Suwon City FC 4-0 Gangwon FC – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Gangwon FC at 40% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Suwon City FC vs Gangwon FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Gangwon FC make the trip to Suwon Sports Complex to face Suwon City FC in K League 1, Championship Round - 4. The match kicks off on Saturday 9 November 2024 at 07:30 UTC.
Form
Suwon City FC (all games): 2W 3D 5L across 10 K League 1 fixtures this term — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L D D L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
In front of their own supporters this season, Suwon City FC have posted 4W 2D 4L at Suwon Sports Complex — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
Gangwon FC have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 K League 1 outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: D W W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Gangwon FC's away record: 3W 1D 6L from 10 road trips in K League 1 this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.90 PPG for Suwon City FC against 1.40 for Gangwon FC. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Suwon City FC lead 1W to 3W over the last 6 encounters, with 2 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 6 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 1 Sep 2024, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Suwon City FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (76 games, 37 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games).
Gangwon FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (76 games, 37 at away): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 49% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Suwon City FC 59% versus Gangwon FC 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Suwon City FC 55% | Gangwon FC 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Suwon City FC 1.63 xG and Gangwon FC 1.69 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Suwon City FC attack 1.053 / defence 1.390 | Gangwon FC attack 0.985 / defence 1.059. League average goals — home 1.459 / away 1.233. Data: 66 Suwon City FC games / 66 Gangwon FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Suwon City FC 37% | Draw 23% | Gangwon FC 40%. Fair-value odds: Suwon City FC 2.70 | Draw 4.35 | Gangwon FC 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 23% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.31. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.31 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (1.63 / 1.69) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Gangwon FC are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Gangwon FC if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.31 combined xG gives a 64% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 65%. Form rates are neutral: Suwon City FC 50% | Gangwon FC 50%.
The outsider holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Suwon City FC vs Gangwon FC | Competition: K League 1, Championship Round - 4 | Venue: Suwon Sports Complex • Kick-off: Saturday 9 Nov 2024, 07:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Suwon City FC 37% | Draw 23% | Gangwon FC 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 65% | xG Suwon City FC 1.63 / Gangwon FC 1.69 • Poisson strength factors: Suwon City FC attack 1.053 / def 1.390 | Gangwon FC attack 0.985 / def 1.059 | league avg home 1.459 / away 1.233 • Poisson stance: Gangwon FC (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.63
Suwon City FC xG
Expected Goals
1.69
Gangwon FC xG
65%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Suwon City FC vs Gangwon FC kick off?
Suwon City FC vs Gangwon FC kicked off at 07:30 on Saturday 9 November 2024 at Suwon Sports Complex.
What was the final score in Suwon City FC vs Gangwon FC?
Suwon City FC 4 - 0 Gangwon FC.
Where is Suwon City FC vs Gangwon FC being played?
The match is being played at Suwon Sports Complex.
What competition is Suwon City FC vs Gangwon FC part of?
Suwon City FC vs Gangwon FC is a Championship Round - 4 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Suwon City FC vs Gangwon FC?
Our statistical model gives Suwon City FC a 37% chance of winning, Gangwon FC a 40% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Gangwon FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Suwon City FC vs Gangwon FC?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Suwon City FC and Gangwon FC will score (BTTS).
Will Suwon City FC vs Gangwon FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between Suwon City FC and Gangwon FC?
Record (6 meetings): Suwon City FC 1W | Draws 2 | Gangwon FC 3W.
What form are Suwon City FC and Gangwon FC in?
Suwon City FC (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-D-D-L-L. Gangwon FC (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-W-W-W-L.
What do the betting odds say about Suwon City FC vs Gangwon FC?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Suwon City FC's attack at 1.05x the league average against Gangwon FC's defence at 1.06x — combine the two and it projects 1.63 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Gangwon FC's attack (0.98x) against Suwon City FC's defence (1.39x) — and the away total comes out at 1.69.
These ratings are built from 66/66 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.4%), 2-1 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Gangwon FC Win
37%
2.69
23%
4.36
40%
2.51
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.4%
Away win
2 – 1
8.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.63
Suwon City FC xG
Total xG
3.31
1.69
Gangwon FC xG
2.69
37%
Home win
4.36
23%
Draw
2.51
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.53
35%
BTTS No
2.90
Clean Sheet
18%
5.41
20%
5.08
Win to Nil
7%
14.53
8%
12.77
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.6 | 6.1 | 5.2 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 5.9 | 10.0 | 8.4 | 4.7 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 8.1 | 6.8 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 4.4 | 3.7 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.8 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Suwon City FC vs Gangwon FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.3%.
How many goals are Suwon City FC and Gangwon FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.63 expected goals for Suwon City FC and 1.69 for Gangwon FC, a combined total of 3.31.
How confident is the prediction model for Suwon City FC vs Gangwon FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 76 outings, Suwon City FC have picked up 1.13 PPG on a 23W 17D 36L record — L-D-D-L-L across the most recent five.
Gangwon FC's form line: 25W 24D 27L from 76 games, 1.30 PPG, last five D-W-W-W-L.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.13 PPG for Suwon City FC against 1.30 for Gangwon FC. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Suwon City FC have posted 1.19 PPG from 37 outings (12W 8D 17L).
On the road, Gangwon FC have gone 10W 11D 16L from 37 away games — 1.11 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Suwon City FC are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game recently; Gangwon FC are on 1.22 scored and 1.24 conceded.
Last 76 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Suwon City FC
Current Season
Gangwon FC
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Suwon City FC and Gangwon FC in coming into this match?
Suwon City FC have gone 23W 17D 36L in their last 76 games (1.13 PPG), while Gangwon FC have gone 25W 24D 27L in their last 76 (1.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Suwon City FC at home or Gangwon FC away?
Suwon City FC's home record (1.19 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Suwon City FC at home: 1.19 PPG; Gangwon FC away: 1.11 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since June 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. They last met on 21 September 2025, roughly 10 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Suwon City FC won 4-0 on 9 Nov 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Suwon City FC have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Gangwon FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Suwon City FC
3
Draws
4
Gangwon FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Suwon City FC and Gangwon FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Suwon City FC have won 3, Gangwon FC have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Suwon City FC and Gangwon FC last play each other?
They last met on 21 September 2025, when Suwon City FC 1-0 Gangwon FC.
Who has won more matches between Suwon City FC and Gangwon FC?
Gangwon FC have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Suwon City FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Gangwon FC see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Suwon City FC 62%, Gangwon FC 49% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Suwon City FC) and 35% (Gangwon FC).
On the defensive side: Gangwon FC in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Suwon City FC home games / Gangwon FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Suwon City FC play Gangwon FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Suwon City FC's games and 49% of Gangwon FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Suwon City FC vs Gangwon FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 57% of Suwon City FC's recent games and 35% of Gangwon FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Suwon City FC and Gangwon FC tend to score early?
Suwon City FC have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Gangwon FC in 54% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Suwon City FC run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Gangwon FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Suwon City FC beat Gangwon FC 4-0 at Suwon Sports Complex, Championship Round - 4, in the K League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Suwon City FC 1.63 xG and Gangwon FC 1.69 xG, a combined 3.31. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Suwon City FC beat their projection by 2.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Gangwon FC landed 1.7 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Suwon City FC attack 1.05 / defence 1.39 against Gangwon FC attack 0.98 / defence 1.06, drawn from 66/66 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Suwon City FC 37% | Draw 23% | Gangwon FC 40%, with Gangwon FC to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Suwon City FC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 37%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Suwon City FC 55%, Gangwon FC 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Suwon City FC's trading profile (76 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.
Gangwon FC's trading profile (76 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Suwon City FC 1.13 PPG, Gangwon FC 1.30 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Suwon City FC win broke the near-deadlock. Suwon City FC (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.49 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.81 average — tighter than their form line. Gangwon FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.89 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.24 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.