Suwon City FC 2-2 Gimcheon Sangmu FC – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Suwon City FC at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Suwon City FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Gimcheon Sangmu FC make the trip to Suwon Sports Complex to face Suwon City FC in K League 1, Relegation Round - 1. The match kicks off on Sunday 2 October 2022 at 08:30 UTC.
Form
Suwon City FC (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 K League 1 fixtures this term — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D W D W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Suwon City FC's form when playing at home: 6W 2D 2L across 10 games at Suwon Sports Complex this term (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Suwon City FC are significantly better at Suwon Sports Complex than their overall form suggests.
Gimcheon Sangmu FC's overall K League 1 record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: D W L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in K League 1 this season, Gimcheon Sangmu FC have posted 2W 4D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.50 vs 1.10 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Suwon City FC register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Gimcheon Sangmu FC in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Suwon City FC lead 2W to 0W over the last 2 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 13 Sep 2022, ended 2–1 with Suwon City FC winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Suwon City FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (33 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 81% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
Gimcheon Sangmu FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (33 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Suwon City FC 61% versus Gimcheon Sangmu FC 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Suwon City FC 61% | Gimcheon Sangmu FC 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Suwon City FC 1.63 xG and Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1.33 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Suwon City FC attack 1.280 / defence 1.217 | Gimcheon Sangmu FC attack 0.884 / defence 0.911. League average goals — home 1.396 / away 1.240. Suwon City FC carry an above-average attack strength of 1.280 — their λ of 1.63 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 66 Suwon City FC games / 33 Gimcheon Sangmu FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Suwon City FC 44% | Draw 24% | Gimcheon Sangmu FC 31%. Fair-value odds: Suwon City FC 2.27 | Draw 4.17 | Gimcheon Sangmu FC 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.96. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.96 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Suwon City FC at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Suwon City FC if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.96 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 57% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Suwon City FC 70% | Gimcheon Sangmu FC 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Suwon City FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC | Competition: K League 1, Relegation Round - 1 | Venue: Suwon Sports Complex • Kick-off: Sunday 2 Oct 2022, 08:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Suwon City FC 44% | Draw 24% | Gimcheon Sangmu FC 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 59% | xG Suwon City FC 1.63 / Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1.33 • Poisson strength factors: Suwon City FC attack 1.280 / def 1.217 | Gimcheon Sangmu FC attack 0.884 / def 0.911 | league avg home 1.396 / away 1.240 • Poisson stance: Suwon City FC (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.63
Suwon City FC xG
Expected Goals
1.33
Gimcheon Sangmu FC xG
59%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Suwon City FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC kick off?
Suwon City FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC kicked off at 08:30 on Sunday 2 October 2022 at Suwon Sports Complex.
What was the final score in Suwon City FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
Suwon City FC 2 - 2 Gimcheon Sangmu FC.
Where is Suwon City FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC being played?
The match is being played at Suwon Sports Complex.
What competition is Suwon City FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC part of?
Suwon City FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC is a Relegation Round - 1 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Suwon City FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
Our statistical model gives Suwon City FC a 44% chance of winning, Gimcheon Sangmu FC a 31% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Suwon City FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Suwon City FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Suwon City FC and Gimcheon Sangmu FC will score (BTTS).
Will Suwon City FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Suwon City FC and Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
Record (2 meetings): Suwon City FC 2W | Draws 0 | Gimcheon Sangmu FC 0W.
What form are Suwon City FC and Gimcheon Sangmu FC in?
Suwon City FC (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-W-D-W-L. Gimcheon Sangmu FC (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Suwon City FC's attack at 1.28x the league average against Gimcheon Sangmu FC's defence at 0.91x — combine the two and it projects 1.63 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Gimcheon Sangmu FC's attack (0.88x) against Suwon City FC's defence (1.22x) — and the away total comes out at 1.33.
These ratings are built from 66/33 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 1-2 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Suwon City FC Win
44%
2.25
24%
4.13
31%
3.18
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
1 – 0
8.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.63
Suwon City FC xG
Total xG
2.96
1.33
Gimcheon Sangmu FC xG
2.25
44%
Home win
4.13
24%
Draw
3.18
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.69
41%
BTTS No
2.45
Clean Sheet
26%
3.79
20%
5.09
Win to Nil
12%
8.54
6%
16.22
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 6.9 | 4.6 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.4 | 11.2 | 7.5 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 9.1 | 6.1 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 5.0 | 3.3 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 2.0 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Suwon City FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Suwon City FC and Gimcheon Sangmu FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.63 expected goals for Suwon City FC and 1.33 for Gimcheon Sangmu FC, a combined total of 2.96.
How confident is the prediction model for Suwon City FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Suwon City FC come into this having played 33 games, going 12W 8D 13L for 1.33 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-D-W-L.
On the other side, Gimcheon Sangmu FC sit at 1.03 PPG from 33 outings (8W 10D 15L), a run that reads D-W-L-L-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.33 PPG for Suwon City FC against 1.03 for Gimcheon Sangmu FC. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Suwon City FC's home form reads 7W 3D 6L across 16 games on their own ground, a 1.50 PPG return.
Away from home, Gimcheon Sangmu FC have taken 0.94 points per game from 16 outings (3W 6D 7L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Suwon City FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Suwon City FC are averaging 1.55 goals scored and 1.61 conceded per game recently; Gimcheon Sangmu FC are on 1.18 scored and 1.21 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Suwon City FC have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Last 33 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Suwon City FC
Current Season
Gimcheon Sangmu FC
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Suwon City FC and Gimcheon Sangmu FC in coming into this match?
Suwon City FC have gone 12W 8D 13L in their last 33 games (1.33 PPG), while Gimcheon Sangmu FC have gone 8W 10D 15L in their last 33 (1.03 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Suwon City FC at home or Gimcheon Sangmu FC away?
Suwon City FC's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Suwon City FC at home: 1.50 PPG; Gimcheon Sangmu FC away: 0.94 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to June 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. They last met on 23 August 2025, roughly 11 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Gimcheon Sangmu FC won 1-4 on 30 Mar 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Suwon City FC have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Gimcheon Sangmu FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Suwon City FC
2
Draws
4
Gimcheon Sangmu FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Suwon City FC and Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Suwon City FC have won 4, Gimcheon Sangmu FC have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Suwon City FC and Gimcheon Sangmu FC last play each other?
They last met on 23 August 2025, when Gimcheon Sangmu FC 3-2 Suwon City FC.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Suwon City FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Gimcheon Sangmu FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 75% for Suwon City FC, 56% for Gimcheon Sangmu FC — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 81% for Suwon City FC and 50% for Gimcheon Sangmu FC. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 56% and 31% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Gimcheon Sangmu FC in 31%; Gimcheon Sangmu FC in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Suwon City FC home games / Gimcheon Sangmu FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Suwon City FC play Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of Suwon City FC's games and 56% of Gimcheon Sangmu FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Suwon City FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 81% of Suwon City FC's matches and 50% of Gimcheon Sangmu FC's.
Do Suwon City FC and Gimcheon Sangmu FC tend to score early?
Suwon City FC have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, Gimcheon Sangmu FC in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Suwon City FC and Gimcheon Sangmu FC share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Suwon Sports Complex, Relegation Round - 1, as Suwon City FC and Gimcheon Sangmu FC drew 2-2 in the K League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Suwon City FC 1.63 xG and Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1.33 xG, a combined 2.96. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Suwon City FC attack 1.28 / defence 1.22 against Gimcheon Sangmu FC attack 0.88 / defence 0.91, drawn from 66/33 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Suwon City FC 44% | Draw 24% | Gimcheon Sangmu FC 31%, with Suwon City FC to win its most likely call at 44%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 34% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Suwon City FC 61%, Gimcheon Sangmu FC 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Suwon City FC's trading profile (33 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Gimcheon Sangmu FC's trading profile (33 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Suwon City FC 1.33 PPG, Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1.03 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Gimcheon Sangmu FC (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.19 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.