Suwon City FC 2-2 Daegu FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Suwon City FC at 52% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Suwon City FC vs Daegu FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Suwon City FC host Daegu FC at Suwon Sports Complex in K League 1, Regular Season - 23. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 14 July 2024 at 11:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Suwon City FC — All Games: 6W 1D 3L from 10 K League 1 outings this season, averaging 1.90 points per game. Last five: L W W D W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Suwon City FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Suwon City FC's form when playing at home: 6W 1D 3L across 10 games at Suwon Sports Complex this term (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Daegu FC stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 K League 1 matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W L L D D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Daegu FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in K League 1 this season, Daegu FC have posted 2W 2D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
On current form, Suwon City FC have the edge — a 0.80 PPG advantage (1.90 vs 1.10) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 5 previous meetings, Suwon City FC have won 1, Daegu FC 1, with 3 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 5 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 2.8 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 29 May 2024, ended 2–0 with Suwon City FC winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 2.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Suwon City FC in-play tendencies (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Daegu FC in-play tendencies (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Suwon City FC 60% versus Daegu FC 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Suwon City FC 55% | Daegu FC 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Suwon City FC 1.40 xG and Daegu FC 0.76 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Suwon City FC attack 0.928 / defence 0.916 | Daegu FC attack 0.728 / defence 1.023. League average goals — home 1.472 / away 1.136. Data: 55 Suwon City FC games / 55 Daegu FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Suwon City FC 52% | Draw 28% | Daegu FC 20%. Fair-value odds: Suwon City FC 1.92 | Draw 3.57 | Daegu FC 5.00. Suwon City FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.16. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.16 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Suwon City FC at 52% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Suwon City FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.16 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 37% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 2.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 40% on No. Form rates corroborate: Suwon City FC 50% | Daegu FC 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Suwon City FC vs Daegu FC | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Suwon Sports Complex • Kick-off: Sunday 14 Jul 2024, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Suwon City FC 52% | Draw 28% | Daegu FC 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 40% | xG Suwon City FC 1.40 / Daegu FC 0.76 • Poisson strength factors: Suwon City FC attack 0.928 / def 0.916 | Daegu FC attack 0.728 / def 1.023 | league avg home 1.472 / away 1.136 • Poisson stance: Suwon City FC (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.40
Suwon City FC xG
Expected Goals
0.76
Daegu FC xG
40%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Suwon City FC vs Daegu FC kick off?
Suwon City FC vs Daegu FC kicked off at 11:00 on Sunday 14 July 2024 at Suwon Sports Complex.
What was the final score in Suwon City FC vs Daegu FC?
Suwon City FC 2 - 2 Daegu FC.
Where is Suwon City FC vs Daegu FC being played?
The match is being played at Suwon Sports Complex.
What competition is Suwon City FC vs Daegu FC part of?
Suwon City FC vs Daegu FC is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Suwon City FC vs Daegu FC?
Our statistical model gives Suwon City FC a 52% chance of winning, Daegu FC a 20% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Suwon City FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Suwon City FC vs Daegu FC?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Suwon City FC and Daegu FC will score (BTTS).
Will Suwon City FC vs Daegu FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Suwon City FC and Daegu FC?
Record (5 meetings): Suwon City FC 1W | Draws 3 | Daegu FC 1W.
What form are Suwon City FC and Daegu FC in?
Suwon City FC (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-W-D-W. Daegu FC (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Suwon City FC's attack rating (0.93) and Daegu FC's defence rating (1.02), the model arrives at 1.40 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Daegu FC's attack versus Suwon City FC's defence, projects 0.76 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 55/55 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.6%. Close behind: 1-1 (13.9%), 0-0 (13.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Suwon City FC Win
52%
1.92
28%
3.63
20%
4.92
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
0 – 0
11.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.40
Suwon City FC xG
Total xG
2.16
0.76
Daegu FC xG
1.92
52%
Home win
3.63
28%
Draw
4.92
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.50
60%
BTTS No
1.67
Clean Sheet
47%
2.13
25%
4.04
Win to Nil
24%
4.09
5%
19.90
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.6 | 8.8 | 3.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 16.2 | 12.3 | 4.7 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.3 | 8.6 | 3.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.3 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.8 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Suwon City FC vs Daegu FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Suwon City FC and Daegu FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.40 expected goals for Suwon City FC and 0.76 for Daegu FC, a combined total of 2.16.
How confident is the prediction model for Suwon City FC vs Daegu FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Suwon City FC's recent record stands at 20W 12D 28L from 60 games, a 1.20 PPG return, with L-W-W-D-W in the last five. The sample for Suwon City FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Daegu FC, meanwhile, have gone 18W 21D 21L across 60 games — 1.25 PPG, with W-L-L-D-D in their last five. The sample for Daegu FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Suwon City FC on 1.20 PPG, Daegu FC on 1.25. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Suwon City FC have managed 11W 7D 12L from 30 games — 1.33 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Daegu FC's away record stands at 8W 7D 15L across 30 trips, a 1.03 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Suwon City FC are averaging 1.28 goals scored and 1.78 conceded per game recently; Daegu FC are on 1.05 scored and 1.20 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Suwon City FC have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Last 60 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Suwon City FC
Blended
Daegu FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Suwon City FC and Daegu FC in coming into this match?
Suwon City FC have gone 20W 12D 28L in their last 60 games (1.20 PPG), while Daegu FC have gone 18W 21D 21L in their last 60 (1.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Suwon City FC at home or Daegu FC away?
Suwon City FC's home record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Suwon City FC at home: 1.33 PPG; Daegu FC away: 1.03 PPG.
Have Suwon City FC or Daegu FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Suwon City FC have kept a clean sheet in 17% of their recent games, Daegu FC in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to April 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. They last met on 2 November 2025, roughly 9 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Suwon City FC's record when hosting Daegu FC specifically: 2W 3D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Suwon City FC
5
Draws
3
Daegu FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Suwon City FC and Daegu FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Suwon City FC have won 2, Daegu FC have won 3, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Suwon City FC and Daegu FC last play each other?
They last met on 2 November 2025, when Suwon City FC 1-1 Daegu FC.
Who has won more matches between Suwon City FC and Daegu FC?
Daegu FC have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Suwon City FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Daegu FC see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Suwon City FC 63%, Daegu FC 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Suwon City FC) and 40% (Daegu FC).
On the defensive side: Daegu FC in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Suwon City FC home games / Daegu FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Suwon City FC play Daegu FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 63% of Suwon City FC's games and 47% of Daegu FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Suwon City FC vs Daegu FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Suwon City FC's recent games and 40% of Daegu FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Suwon City FC and Daegu FC tend to score early?
Suwon City FC have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Daegu FC in 53% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Suwon City FC and Daegu FC share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Suwon City FC and Daegu FC finished level at 2-2 at Suwon Sports Complex, Regular Season - 23, in the K League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Suwon City FC 1.40 xG and Daegu FC 0.76 xG, a combined 2.16. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Daegu FC outscored their 0.76 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Suwon City FC attack 0.93 / defence 0.92 against Daegu FC attack 0.73 / defence 1.02, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Suwon City FC 52% | Draw 28% | Daegu FC 20%, with Suwon City FC to win its most likely call at 52%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. Over 3.5 was 17% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Suwon City FC 55%, Daegu FC 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Suwon City FC's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Daegu FC's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Suwon City FC 1.20 PPG, Daegu FC 1.25 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Daegu FC (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.90 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.