Suwon Bluewings 2-3 Gangwon FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Suwon Bluewings at 49%, yet in-form Gangwon FC provide a compelling counter-argument — this Suwon Bluewings vs Gangwon FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a K League 1 clash, Regular Season - 23 as Suwon Bluewings welcome Gangwon FC to Suwon World Cup Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 27 August 2022 at 10:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Suwon Bluewings stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 K League 1 matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D W L W W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Suwon Bluewings, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Suwon World Cup Stadium, Suwon Bluewings have gone 4W 4D 2L this season (10 games, 1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Gangwon FC — All Games: 6W 0D 4L from 10 K League 1 fixtures this season — 1.80 PPG. Last five: L W L W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Gangwon FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Gangwon FC's away record: 2W 1D 7L from 10 road trips in K League 1 this season (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Gangwon FC are 0.60 PPG ahead (1.80 vs 1.20), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Suwon Bluewings, 1 for Gangwon FC and 3 shared spoils from 5 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 5 meetings have averaged 3.2 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 29 May 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Suwon Bluewings trading profile (65 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
Gangwon FC trading profile (65 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Suwon Bluewings 46% versus Gangwon FC 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Suwon Bluewings 46% | Gangwon FC 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Suwon Bluewings 1.50 xG and Gangwon FC 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Suwon Bluewings attack 0.858 / defence 0.730 | Gangwon FC attack 1.052 / defence 1.217. League average goals — home 1.438 / away 1.255. Gangwon FC bring a strong defensive rating of 1.217 — this is suppressing Suwon Bluewings's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Suwon Bluewings's defence rating of 0.730 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 60 Suwon Bluewings games / 60 Gangwon FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Suwon Bluewings 49% | Draw 27% | Gangwon FC 24%. Fair-value odds: Suwon Bluewings 2.04 | Draw 3.70 | Gangwon FC 4.17. Suwon Bluewings hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.47. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.47 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Suwon Bluewings at 49% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Gangwon FC (1.80 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Suwon Bluewings offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.47 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 45% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.2 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 48% on No. Form rates are neutral: Suwon Bluewings 40% | Gangwon FC 70%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Suwon Bluewings vs Gangwon FC | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Suwon World Cup Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 27 Aug 2022, 10:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Suwon Bluewings 49% | Draw 27% | Gangwon FC 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 48% | xG Suwon Bluewings 1.50 / Gangwon FC 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: Suwon Bluewings attack 0.858 / def 0.730 | Gangwon FC attack 1.052 / def 1.217 | league avg home 1.438 / away 1.255 • Poisson stance: Suwon Bluewings (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.50
Suwon Bluewings xG
Expected Goals
0.96
Gangwon FC xG
48%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Suwon Bluewings vs Gangwon FC kick off?
Suwon Bluewings vs Gangwon FC kicked off at 10:00 on Saturday 27 August 2022 at Suwon World Cup Stadium.
What was the final score in Suwon Bluewings vs Gangwon FC?
Suwon Bluewings 2 - 3 Gangwon FC.
Where is Suwon Bluewings vs Gangwon FC being played?
The match is being played at Suwon World Cup Stadium.
What competition is Suwon Bluewings vs Gangwon FC part of?
Suwon Bluewings vs Gangwon FC is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Suwon Bluewings vs Gangwon FC?
Our statistical model gives Suwon Bluewings a 49% chance of winning, Gangwon FC a 24% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Suwon Bluewings the favourite.
Will both teams score in Suwon Bluewings vs Gangwon FC?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Suwon Bluewings and Gangwon FC will score (BTTS).
Will Suwon Bluewings vs Gangwon FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Suwon Bluewings and Gangwon FC?
Record (5 meetings): Suwon Bluewings 1W | Draws 3 | Gangwon FC 1W.
What form are Suwon Bluewings and Gangwon FC in?
Suwon Bluewings (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-W-L-W-W. Gangwon FC (all comps): 6W-0D-4L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Suwon Bluewings's attack rating (0.86) and Gangwon FC's defence rating (1.22), the model arrives at 1.50 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Gangwon FC's attack versus Suwon Bluewings's defence, projects 0.96 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 60/60 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.9%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.2%), 0-0 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Suwon Bluewings Win
49%
2.03
27%
3.72
24%
4.20
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
2 – 0
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.50
Suwon Bluewings xG
Total xG
2.47
0.96
Gangwon FC xG
2.03
49%
Home win
3.72
27%
Draw
4.20
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.06
52%
BTTS No
1.94
Clean Sheet
38%
2.62
22%
4.49
Win to Nil
19%
5.32
5%
18.86
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.5 | 8.2 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.8 | 12.3 | 5.9 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.6 | 9.2 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 4.6 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Suwon Bluewings vs Gangwon FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Suwon Bluewings and Gangwon FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.50 expected goals for Suwon Bluewings and 0.96 for Gangwon FC, a combined total of 2.47.
How confident is the prediction model for Suwon Bluewings vs Gangwon FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Suwon Bluewings come into this having played 65 games, going 19W 19D 27L for 1.17 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-L-W-W. The sample for Suwon Bluewings is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Gangwon FC sit at 1.22 PPG from 65 outings (20W 19D 26L), a run that reads L-W-L-W-L across their last five. The sample for Gangwon FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Suwon Bluewings on 1.17 PPG, Gangwon FC on 1.22. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Suwon Bluewings's home form reads 10W 11D 11L across 32 games on their own ground, a 1.28 PPG return.
Away from home, Gangwon FC have taken 0.75 points per game from 32 outings (5W 9D 18L). That's a step down from their 1.22 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Gangwon FC's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Suwon Bluewings come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Suwon Bluewings are averaging 1.03 goals scored and 1.28 conceded per game recently; Gangwon FC are on 1.23 scored and 1.34 conceded.
Last 65 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Suwon Bluewings
Blended
Gangwon FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Suwon Bluewings and Gangwon FC in coming into this match?
Suwon Bluewings have gone 19W 19D 27L in their last 65 games (1.17 PPG), while Gangwon FC have gone 20W 19D 26L in their last 65 (1.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Suwon Bluewings at home or Gangwon FC away?
Suwon Bluewings's home record (1.28 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Suwon Bluewings at home: 1.28 PPG; Gangwon FC away: 0.75 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Suwon Bluewings and Gangwon FC runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to March 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 2 December 2023, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 1 Aug 2021, when Gangwon FC won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Suwon Bluewings's record when hosting Gangwon FC specifically: 1W 4D 1L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Suwon Bluewings
5
Draws
2
Gangwon FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Suwon Bluewings and Gangwon FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Suwon Bluewings have won 3, Gangwon FC have won 2, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Suwon Bluewings and Gangwon FC last play each other?
They last met on 2 December 2023, when Suwon Bluewings 0-0 Gangwon FC.
Who has won more matches between Suwon Bluewings and Gangwon FC?
Suwon Bluewings have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Suwon Bluewings see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Gangwon FC see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Suwon Bluewings 50%, Gangwon FC 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Suwon Bluewings) and 53% (Gangwon FC).
On the defensive side: Suwon Bluewings keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Suwon Bluewings have failed to score in 31% of games; Gangwon FC in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Suwon Bluewings home games / Gangwon FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Suwon Bluewings play Gangwon FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Suwon Bluewings's recent matches and 59% of Gangwon FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Suwon Bluewings vs Gangwon FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Suwon Bluewings's recent games and 53% of Gangwon FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Shock result as Gangwon FC defy the odds to beat Suwon Bluewings 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Gangwon FC beat Suwon Bluewings 2-3 at Suwon World Cup Stadium, Regular Season - 23, in the K League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Suwon Bluewings 1.50 xG and Gangwon FC 0.96 xG, a combined 2.47. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Gangwon FC outscored their 0.96 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Suwon Bluewings attack 0.86 / defence 0.73 against Gangwon FC attack 1.05 / defence 1.22, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Suwon Bluewings 49% | Draw 27% | Gangwon FC 24%, with Suwon Bluewings to win its most likely call at 49%. Instead the game produced a Gangwon FC win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Suwon Bluewings 46%, Gangwon FC 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Suwon Bluewings's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
Gangwon FC's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Suwon Bluewings 1.17 PPG, Gangwon FC 1.22 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Gangwon FC win broke the near-deadlock. Suwon Bluewings (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.06 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.19 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Gangwon FC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.97 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.