Suwon City FC 4-2 Suwon Bluewings – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Suwon City FC (51%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Suwon City FC face Suwon Bluewings.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A K League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 27 sees Suwon Bluewings travel to Suwon Sports Complex to take on Suwon City FC. The game is scheduled for Saturday 6 August 2022, 11:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Suwon City FC stand at 5W 3D 2L from 10 K League 1 matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W W L D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Suwon City FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Suwon City FC at Suwon Sports Complex this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Suwon Bluewings — All Games: 1W 4D 5L from 10 K League 1 fixtures this season — 0.70 PPG. Last five: D L L D W. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Suwon Bluewings, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Suwon Bluewings's away record: 1W 3D 6L from 10 road trips in K League 1 this season (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Suwon City FC carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.10 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.80 vs 0.70. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 3 wins apiece for Suwon City FC, 1 for Suwon Bluewings and 0 shared spoils from 4 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 25 Jun 2022, ended 3–0 with Suwon City FC winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Suwon City FC in-play tendencies (62 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 74% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Suwon Bluewings in-play tendencies (62 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 52% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Suwon City FC 60% versus Suwon Bluewings 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Suwon City FC 60% | Suwon Bluewings 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Suwon City FC 1.97 xG and Suwon Bluewings 1.39 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Suwon City FC attack 1.394 / defence 1.468 | Suwon Bluewings attack 0.758 / defence 1.092. League average goals — home 1.297 / away 1.245. Suwon City FC carry an above-average attack strength of 1.394 — their λ of 1.97 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 57 Suwon City FC games / 57 Suwon Bluewings games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Suwon City FC 51% | Draw 23% | Suwon Bluewings 26%. Fair-value odds: Suwon City FC 1.96 | Draw 4.35 | Suwon Bluewings 3.85. Suwon City FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.36. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.36 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (1.97 / 1.39) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Suwon City FC as the most likely outcome at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Suwon City FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 3.36 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 65% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 65% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Suwon City FC 80% | Suwon Bluewings 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Suwon City FC vs Suwon Bluewings | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Suwon Sports Complex • Kick-off: Saturday 6 Aug 2022, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Suwon City FC 51% | Draw 23% | Suwon Bluewings 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% | BTTS 65% | xG Suwon City FC 1.97 / Suwon Bluewings 1.39 • Poisson strength factors: Suwon City FC attack 1.394 / def 1.468 | Suwon Bluewings attack 0.758 / def 1.092 | league avg home 1.297 / away 1.245 • Poisson stance: Suwon City FC (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.97
Suwon City FC xG
Expected Goals
1.39
Suwon Bluewings xG
65%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Suwon City FC vs Suwon Bluewings kick off?
Suwon City FC vs Suwon Bluewings kicked off at 11:30 on Saturday 6 August 2022 at Suwon Sports Complex.
What was the final score in Suwon City FC vs Suwon Bluewings?
Suwon City FC 4 - 2 Suwon Bluewings.
Where is Suwon City FC vs Suwon Bluewings being played?
The match is being played at Suwon Sports Complex.
What competition is Suwon City FC vs Suwon Bluewings part of?
Suwon City FC vs Suwon Bluewings is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Suwon City FC vs Suwon Bluewings?
Our statistical model gives Suwon City FC a 51% chance of winning, Suwon Bluewings a 26% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Suwon City FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Suwon City FC vs Suwon Bluewings?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Suwon City FC and Suwon Bluewings will score (BTTS).
Will Suwon City FC vs Suwon Bluewings have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%.
What is the head-to-head record between Suwon City FC and Suwon Bluewings?
Record (4 meetings): Suwon City FC 3W | Draws 0 | Suwon Bluewings 1W.
What form are Suwon City FC and Suwon Bluewings in?
Suwon City FC (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-L-D-D. Suwon Bluewings (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-L-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Suwon City FC's attacking strength (1.39x league average) is weighed against Suwon Bluewings's defensive record (1.09x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.97. The same calculation in reverse, Suwon Bluewings's attack versus Suwon City FC's defence, projects 1.39 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 57/57 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 2-0 (6.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Suwon City FC Win
51%
1.97
23%
4.37
26%
3.79
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
1 – 0
6.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.97
Suwon City FC xG
Total xG
3.36
1.39
Suwon Bluewings xG
1.97
51%
Home win
4.37
23%
Draw
3.79
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
43%
Over 3.5
2.33
57%
Under 3.5
1.75
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.54
35%
BTTS No
2.86
Clean Sheet
25%
3.99
14%
7.20
Win to Nil
13%
7.88
4%
27.25
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.5 | 4.8 | 3.3 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 6.9 | 9.5 | 6.6 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 9.4 | 6.5 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 6.2 | 4.3 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.2 | 3.0 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Suwon City FC vs Suwon Bluewings?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.7%.
How many goals are Suwon City FC and Suwon Bluewings expected to score?
The model projects 1.97 expected goals for Suwon City FC and 1.39 for Suwon Bluewings, a combined total of 3.36.
How confident is the prediction model for Suwon City FC vs Suwon Bluewings?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 62 outings, Suwon City FC have picked up 1.31 PPG on a 22W 15D 25L record — W-W-L-D-D across the most recent five. The sample for Suwon City FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Suwon Bluewings's form line: 17W 19D 26L from 62 games, 1.13 PPG, last five D-L-L-D-W. The sample for Suwon Bluewings is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Suwon City FC on 1.31 PPG, Suwon Bluewings on 1.13. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Suwon City FC have posted 1.52 PPG from 31 outings (14W 5D 12L).
On the road, Suwon Bluewings have gone 8W 8D 15L from 31 away games — 1.03 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Suwon City FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Suwon City FC are averaging 1.44 goals scored and 1.55 conceded per game recently; Suwon Bluewings are on 0.95 scored and 1.24 conceded.
Last 62 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Suwon City FC
Blended
Suwon Bluewings
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Suwon City FC and Suwon Bluewings in coming into this match?
Suwon City FC have gone 22W 15D 25L in their last 62 games (1.31 PPG), while Suwon Bluewings have gone 17W 19D 26L in their last 62 (1.13 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Suwon City FC at home or Suwon Bluewings away?
Suwon City FC's home record (1.52 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Suwon City FC at home: 1.52 PPG; Suwon Bluewings away: 1.03 PPG.
Have Suwon City FC or Suwon Bluewings been keeping clean sheets recently?
Suwon City FC have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, Suwon Bluewings in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Suwon City FC and Suwon Bluewings runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 12 November 2023, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 25 Aug 2021, when Suwon City FC won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Suwon City FC's record when hosting Suwon Bluewings specifically: 4W 0D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Suwon City FC
0
Draws
3
Suwon Bluewings
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Suwon City FC and Suwon Bluewings?
From 10 meetings on record, Suwon City FC have won 7, Suwon Bluewings have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Suwon City FC and Suwon Bluewings last play each other?
They last met on 12 November 2023, when Suwon City FC 2-3 Suwon Bluewings.
Who has won more matches between Suwon City FC and Suwon Bluewings?
Suwon City FC have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Suwon City FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Suwon Bluewings see a goal before the break in 52% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Suwon City FC 71%, Suwon Bluewings 39% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 74% (Suwon City FC) and 45% (Suwon Bluewings). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 45% and 13% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Suwon Bluewings in 45%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Suwon City FC home games / Suwon Bluewings away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Suwon City FC play Suwon Bluewings?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 71% of Suwon City FC's recent matches and 39% of Suwon Bluewings's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Suwon City FC vs Suwon Bluewings usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 74% of Suwon City FC's matches and 45% of Suwon Bluewings's.
Do Suwon City FC and Suwon Bluewings tend to score early?
Suwon City FC have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Suwon Bluewings in 52% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Suwon City FC cruise to a comfortable 4-2 victory over Suwon Bluewings.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Suwon City FC beat Suwon Bluewings 4-2 at Suwon Sports Complex, Regular Season - 27, in the K League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Suwon City FC 1.97 xG and Suwon Bluewings 1.39 xG, a combined 3.36. The scoreboard read 4-2 for 6 actual goals. Suwon City FC beat their projection by 2.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Suwon City FC attack 1.39 / defence 1.47 against Suwon Bluewings attack 0.76 / defence 1.09, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Suwon City FC 51% | Draw 23% | Suwon Bluewings 26%, with Suwon City FC to win its most likely call at 51%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 43% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Suwon City FC 60%, Suwon Bluewings 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Suwon City FC's trading profile (62 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Suwon Bluewings's trading profile (62 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Suwon City FC 1.31 PPG, Suwon Bluewings 1.13 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Suwon City FC win broke the near-deadlock. Suwon City FC (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.77 average — above their attacking norm. Suwon Bluewings (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.94 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.29 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.