Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Bucheon FC 1995 – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ulsan Hyundai FC at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Bucheon FC 1995 fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium plays host to Ulsan Hyundai FC versus Bucheon FC 1995 in K League 1, Regular Season - 32. Kick-off: Saturday 17 October 2026 at 07:30 UTC.
Form
Ulsan Hyundai FC (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 K League 1 fixtures this term — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L L L W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Ulsan Hyundai FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ulsan Hyundai FC at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium this season: 5W 0D 5L from 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Bucheon FC 1995's overall K League 1 record this term: 2W 3D 5L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: W L L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Bucheon FC 1995, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Bucheon FC 1995 have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.40 PPG for Ulsan Hyundai FC against 0.90 for Bucheon FC 1995. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Ulsan Hyundai FC 2W, Bucheon FC 1995 0W, 0D.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 10 May 2026, ended 1–0 with Ulsan Hyundai FC winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Ulsan Hyundai FC — key trading statistics (29 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games).
Bucheon FC 1995 — key trading statistics (29 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ulsan Hyundai FC 62% versus Bucheon FC 1995 41%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ulsan Hyundai FC 55% | Bucheon FC 1995 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.75 xG and Bucheon FC 1995 1.31 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.356 / defence 1.250 | Bucheon FC 1995 attack 0.776 / defence 1.108. League average goals — home 1.165 / away 1.350. Ulsan Hyundai FC carry an above-average attack strength of 1.356 — their λ of 1.75 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 60 Ulsan Hyundai FC games / 27 Bucheon FC 1995 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ulsan Hyundai FC 45% | Draw 30% | Bucheon FC 1995 26%. Fair-value odds: Ulsan Hyundai FC 2.22 | Draw 3.33 | Bucheon FC 1995 3.85. Ulsan Hyundai FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.06. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.06 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.75 / 1.31) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Ulsan Hyundai FC as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Ulsan Hyundai FC if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 3.06 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 59% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 63% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Ulsan Hyundai FC 80% | Bucheon FC 1995 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Bucheon FC 1995 | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 17 Oct 2026, 07:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ulsan Hyundai FC 45% | Draw 30% | Bucheon FC 1995 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 63% | xG Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.75 / Bucheon FC 1995 1.31 • Poisson strength factors: Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.356 / def 1.250 | Bucheon FC 1995 attack 0.776 / def 1.108 | league avg home 1.165 / away 1.350 • Poisson stance: Ulsan Hyundai FC (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.75
Ulsan Hyundai FC xG
Expected Goals
1.31
Bucheon FC 1995 xG
63%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Bucheon FC 1995 kick off?
Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Bucheon FC 1995 is scheduled to kick off at 07:30 on Saturday 17 October 2026 at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium.
Where is Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Bucheon FC 1995 being played?
The match is being played at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium.
What competition is Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Bucheon FC 1995 part of?
Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Bucheon FC 1995 is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Bucheon FC 1995?
Our statistical model gives Ulsan Hyundai FC a 45% chance of winning, Bucheon FC 1995 a 26% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Ulsan Hyundai FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Bucheon FC 1995?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Ulsan Hyundai FC and Bucheon FC 1995 will score (BTTS).
Will Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Bucheon FC 1995 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ulsan Hyundai FC and Bucheon FC 1995?
Record (2 meetings): Ulsan Hyundai FC 2W | Draws 0 | Bucheon FC 1995 0W.
What form are Ulsan Hyundai FC and Bucheon FC 1995 in?
Ulsan Hyundai FC (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-L-W-D. Bucheon FC 1995 (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-L-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Ulsan Hyundai FC's attack rating (1.36) and Bucheon FC 1995's defence rating (1.11), the model arrives at 1.75 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Bucheon FC 1995's attack (0.78x) against Ulsan Hyundai FC's defence (1.25x) — and the away total comes out at 1.31.
These ratings are built from 60/27 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 2-0 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Ulsan Hyundai FC Win
45%
2.24
30%
3.37
26%
3.90
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
1 – 0
8.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.75
Ulsan Hyundai FC xG
Total xG
3.06
1.31
Bucheon FC 1995 xG
2.24
45%
Home win
3.37
30%
Draw
3.90
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.58
37%
BTTS No
2.74
Clean Sheet
27%
3.71
17%
5.76
Win to Nil
12%
8.29
4%
22.47
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 6.1 | 4.0 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.2 | 10.7 | 7.0 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 9.4 | 6.2 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 5.5 | 3.6 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.4 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Bucheon FC 1995?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are Ulsan Hyundai FC and Bucheon FC 1995 expected to score?
The model projects 1.75 expected goals for Ulsan Hyundai FC and 1.31 for Bucheon FC 1995, a combined total of 3.06.
How confident is the prediction model for Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Bucheon FC 1995?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 29 outings, Ulsan Hyundai FC have picked up 1.41 PPG on a 12W 5D 12L record — L-L-L-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for Ulsan Hyundai FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Bucheon FC 1995's form line: 8W 10D 11L from 29 games, 1.17 PPG, last five W-L-L-D-L. The sample for Bucheon FC 1995 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.41 PPG for Ulsan Hyundai FC against 1.17 for Bucheon FC 1995. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Ulsan Hyundai FC have posted 1.36 PPG from 14 outings (6W 1D 7L).
On the road, Bucheon FC 1995 have gone 5W 4D 5L from 14 away games — 1.36 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Ulsan Hyundai FC are averaging 1.41 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; Bucheon FC 1995 are on 1.00 scored and 1.34 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Ulsan Hyundai FC have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 29 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ulsan Hyundai FC
Blended
Bucheon FC 1995
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ulsan Hyundai FC and Bucheon FC 1995 in coming into this match?
Ulsan Hyundai FC have gone 12W 5D 12L in their last 29 games (1.41 PPG), while Bucheon FC 1995 have gone 8W 10D 11L in their last 29 (1.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ulsan Hyundai FC at home or Bucheon FC 1995 away?
Ulsan Hyundai FC's home record (1.36 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ulsan Hyundai FC at home: 1.36 PPG; Bucheon FC 1995 away: 1.36 PPG.
Have Ulsan Hyundai FC or Bucheon FC 1995 been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ulsan Hyundai FC have kept a clean sheet in 17% of their recent games, Bucheon FC 1995 in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to March 2026 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. They last met on 10 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Ulsan Hyundai FC
0
Draws
0
Bucheon FC 1995
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ulsan Hyundai FC and Bucheon FC 1995?
From 2 meetings on record, Ulsan Hyundai FC have won 2, Bucheon FC 1995 have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Ulsan Hyundai FC and Bucheon FC 1995 last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2026, when Ulsan Hyundai FC 1-0 Bucheon FC 1995.
Who has won more matches between Ulsan Hyundai FC and Bucheon FC 1995?
Ulsan Hyundai FC have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Ulsan Hyundai FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Bucheon FC 1995 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ulsan Hyundai FC 71%, Bucheon FC 1995 36% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 71% (Ulsan Hyundai FC) and 43% (Bucheon FC 1995). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 57% and 21% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Bucheon FC 1995 in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ulsan Hyundai FC home games / Bucheon FC 1995 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ulsan Hyundai FC play Bucheon FC 1995?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 71% of Ulsan Hyundai FC's recent matches and 36% of Bucheon FC 1995's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Bucheon FC 1995 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of Ulsan Hyundai FC's matches and 43% of Bucheon FC 1995's.
Do Ulsan Hyundai FC and Bucheon FC 1995 tend to score early?
Ulsan Hyundai FC have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Bucheon FC 1995 in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.