Citizen. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 0% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Daejeon Citizen in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ulsan Hyundai FC home games / Daejeon Citizen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ulsan Hyundai FC play Daejeon Citizen?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 100% of Ulsan Hyundai FC's games and 50% of Daejeon Citizen's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Daejeon Citizen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of Ulsan Hyundai FC's matches and 75% of Daejeon Citizen's.
Do Ulsan Hyundai FC and Daejeon Citizen tend to score early?
Ulsan Hyundai FC have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Daejeon Citizen in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Ulsan Hyundai FC and Daejeon Citizen share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ulsan Hyundai FC and Daejeon Citizen finished level at 3-3 at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium, Regular Season - 15, in the K League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ulsan Hyundai FC 2.33 xG and Daejeon Citizen 1.29 xG, a combined 3.62. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. Daejeon Citizen outscored their 1.29 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.36 / defence 0.94 against Daejeon Citizen attack 1.07 / defence 1.41, drawn from 47/14 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ulsan Hyundai FC 60% | Draw 20% | Daejeon Citizen 20%, with Ulsan Hyundai FC to win its most likely call at 60%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 70%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 49% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 75% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ulsan Hyundai FC 75%, Daejeon Citizen 75%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 75%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ulsan Hyundai FC's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 100% of their matches — today it did.
Daejeon Citizen's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Daejeon Citizen arrived the stronger side — 2.25 PPG against 1.75. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Ulsan Hyundai FC scored 3 against a 1.50 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.25 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Daejeon Citizen scored 3 against a 2.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.25 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.