Suwon City FC 2-1 Daegu FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Suwon City FC at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this Suwon City FC vs Daegu FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Suwon City FC host Daegu FC at Suwon Sports Complex in K League 1, Regular Season - 12. Kick-off is scheduled for Tuesday 6 May 2025 at 11:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Suwon City FC — All Games: 1W 3D 6L from 10 K League 1 outings this season, averaging 0.60 points per game. Last five: D L L W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Suwon City FC's form when playing at home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 games at Suwon Sports Complex this term (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — Suwon City FC are significantly better at Suwon Sports Complex than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Daegu FC stand at 2W 4D 4L from 10 K League 1 matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D L L L W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 2.00. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
When travelling in K League 1 this season, Daegu FC have posted 2W 3D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Suwon City FC at 0.60 PPG versus Daegu FC's 1.00. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 7 previous meetings, Suwon City FC have won 1, Daegu FC 2, with 4 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 7 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.1 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 22 Feb 2025, ended 1–3 with Daegu FC winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.1 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Suwon City FC in-play tendencies (78 games, 38 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games).
Daegu FC in-play tendencies (78 games, 38 at away): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Suwon City FC 59% versus Daegu FC 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Suwon City FC 56% | Daegu FC 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Suwon City FC 1.76 xG and Daegu FC 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Suwon City FC attack 1.090 / defence 1.151 | Daegu FC attack 0.958 / defence 1.335. League average goals — home 1.208 / away 1.020. Daegu FC bring a strong defensive rating of 1.335 — this is suppressing Suwon City FC's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 44 Suwon City FC games / 44 Daegu FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Suwon City FC 52% | Draw 23% | Daegu FC 24%. Fair-value odds: Suwon City FC 1.92 | Draw 4.35 | Daegu FC 4.17. Suwon City FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.88. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.88 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Suwon City FC at 52% — moderate model lean. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Suwon City FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.88 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 55% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.1 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Suwon City FC 50% | Daegu FC 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Suwon City FC vs Daegu FC | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Suwon Sports Complex • Kick-off: Tuesday 6 May 2025, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Suwon City FC 52% | Draw 23% | Daegu FC 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 56% | xG Suwon City FC 1.76 / Daegu FC 1.12 • Poisson strength factors: Suwon City FC attack 1.090 / def 1.151 | Daegu FC attack 0.958 / def 1.335 | league avg home 1.208 / away 1.020 • Poisson stance: Suwon City FC (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.76
Suwon City FC xG
Expected Goals
1.12
Daegu FC xG
56%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Suwon City FC vs Daegu FC kick off?
Suwon City FC vs Daegu FC kicked off at 11:00 on Tuesday 6 May 2025 at Suwon Sports Complex.
What was the final score in Suwon City FC vs Daegu FC?
Suwon City FC 2 - 1 Daegu FC.
Where is Suwon City FC vs Daegu FC being played?
The match is being played at Suwon Sports Complex.
What competition is Suwon City FC vs Daegu FC part of?
Suwon City FC vs Daegu FC is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Suwon City FC vs Daegu FC?
Our statistical model gives Suwon City FC a 52% chance of winning, Daegu FC a 24% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Suwon City FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Suwon City FC vs Daegu FC?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Suwon City FC and Daegu FC will score (BTTS).
Will Suwon City FC vs Daegu FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Suwon City FC and Daegu FC?
Record (7 meetings): Suwon City FC 1W | Draws 4 | Daegu FC 2W.
What form are Suwon City FC and Daegu FC in?
Suwon City FC (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.10 | L5 D-L-L-W-L. Daegu FC (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Suwon City FC's attack rating (1.09) and Daegu FC's defence rating (1.33), the model arrives at 1.76 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Daegu FC's attack versus Suwon City FC's defence, projects 1.12 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Suwon City FC Win
52%
1.91
23%
4.26
24%
4.12
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.8%
Home win
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.76
Suwon City FC xG
Total xG
2.88
1.12
Daegu FC xG
1.91
52%
Home win
4.26
23%
Draw
4.12
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.27
Clean Sheet
32%
3.08
17%
5.81
Win to Nil
17%
5.90
4%
23.94
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 6.3 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 11.1 | 6.2 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 9.7 | 5.5 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.1 | 5.7 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.5 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Suwon City FC vs Daegu FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Suwon City FC and Daegu FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.76 expected goals for Suwon City FC and 1.12 for Daegu FC, a combined total of 2.88.
How confident is the prediction model for Suwon City FC vs Daegu FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Suwon City FC's recent record stands at 24W 17D 37L from 78 games, a 1.14 PPG return, with D-L-L-W-L in the last five.
Daegu FC, meanwhile, have gone 23W 27D 28L across 78 games — 1.23 PPG, with D-L-L-L-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Suwon City FC on 1.14 PPG, Daegu FC on 1.23. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Suwon City FC have managed 13W 8D 17L from 38 games — 1.24 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Daegu FC's away record stands at 10W 10D 18L across 38 trips, a 1.05 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Suwon City FC are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.76 conceded per game recently; Daegu FC are on 1.19 scored and 1.28 conceded.
Last 78 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Suwon City FC
Current Season
Daegu FC
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Suwon City FC and Daegu FC in coming into this match?
Suwon City FC have gone 24W 17D 37L in their last 78 games (1.14 PPG), while Daegu FC have gone 23W 27D 28L in their last 78 (1.23 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Suwon City FC at home or Daegu FC away?
Suwon City FC's home record (1.24 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Suwon City FC at home: 1.24 PPG; Daegu FC away: 1.05 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to April 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. They last met on 2 November 2025, roughly 10 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Suwon City FC's record when hosting Daegu FC specifically: 2W 3D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Suwon City FC
5
Draws
3
Daegu FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Suwon City FC and Daegu FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Suwon City FC have won 2, Daegu FC have won 3, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Suwon City FC and Daegu FC last play each other?
They last met on 2 November 2025, when Suwon City FC 1-1 Daegu FC.
Who has won more matches between Suwon City FC and Daegu FC?
Daegu FC have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Suwon City FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Daegu FC see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Suwon City FC 60%, Daegu FC 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Suwon City FC) and 42% (Daegu FC).
On the defensive side: Daegu FC in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Suwon City FC home games / Daegu FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Suwon City FC play Daegu FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Suwon City FC's games and 50% of Daegu FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Suwon City FC vs Daegu FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 58% of Suwon City FC's recent games and 42% of Daegu FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Suwon City FC and Daegu FC tend to score early?
Suwon City FC have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Daegu FC in 53% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Suwon City FC edge out Daegu FC 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Suwon City FC beat Daegu FC 2-1 at Suwon Sports Complex, Regular Season - 12, in the K League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Suwon City FC 1.76 xG and Daegu FC 1.12 xG, a combined 2.88. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Suwon City FC attack 1.09 / defence 1.15 against Daegu FC attack 0.96 / defence 1.33, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Suwon City FC 52% | Draw 23% | Daegu FC 24%, with Suwon City FC to win its most likely call at 52%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Suwon City FC 56%, Daegu FC 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Suwon City FC's trading profile (78 games, 38 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Daegu FC's trading profile (78 games, 38 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Suwon City FC 1.14 PPG, Daegu FC 1.23 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Suwon City FC win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.