Ulsan Hyundai FC 1-0 Daegu FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Ulsan Hyundai FC at 66% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Daegu FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Daegu FC make the trip to Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium to face Ulsan Hyundai FC in K League 1, Regular Season - 19. The match kicks off on Wednesday 26 June 2024 at 11:30 UTC.
Current Form
Ulsan Hyundai FC's overall K League 1 record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: L W W L W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
In front of their own supporters this season, Ulsan Hyundai FC have posted 6W 2D 2L at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium — 2.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Ulsan Hyundai FC are significantly better at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Daegu FC (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 K League 1 outings this term — 1.50 points per game. Last five: L L D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
When travelling in K League 1 this season, Daegu FC have posted 3W 2D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.50 vs 1.50 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Historically, Ulsan Hyundai FC have had the better of this match-up — 3 wins from 4 meetings, with Daegu FC managing just 0 victories and 1 draws shared.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 1 May 2024, ended 2–1 with Ulsan Hyundai FC winning.
The historical record gives Ulsan Hyundai FC a meaningful edge here — 3 wins from 4 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
Trading
Ulsan Hyundai FC half-time and goal-timing data (76 games, 38 at home): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games).
Daegu FC half-time and goal-timing data (76 games, 38 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ulsan Hyundai FC 58% versus Daegu FC 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ulsan Hyundai FC 55% | Daegu FC 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ulsan Hyundai FC 2.18 xG and Daegu FC 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.399 / defence 0.964 | Daegu FC attack 0.825 / defence 1.047. League average goals — home 1.486 / away 1.164. Ulsan Hyundai FC carry an above-average attack strength of 1.399 — their λ of 2.18 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 51 Ulsan Hyundai FC games / 51 Daegu FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ulsan Hyundai FC 66% | Draw 19% | Daegu FC 15%. Fair-value odds: Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.52 | Draw 5.26 | Daegu FC 6.67. The model has a clear lean to Ulsan Hyundai FC (66%) — a 51pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 3.10. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.10 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Ulsan Hyundai FC at 66% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.10 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 60% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Ulsan Hyundai FC 50% | Daegu FC 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Daegu FC | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium • Kick-off: Wednesday 26 Jun 2024, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ulsan Hyundai FC 66% | Draw 19% | Daegu FC 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 54% | xG Ulsan Hyundai FC 2.18 / Daegu FC 0.93 • Poisson strength factors: Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.399 / def 0.964 | Daegu FC attack 0.825 / def 1.047 | league avg home 1.486 / away 1.164 • Poisson stance: Ulsan Hyundai FC (66%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.18
Ulsan Hyundai FC xG
Expected Goals
0.93
Daegu FC xG
54%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Daegu FC kick off?
Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Daegu FC kicked off at 11:30 on Wednesday 26 June 2024 at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium.
What was the final score in Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Daegu FC?
Ulsan Hyundai FC 1 - 0 Daegu FC.
Where is Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Daegu FC being played?
The match is being played at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium.
What competition is Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Daegu FC part of?
Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Daegu FC is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Daegu FC?
Our statistical model gives Ulsan Hyundai FC a 66% chance of winning, Daegu FC a 15% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Ulsan Hyundai FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Daegu FC?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Ulsan Hyundai FC and Daegu FC will score (BTTS).
Will Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Daegu FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ulsan Hyundai FC and Daegu FC?
Record (4 meetings): Ulsan Hyundai FC 3W | Draws 1 | Daegu FC 0W.
What form are Ulsan Hyundai FC and Daegu FC in?
Ulsan Hyundai FC (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-W-L-W. Daegu FC (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-L-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Ulsan Hyundai FC's attacking strength (1.40x league average) is weighed against Daegu FC's defensive record (1.05x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.18. Flip it around — Daegu FC's attack (0.82x) against Ulsan Hyundai FC's defence (0.96x) — and the away total comes out at 0.93.
These ratings are built from 51/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 10.6%. Close behind: 1-1 (10.2%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ulsan Hyundai FC Win
66%
1.52
19%
5.19
15%
6.74
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.6%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
1 – 0
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.18
Ulsan Hyundai FC xG
Total xG
3.10
0.93
Daegu FC xG
1.52
66%
Home win
5.19
19%
Draw
6.74
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.87
46%
BTTS No
2.15
Clean Sheet
40%
2.52
11%
8.81
Win to Nil
26%
3.83
2%
59.37
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.5 | 4.2 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 9.8 | 9.1 | 4.2 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.6 | 9.9 | 4.6 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.7 | 7.1 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 4.2 | 3.9 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Daegu FC?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.6%.
How many goals are Ulsan Hyundai FC and Daegu FC expected to score?
The model projects 2.18 expected goals for Ulsan Hyundai FC and 0.93 for Daegu FC, a combined total of 3.10.
How confident is the prediction model for Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Daegu FC?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 66%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Ulsan Hyundai FC's recent record stands at 45W 17D 14L from 76 games, a 2.00 PPG return, with L-W-W-L-W in the last five.
Daegu FC, meanwhile, have gone 23W 30D 23L across 76 games — 1.30 PPG, with L-L-D-L-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Ulsan Hyundai FC by 0.70 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Daegu FC heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Ulsan Hyundai FC have managed 25W 8D 5L from 38 games — 2.18 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Daegu FC's away record stands at 8W 15D 15L across 38 trips, a 1.03 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ulsan Hyundai FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Ulsan Hyundai FC are averaging 1.58 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Daegu FC are on 1.24 scored and 1.34 conceded.
Last 76 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ulsan Hyundai FC
Current Season
Daegu FC
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ulsan Hyundai FC and Daegu FC in coming into this match?
Ulsan Hyundai FC have gone 45W 17D 14L in their last 76 games (2.00 PPG), while Daegu FC have gone 23W 30D 23L in their last 76 (1.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ulsan Hyundai FC at home or Daegu FC away?
Ulsan Hyundai FC's home record (2.18 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ulsan Hyundai FC at home: 2.18 PPG; Daegu FC away: 1.03 PPG.
Have Ulsan Hyundai FC or Daegu FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ulsan Hyundai FC have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Daegu FC in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since June 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. They last met on 26 October 2025, roughly 9 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 3 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Ulsan Hyundai FC have gone 4W 2D 0L from 6 meetings on their own ground against Daegu FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Ulsan Hyundai FC
4
Draws
0
Daegu FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ulsan Hyundai FC and Daegu FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Ulsan Hyundai FC have won 6, Daegu FC have won 0, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Ulsan Hyundai FC and Daegu FC last play each other?
They last met on 26 October 2025, when Ulsan Hyundai FC 1-1 Daegu FC.
Who has won more matches between Ulsan Hyundai FC and Daegu FC?
Ulsan Hyundai FC have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Ulsan Hyundai FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Daegu FC see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ulsan Hyundai FC 63%, Daegu FC 63% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 63% (Ulsan Hyundai FC) and 47% (Daegu FC). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 26% and 37% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Ulsan Hyundai FC keep a clean sheet in 34% of their matches; Daegu FC in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ulsan Hyundai FC home games / Daegu FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ulsan Hyundai FC play Daegu FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 63% of Ulsan Hyundai FC's games and 63% of Daegu FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Daegu FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 63% of Ulsan Hyundai FC's matches and 47% of Daegu FC's.
Do Ulsan Hyundai FC and Daegu FC tend to score early?
Ulsan Hyundai FC have had a goal before half-time in 66% of their recent matches, Daegu FC in 58% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Ulsan Hyundai FC edge out Daegu FC 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ulsan Hyundai FC beat Daegu FC 1-0 at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium, Regular Season - 19, in the K League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ulsan Hyundai FC 2.18 xG and Daegu FC 0.93 xG, a combined 3.10. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Ulsan Hyundai FC fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Daegu FC landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.40 / defence 0.96 against Daegu FC attack 0.82 / defence 1.05, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ulsan Hyundai FC 66% | Draw 19% | Daegu FC 15%, with Ulsan Hyundai FC to win its most likely call at 66%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 82% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ulsan Hyundai FC 55%, Daegu FC 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ulsan Hyundai FC's trading profile (76 games, 38 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Daegu FC's trading profile (76 games, 38 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Ulsan Hyundai FC arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.30. That form edge translated into the three points. Ulsan Hyundai FC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.97 average — tighter than their form line. Daegu FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.18 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.