Suwon City FC 2-3 Bucheon FC 1995 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Suwon City FC at 52%, yet in-form Bucheon FC 1995 provide a compelling counter-argument — this Suwon City FC vs Bucheon FC 1995 fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A K League 1 encounter, Final sees Bucheon FC 1995 travel to Suwon Sports Complex to take on Suwon City FC. The game is scheduled for Monday 8 December 2025, 10:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Suwon City FC stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 K League 1 matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D L W L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
At home at Suwon Sports Complex, Suwon City FC have gone 4W 2D 4L this season (10 games, 1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Bucheon FC 1995 — All Games: 1W 0D 0L from 1 K League 1 fixtures this season — 3.00 PPG. Last five: W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 1 games (100%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Bucheon FC 1995 have played only a handful of K League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Bucheon FC 1995 are 1.90 PPG ahead (3.00 vs 1.10), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Suwon City FC, 1 for Bucheon FC 1995 and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The last 1 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 5 Dec 2025, ended 0–1 with Bucheon FC 1995 winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Suwon City FC 1.85 xG and Bucheon FC 1995 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Suwon City FC attack 1.064 / defence 1.126 | Bucheon FC 1995 attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.509 / away 1.226. Data: 66 Suwon City FC games / 0 Bucheon FC 1995 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Suwon City FC 52% | Draw 24% | Bucheon FC 1995 23%. Fair-value odds: Suwon City FC 1.92 | Draw 4.17 | Bucheon FC 1995 4.35. Suwon City FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 3.02. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.02 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Suwon City FC as the most likely outcome at 52% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Bucheon FC 1995 (3.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Suwon City FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.02 combined xG gives a 58% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 2.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Suwon City FC vs Bucheon FC 1995 | Competition: K League 1, Final | Venue: Suwon Sports Complex • Kick-off: Monday 8 Dec 2025, 10:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Suwon City FC 52% | Draw 24% | Bucheon FC 1995 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 59% | xG Suwon City FC 1.85 / Bucheon FC 1995 1.17 • Poisson strength factors: Suwon City FC attack 1.064 / def 1.126 | Bucheon FC 1995 attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.509 / away 1.226 • Poisson stance: Suwon City FC (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.85
Suwon City FC xG
Expected Goals
1.17
Bucheon FC 1995 xG
59%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Suwon City FC vs Bucheon FC 1995 kick off?
Suwon City FC vs Bucheon FC 1995 kicked off at 10:00 on Monday 8 December 2025 at Suwon Sports Complex.
What was the final score in Suwon City FC vs Bucheon FC 1995?
Suwon City FC 2 - 3 Bucheon FC 1995.
Where is Suwon City FC vs Bucheon FC 1995 being played?
The match is being played at Suwon Sports Complex.
What competition is Suwon City FC vs Bucheon FC 1995 part of?
Suwon City FC vs Bucheon FC 1995 is a Final fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Suwon City FC vs Bucheon FC 1995?
Our statistical model gives Suwon City FC a 52% chance of winning, Bucheon FC 1995 a 23% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Suwon City FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Suwon City FC vs Bucheon FC 1995?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Suwon City FC and Bucheon FC 1995 will score (BTTS).
Will Suwon City FC vs Bucheon FC 1995 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Suwon City FC and Bucheon FC 1995?
Record (1 meetings): Suwon City FC 0W | Draws 0 | Bucheon FC 1995 1W.
What form are Suwon City FC and Bucheon FC 1995 in?
Suwon City FC (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-L-W-L-L. Bucheon FC 1995 (all comps): 1W-0D-0L in 1 | 3.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.00 | L5 W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Suwon City FC's attack at 1.06x the league average against Bucheon FC 1995's defence at 1.15x — combine the two and it projects 1.85 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Bucheon FC 1995's attack versus Suwon City FC's defence, projects 1.17 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 66/0 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Suwon City FC Win
52%
1.91
24%
4.11
23%
4.29
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
1 – 0
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.85
Suwon City FC xG
Total xG
3.02
1.17
Bucheon FC 1995 xG
1.91
52%
Home win
4.11
24%
Draw
4.29
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.70
41%
BTTS No
2.44
Clean Sheet
31%
3.23
16%
6.34
Win to Nil
16%
6.17
4%
27.20
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 5.7 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.0 | 10.6 | 6.2 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 9.8 | 5.7 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.1 | 6.0 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.4 | 2.8 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Suwon City FC vs Bucheon FC 1995?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are Suwon City FC and Bucheon FC 1995 expected to score?
The model projects 1.85 expected goals for Suwon City FC and 1.17 for Bucheon FC 1995, a combined total of 3.02.
How confident is the prediction model for Suwon City FC vs Bucheon FC 1995?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 1 outings, Suwon City FC have picked up 0.00 PPG on a 0W 0D 1L record — L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Suwon City FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Bucheon FC 1995's form line: 1W 0D 0L from 1 games, 3.00 PPG, last five W. It's still early in the season for Bucheon FC 1995, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Bucheon FC 1995 are the form team by 3.00 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Suwon City FC.
The Goals Picture
Suwon City FC are averaging 0.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Bucheon FC 1995 are on 1.00 scored and 0.00 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Suwon City FC have seen both teams score in 0% of their recent games; Bucheon FC 1995 in 0%.
Defensively: Bucheon FC 1995 in 100% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 1 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Suwon City FC
Early Season
Bucheon FC 1995
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Suwon City FC and Bucheon FC 1995 in coming into this match?
Suwon City FC have gone 0W 0D 1L in their last 1 games (0.00 PPG), while Bucheon FC 1995 have gone 1W 0D 0L in their last 1 (3.00 PPG).
Have Suwon City FC or Bucheon FC 1995 been keeping clean sheets recently?
Suwon City FC have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, Bucheon FC 1995 in 100%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Suwon City FC and Bucheon FC 1995 runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. They last met on 8 December 2025, roughly 9 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Suwon City FC
0
Draws
2
Bucheon FC 1995
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Suwon City FC and Bucheon FC 1995?
From 2 meetings on record, Suwon City FC have won 0, Bucheon FC 1995 have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Suwon City FC and Bucheon FC 1995 last play each other?
They last met on 8 December 2025, when Suwon City FC 2-3 Bucheon FC 1995.
Who has won more matches between Suwon City FC and Bucheon FC 1995?
Bucheon FC 1995 have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Suwon City FC home games / Bucheon FC 1995 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Suwon City FC play Bucheon FC 1995?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of Suwon City FC's recent matches and 0% of Bucheon FC 1995's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Suwon City FC vs Bucheon FC 1995 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Suwon City FC's recent games and 0% of Bucheon FC 1995's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Suwon City FC and Bucheon FC 1995 tend to score early?
Suwon City FC have had a goal before half-time in 0% of their recent matches, Bucheon FC 1995 in 0% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Bucheon FC 1995 defy the odds to beat Suwon City FC 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bucheon FC 1995 beat Suwon City FC 2-3 at Suwon Sports Complex, Final, in the K League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Suwon City FC 1.85 xG and Bucheon FC 1995 1.17 xG, a combined 3.02. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Bucheon FC 1995 outscored their 1.17 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Suwon City FC attack 1.06 / defence 1.13 against Bucheon FC 1995 attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 66/0 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Suwon City FC 52% | Draw 24% | Bucheon FC 1995 23%, with Suwon City FC to win its most likely call at 52%. Instead the game produced a Bucheon FC 1995 win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 36% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 0% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Suwon City FC 0%, Bucheon FC 1995 0%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 0%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Bucheon FC 1995 arrived the stronger side — 3.00 PPG against 0.00. That form edge translated into the three points. Suwon City FC scored 2 against a 0.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Bucheon FC 1995 scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.